Wednesday 29th March 2017

[SpectrumFX]

7 hours ago, hotairmail said:

The only things against all these ideas of a fudge, is that there really are some very pro exit people in the Tories AND the Tory Party see it as the way way to stay in office for a generation due to the electoral arithmetic.

Hopefully. I want out. A fudge is what I fear will happen, rather than what I want.

[spyguy]

12 hours ago, The XYY Man said:

What will happen on the 29th of March...?

Mrs XYY probably still won't be speaking to me 'cos I forgot the 28th of March is our wedding anniversary....

 

 

XYY

                                                                                                               

The dog's kennel is not the place to keep a sausage - Danish proverb

 

 

 

 

XYY, you're meant to be a smart man.

Should have got married on your birthday.

 

[DrMartinSanchez]

30 minutes ago, DEATH said:

I have been thinking of the scenarios that might stop it or delay it being triggered. Out of respect if a Royal gives up the battle, nuclear bomb on a European city, court case, plane flown into nuclear power plant, massive terrorist attacks, collapse in the markets, asteroid impact, Trump assassinated, viral outbreak, 9.0M earthquake in Peckham, Tsunami, EMP from the Sun, etc.

My money is on a bunch of allawackbars gunning down people in a large city.

[dgul]

59 minutes ago, DEATH said:

Maybe they should have waited another couple days then 2 years down the line say "April fool!".

I have been thinking of the scenarios that might stop it or delay it being triggered. Out of respect if a Royal gives up the battle, nuclear bomb on a European city, court case, plane flown into nuclear power plant, massive terrorist attacks, collapse in the markets, asteroid impact, Trump assassinated, viral outbreak, 9.0M earthquake in Peckham, Tsunami, EMP from the Sun, etc.

Maybe one or a combination of those by next Wednesday.

Political crisis following the death of a major Republican figure in Northern Ireland?

[DEATH]

I think I forgot the most likely one. Erdogan opening the floodgates to migrants in the next few days, might have May saying "now is not the right time, Europe is in crisis, we must stand together...."

Or maybe Erdogan declares war on the EU or fires a missile blowing up the Dutch or German parliament buildings.

I wouldn't put anything past the guy, he's a bit of a bugger and thinks he's the Islamic messiah, especially since surviving the coup attempt, he thinks he is the chosen one. He just got put down by Merkel, who is actually a woman believe it or not, not a good thing to be done to a Muslim man in public.

[spunko2010]

Erdogan doing any of those will just strengthen anti-EU feeling in this country and in mainland Europe.

I suspect a slew of court cases will be filed over the next few days delaying it until 2028.

[dgul]

1 hour ago, spunko2010 said:

Erdogan doing any of those will just strengthen anti-EU feeling in this country and in mainland Europe.

I suspect a slew of court cases will be filed over the next few days delaying it until 2028.

I keep expecting to hear something, but it is all quiet.  I can only presume that the remain camp have prepared a response, waiting for the news that the call was coming.  I mean, if they haven't then they're completely useless.

But I suppose they'll probably wait until week-today, just for maximum effect.

[workingpoor]

I think the driving force behind the "brexit means brexit" "will of the people" rhetoric is to try and placate and appease the 17.4 million leave voters whilst a fudge / compromise can be reached over a prolonged drawn out negotiating period,

thus putting a few years between the referendum and the chance of any large scale countrywide peaceful protests occuring.

Already today we see on the news that the EU will not meet to discuss article 50 until 29th april 

1 month delay there

and that negotiations will not start for at least 2 months 

so another 2 months there.

Mark my words: it will be announced that the 2 year negotiaing period has been extended right from the off, probably 3 years. There is provision for it and it will be agreed by the EU at the get go.

It is all being stage managed. 

 

 

[DEATH]

Meanwhile 1m+ EU citizens who have been here long term are applying for British Citizenship and will have full rights to vote in any 2nd referendum at the same time Brexiters are dying off in the hundreds/thousands each week.

Maybe the plan is to drag it out long enough that there is some sort of crisis then another referendum to keep FOM etc... which the Remainers will likely win due to the above.

 

[workingpoor]

The government know how to play it, they know that saying anything other than "will of the people" "the public have decided" "we will deliver the will of the people"

Would result in the country's standing as a "beacon of democracy" greatly diminshed on the world stage, 

Their problem now is how to fudge a compromise so it looks on paper like the "will of the people" "democracy" has been upheld without actually halting immigration or leaving the single market etc 

They even stalled to allow the courtcases so "the rule of law" could be shown to be upheld.

Now: what if i am correct in my prediction that the A50 2yr negotiating period will be extended from the off? 

If so then the public will see that the 9 months of "we need time to prepare for negotiations" was all a ruse to buy more time because there will actually be a longer than 2 yrs negotiating period. 

The second they came out with "we will not have a points based immigration system" in the immediate wake of the referendum result was very telling and should have alerted every voter.

The EU parliament will agree to an extention of negotiations right off the bat because they have French & German elections coming up this year. 

[the gardener]

28 minutes ago, DEATH said:

Meanwhile 1m+ EU citizens who have been here long term are applying for British Citizenship and will have full rights to vote in any 2nd referendum at the same time Brexiters are dying off in the hundreds/thousands each week.

Maybe the plan is to drag it out long enough that there is some sort of crisis then another referendum to keep FOM etc... which the Remainers will likely win due to the above.

 

It wouldn't surprise me really but I don't think it will happen.

I prefer to think that May has seen the writing on the wall with regards to uncontrolled immigration and is genuinely pushing ahead with Brexit with good intentions. Yes there have been delays but perhaps they are down to buying time to actually do some planning. Due to the utter catastrophe Cameron absolutely nobody in Government was prepared for the result. They thought they'd delayed the referendum long enough (25 years after Maastricht where a referendum would have been 90% reject the EU). They thought that so many people would be so used to the EU by now that a win for Remain was a dead cert.

If they try to gerrymander another referendum by fast-tracking several million EU citizens' British citizenship then I would say serious social unrest is on the cards. It would be a tipping point where large sections of the population just wouldn't accept the rule of law anymore. Politicians would soon be reminded that we are governed and policed by consent. I really don't believe that the Government are going to to down the road of cheating the people out of their decision to leave the EU. It really would be an absolute disaster for the UK.

*****s like Farron, Blair, Miller etc are playing with fire in trying to overturn the result. They will get burned if they persist.

[Neptune]

57 minutes ago, DEATH said:

Meanwhile 1m+ EU citizens who have been here long term are applying for British Citizenship and will have full rights to vote in any 2nd referendum at the same time Brexiters are dying off in the hundreds/thousands each week.

Maybe the plan is to drag it out long enough that there is some sort of crisis then another referendum to keep FOM etc... which the Remainers will likely win due to the above.

 

I would be  surprised if there is much of an EU to remain to  by the time they get around to organising another referendum.

 

[CunningPlan]

25 minutes ago, Neptune said:

I would be  surprised if there is much of an EU to remain to  by the time they get around to organising another referendum.

 

The sad fact is that is what I am pining my hopes on. I think we may be the first of the dominoes, but that is about all the referendum will achieve.

To be honest, collapsing the project and rescuing a common market from the ashes would actually be a great result.

[dgul]

1 hour ago, CunningPlan said:

The sad fact is that is what I am pining my hopes on. I think we may be the first of the dominoes, but that is about all the referendum will achieve.

To be honest, collapsing the project and rescuing a common market from the ashes would actually be a great result.

The EU is absolutely terrified of this.  The UK leaving will be punished, but imagine if France (say) leaves as well -- The UK and France in a trading partnership (nothing else) would be a massive stimulus for the likes of Belgium to leave the EU.

Which is why they'll (ie, Germany) will throw everything at the UK to make us suffer leaving.  We're actually lucky that DT is in the Whitehouse, as he can see the opportunity that supporting the UK will bring and will do a deal*.

[*Not that any deal will be stellar for the UK, but it looks like the EU will be happy to do a poor exit deal (for them) to maximise the UK's suffering, just because they want to dissuade any followers]

[DEATH]

We are Germany's biggest car export market. They try and damage us they could end up with a triple whammy.

The UK buying less cars from them because of a downturn. Tariffs on German cars being imported. People transferring their custom to Japanese and American cars that are much cheaper.

All this at a time when Germany needs to start getting it's migrants to work (nearly all of whom are unemployed - idle hands do the devil's work etc). Schengen could be flooded with another million migrants or more in 12 months if Turkey carries out it's threat.

Surely the above scenario(s) would be enough to see Merkel out of office (if she isn't anyway) if she plays hardball, well before Brexit negotiations are concluded.

[libspero]

7 hours ago, workingpoor said:

Already today we see on the news that the EU will not meet to discuss article 50 until 29th april 

1 month delay there

and that negotiations will not start for at least 2 months 

so another 2 months there.

Mark my words: it will be announced that the 2 year negotiating period has been extended right from the off, probably 3 years. There is provision for it and it will be agreed by the EU at the get go.

It is all being stage managed. 

I see it differently.

The EU will drag their feet for two reasons:

1  )    They can't agree on the colour of bananas,  let alone organise themselves into a position to quickly action any trade negotiations.

2  )    They are about to lose one of their biggest net contributing donors to the project.  What they really need most is our money..  and the longer they drag it out,  the longer we keep paying our subs while they scrabble around trying to work out who else is going to pick up the champagne tabs. 

[Senny Pijama]

On 20/03/2017 at 2:23 PM, spunko2010 said:

Closet Remainer May

Closet? She campaigned for Remain before the Referendum. How is that closet?

[dances with sheeple]

On ‎21‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 8:01 AM, DrMartinSanchez said:

My money is on a bunch of allawackbars gunning down people in a large city.

That just makes the desire for stronger borders, well stronger?

[workingpoor]

Uk parliament has just been the location of an attack many people are reportedly injured and at least one attacker shot by police breaking story.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39355940

[dances with sheeple]

On ‎20‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 7:23 PM, Neptune said:

I am.

IMO I get the impression she realised which way the wind is now blowing and is going with it. She is doing a fairly good job of getting us to Article 50 and beyond.

She has  a lot of powerful opposition here and on the continent, but I still have faith in her.  Overall I think she has been playing a good game on in all issues during her Premiership... so far, bar the fustercluck that was the budget and Hammond. She hasnt really put a foot wrong.

(I am surprised mind you, and expect to be proved totally wrong in the not too distant.)

Her mind will be even more focussed now no doubt?

[Trampa501]

On 21/03/2017 at 3:27 PM, Neptune said:

I would be  surprised if there is much of an EU to remain to  by the time they get around to organising another referendum.

 

You;re confused. It's the UK that will no longer exist within a few years. Well done.

[Byron]

13 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

You;re confused. It's the UK that will no longer exist within a few years. Well done.

I suspect that Scotland will remain in the UK.

I think that Wee Krankie has overplayed her hand. She is a rabid nationalist and many Scots do not like that. She does not have the skills of Salmon and may well be approaching her own Hilary Clinton moment.

[Byron]

Lets face it, Nationalism (and being Welsh, I have had a bellyful of it)

is invented and brought about by Poets, Dreamers, Teachers, Priests and Politicians.

Ordinary people could not really care less until the rhetoric, the speeches, the essays, the songs fire them up.

I once sang 'Rising of the Moon' the Wolfe Tone song in a Dublin pub. The locals were entranced and asked how I as a Welshman could be so imbued by the nationalist spirit.

They were trying to draw parallels between the Irish struggle and Wales.

Truth was, (although I dared not tell them, was that outside of 'Danny Boy' it was the only Irish song that I knew)

[Acid In The Punch Bowl]

Why isn't this thread going mental?

It's only bloody happened!

[winkie]