New Car Scrappage Scheme - Are they Getting Desperate?

[Bear Hug]

23 minutes ago, billybong said:

You can't be certain.  You don't know what 2030 holds.

Unless you are a former member of BoE monetary policy committee.  Then you can spout any nonsense you like with a 50-year time frame and papers will still publish it. 

[crazypabs]

23 hours ago, Tiger131 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I thought that when crude oil is refined there was x% composition of petrol and y% of diesel, usually here is more petrol than diesel. If diesel if outlawed then what will happen to the diesel composition in oil? Can crude oil just be refined then cracked into petrol only and if not it would be extremely wasteful to have to simply have to throw away the diesel composition.

they'd probably pump it back in to the earth

[The Young and the Nestless]

4 hours ago, regprentice said:

My brother in law had a nissan leaf And felt he saw a decrease in battery capacity over time.

According to the following article a 4 year old nissan leaf with 71k on the clock has a battery which can hold 80% of its original capacity and where the resistance built up through use has increased charging time by a third.

https://transportevolved.com/2015/04/14/staffcar-update-after-73100-miles-our-nissan-leaf-loses-its-second-capacity-bar/

What year was your brother in-law's leaf?

You have prompted me to research the different Leaf versions:

It looks like the 2011 Leaf AESC batteries were more degradable than the 2013 generation or latest 2016 generation. The 2011-era batteries had degradation depending on temperature, and speed of charging:

• 2011/2012 Nissan Leaf - 24 kWh AESC (LMO cells) sensitive to temperature and speed of charging.
• 2013 Nissan Leaf - 24 kWh AESC '2nd Gen' chemistry - - less sensitive to temperature or speed of charging (requires extra mounting kit to retro-fit to 2011 cars) see various links [1], [2], [3]
• 2016 Nissan Leaf - 30kWh AESC (NMC cells) less sensitive to temperature or speed of charging, 25% higher capacity, same physical volume, 21kg heavier. Not currently retrofittable to 2011-era Leaf (at time of posting).

So the explanation would be, the taxi driver I linked above uses a 2013 Leaf with '2nd Gen' chemistry battery (which did 100,000 miles, with 1,750 rapid charges and 7000 L2 charges, with 100% charges every night, and remain at 98% of original capacity) ...and the 'staff car' test on Transport Evolved which you linked uses a 2011 era Leaf with the 1st gen chemistry only maintained 79% with 73,100 miles.

The recent 30kWh battery (or future 40kWh battery) use latest chemistry and extra capacity, but the downside with the Nissan Leaf there is no battery capacity 'upgrade' available (yet) for 2011 era vehicles... Therefore there remains an advantage to buying a Renault/BMW/Tesla electric in that they offer future capacity and battery technology upgrades (whereas I am not sure why Nissan didn't build-in that upgrade-ability from the start). If Nissan enabled capacity upgrades for older vehicles that would certainly help confidence of purchase but perhaps they are worried the used marked would start to impact their new sales because the other components hold up well?

Either way, it would need more cases to fully 'prove' capacity loss is not a problem on the latest Leaf, but so far it does look 'fixed' and makes the used 2014 Leafs selling for £7000 look like a bargain (if it suits your use case). Edit: Found some more data here, looks to be mostly 2011 vehicles with the degradation problem and a handful of 2013 vehicles with one bar loss in hot climates.

Furthermore, the Panasonic batteries used in Toyota PHEVs and Teslas, and the Samsungs used in BMWs should all be technologically ahead of the AESC batteries.

Edited February 5, 2017 by The Young and the Nestless

[Confusion of VIs]

23 hours ago, Tiger131 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I thought that when crude oil is refined there was x% composition of petrol and y% of diesel, usually here is more petrol than diesel. If diesel if outlawed then what will happen to the diesel composition in oil? Can crude oil just be refined then cracked into petrol only and if not it would be extremely wasteful to have to simply have to throw away the diesel composition.

You can further refine (crack) the crude oil to convert more of it into lighter derivatives but it requires significantly more work and expense.   

Edited February 4, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[Sheeple Splinter]

This would be a good fit:

Quote

...Dyson has also been rumored to be working on an electric car. Last year, the Financial Times turned up government documents that revealed funding to help Dyson on this project. Dyson bought battery startup Sakti3 for $90 million in 2015, and pledged last year to spend 1 billion pounds ($1.2 billion) on battery development over five years, putting it in closer competition with Tesla. ...

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/dyson-hire-from-tesla-stokes-electric-car-expectations

and

Quote

... LONDON -- Aston Martin's former product development director has moved to Dyson, adding substance to reports that the consumer electronics maker is developing an electric car. ...

“We have historically recruited from a wide range of backgrounds, as we are a broad church and are developing a multitude of technologies,” a spokesman told Automotive News Europe in an email. He added that Dyson is planning to recruit an additional 3,000 engineers and scientists by 2020.

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20160922/ANE/160929953/aston-martin-loses-top-exec-to-dyson

[regprentice]

9 hours ago, The Young and the Nestless said:

What year was your brother in-law's leaf?

BiL worked for a green energy company and had a leaf as a company car. Probably around 3 years ago so likely to be a mk1. It was a lovely car, i believe top of the range, all red leather. 

I can understand the numbers you are quoting - they do suggest the batteries will not deplete meaningfully before non economic work required to the rest of the car (rust to bodywork, expensive major engine work etc).

If this is the case then why do the majority of people lease batteries? It only makes sese for an initial pcp buyer over up to 3 years as it reduces the element of the initial sticker price related to the batteries.

-The renault zoe aims for a cheap forecourt sticker price by excluding the battery from the price entirely and offering a lease. A non battery lease model called the izoe costs 5k more.

-Renault tie their battery leasing costs to the annual mileage (ie 80 quid a month for 7500 miles a year).

-They offer to replace or repair the battery when its capacity drops under 75%

- (in some areas) as part of the battery lease they offer two weeks free ICE car rental a year to help people get over range anxiety (for the big family holiday i assume)

- if you stop paying your lease renault can remotely prevent your car from charging (a module which can be disabled on the grey market - invalidates warranty)

- the second hand pricing differential on lease vs non lease battery cars only seems to be £500 after as little as 2 years in some cases.

- Under the renault scheme at least, if the seller fails to get their buyer to sign a new lease then the seller remains liable for the lease for as long as the car runs. Several people on the renault forums who have continued to pay the battery lease for 2 or 3 months after part exchanging their car because the dealerships havent ended their lease til they had a buyer for the car.(they did get refunds eventually as the dealership should have paid for that period) 

More significant negatives there than positives imho. I can see that you are 'beating the system' by buying a battery car without a lease. I cant imagine many sellers will want to pick up an ongoing battery lease on a fairly small car when it costs not much less that the full lease on a brand new small car (ICE). That said, in the age/price combination we are talking about there are only around 20 leaf/zoes available in total in the uk (autotrader). 

I appreciate that you arent arguing in favour of battery leasing but the observation is relevant to the thread as a whole. As a buyer its the most dominant sales model - if its a scam it could be another pcp in the making. 

[giesahoose]

23 hours ago, LiveinHope said:

Having just bought my first new car in my life (in a long run of 2nd-hand diesels over 33 years of driving) the announcement doesn't surprise me at all.

Lol

[Brendan110_0]

20 hours ago, Tiger131 said:

Yet folks believe that the biggest problem is how they are going to manage to park outside their own house and run a cable over the pavement so they can charge. In a world where the only viable personal transportation is the electric car then I imagine cars will only be the preserve of the rich who will have their own driveways anyway. The plebs will have to use public. There is no way our electrical generating capacity could be be ramped up to charge 30 million vehicles overnight, the laws of supply and demand of a limited resource would apply to price electricity out of the average persons reach.

Tesla/another company install a battery in your house (stored electric), feeds off solar panels on roof. No need for the grid, gas or oil. That is the future for now until fusion is viable.

[Futuroid]

On 2/3/2017 at 11:48 PM, Tiger131 said:

Houses and cars are the most expensive items people buy.

I think education probably comes in front of cars these days.

Healthcare will be ahead of that pretty soon too.

Don't forget retirement as well (good to include it in your thoughts while it still exists).

[dougless]

I know this is going off topic a bit but Pensions and Housing always used to be the biggest ticket items.  By comparison, personal transport is cheap.

[dgul]

On 04/02/2017 at 10:20 AM, LiveinHope said:

Having just bought my first new car in my life (in a long run of 2nd-hand diesels over 33 years of driving) the announcement doesn't surprise me at all.

Just to make you feel a little better:

• I've just (6 months ago) bought a 12 year old diesel.  I never buy diesels (I just don't do the miles to justify them), but it was local and convenient and I couldn't be bothered to look any further.
• It was a short term purchase to tide me over by a financial year (complicated reasons).  Idea was to sell it for ~purchase price, and it only cost a £k, so fairly risk free.
• I'm in the market for a new fuel efficient small car to replace it*, from April 6 this year, but I'd be content to push this out by another 6 months.

So, you'd think I'd be an ideal candidate for the deal.  But, as far as I can work out, I could buy an entry level Fiat Panda for £7k (lots of others options available), so £6k after trade in. A Renault Zoe (cheapest electric car) is, say £16k (normally prices are quoted after the current incentive, but the £8.5k would replace that, not be in addition to it) -- so £7.5k after the deal -- but this the battery lease version, which would be about £70 a month for the miles it would do.  This would probably be similar to the petrol costs for the Panda.  The Zoe would save a little in road tax, I suppose.  OTOH, Pandas seem to have far better residual values than Zoes.

So, I could get the electric, but a cheap petrol would work out as about the same running costs and would give the option to go on longer journeys.  

I'd say the electric would only really be a no-brainer for those living in London (congestion charge).  Which I don't.

Now, I might well go for it if it is as good as currently indicated, but it isn't some fantastic deal which saves me £££s.  It would only bring the deal to broadly the same price as an equivalent petrol... which is, I suppose, the point.

Or, I might just buy a low miles Panda, which would be a couple of K off again.  The scrappage deal would only be for new cars, which takes away the option of taking advantage of the dreadful residuals of electrics -- the residuals are so bad that I'd probably be better off just getting a second hand Zoe and selling the diesel privately...

[*the additional complication is that I was going to put this through as a company car, for which the hybrids are currently a fantastic deal.  But the scrappage scheme would only be for normal privately owned cars, not company owned cars...  Whatever I do I can't 'win' with this deal.  Again, though, any scrappage scheme wouldn't be about winning, only bringing the prices of the electrics to the point where there is no additional pain in their purchase.]

Edited February 5, 2017 by dgul

[Little Frank]

24 minutes ago, dgul said:

Just to make you feel a little better:

• I've just (6 months ago) bought a 12 year old diesel.  I never buy diesels (I just don't do the miles to justify them), but it was local and convenient and I couldn't be bothered to look any further.
• It was a short term purchase to tide me over by a financial year (complicated reasons).  Idea was to sell it for ~purchase price, and it only cost a £k, so fairly risk free.
• I'm in the market for a new fuel efficient small car to replace it*, from April 6 this year, but I'd be content to push this out by another 6 months.

So, you'd think I'd be an ideal candidate for the deal.  But, as far as I can work out, I could buy an entry level Fiat Panda for £7k (lots of others options available), so £6k after trade in. A Renault Zoe (cheapest electric car) is, say £16k (normally prices are quoted after the current incentive, but the £8.5k would replace that, not be in addition to it) -- so £7.5k after the deal -- but this the battery lease version, which would be about £70 a month for the miles it would do.  This would probably be similar to the petrol costs for the Panda.  The Zoe would save a little in road tax, I suppose.  OTOH, Pandas seem to have far better residual values than Zoes.

So, I could get the electric, but a cheap petrol would work out as about the same running costs and would give the option to go on longer journeys.  

I'd say the electric would only really be a no-brainer for those living in London (congestion charge).  Which I don't.

Now, I might well go for it if it is as good as currently indicated, but it isn't some fantastic deal which saves me £££s.  It would only bring the deal to broadly the same price as an equivalent petrol... which is, I suppose, the point.

[*the additional complication is that I was going to put this through as a company car, for which the hybrids are currently a fantastic deal.  But the scrappage scheme would only be for normal privately owned cars, not company owned cars...  Whatever I do I can't 'win' with this deal.  Again, though, any scrappage scheme wouldn't be about winning, only bringing the prices of the electrics to the point where there is no additional pain in their purchase.]

You've chosen (possibly intentionally) to ignore fuel cost variability (likely upwards) risk. Of course this exists for both petrol/diesel & electric, but we have at least some historical experience of what happens when oil prices rise & fall. It's going to be almost impossible to separate out domestic electricity supply used for recharging these massive 30/40 kwh car batteries (my basic maths suggests that's like running a dozen kettles in parallel for 8 hours solid or whatever) so the 'risk' to comparative calculations appears to sit squarely with the variable cost of electricity & not so much with the cost of petrol (unless of course government massively alters the balance in favour of electricity, but that seems unlikely given the potential increase in demand). 

The longer the duration of ownership, the biggest this risk becomes. So, a PCP on a new electric car for, say, 4 years, has a lower risk than buying with the intention of keeping for say 10+years where you might just find that oil stabilises in the $50-80 range but the cost of electricity has rocketed due (largely) to increased demand not met by increased supply. At which point nobody want to buy your 2nd hand electric vehicle anyway. A similar thing happened in the 80s when everyone bought GTIs and then the cost of insurance rocketed. They became unsaleable. Not because the cars weren't good fun, but because young people couldn't afford to insure them anymore. 

It's a shame because the concept of 'the electric car' appeals to me. But as things stand I would only consider leasing or PCPing one for now. 

[dgul]

7 minutes ago, Little Frank said:

You've chosen (possibly intentionally) to ignore fuel cost variability (likely upwards) risk. Of course this exists for both petrol/diesel & electric, but we have at least some historical experience of what happens when oil prices rise & fall. It's going to be almost impossible to separate out domestic electricity supply used for recharging these massive 30/40 kwh car batteries (my basic maths suggests that's like running a dozen kettles in parallel for 8 hours solid or whatever) so the 'risk' to comparative calculations appears to sit squarely with the variable cost of electricity & not so much with the cost of petrol (unless of course government massively alters the balance in favour of electricity, but that seems unlikely given the potential increase in demand). 

The longer the duration of ownership, the biggest this risk becomes. So, a PCP on a new electric car for, say, 4 years, has a lower risk than buying with the intention of keeping for say 10+years where you might just find that oil stabilises in the $50-80 range but the cost of electricity has rocketed due (largely) to increased demand not met by increased supply. At which point nobody want to buy your 2nd hand electric vehicle anyway. A similar thing happened in the 80s when everyone bought GTIs and then the cost of insurance rocketed. They became unsaleable. Not because the cars weren't good fun, but because young people couldn't afford to insure them anymore. 

It's a shame because the concept of 'the electric car' appeals to me. But as things stand I would only consider leasing or PCPing one for now. 

Yes.  I'd be happiest with a £2k (well, or more) incentive to scrap the diesel for an up to date petrol, as at least then I'd be a bit more environmentally friendly and I'd be a £k up on the deal (again, only bringing the deal down to the level of a 12 month old second-hand car), but I really think that the scrappage scheme would be only for fully electric or hybrids, where there is no financial gain to be made.  And, anyway, since when did my happiness mean anything to them...

And insurance is a big deal -- the electrics seem to be middle-ground insurance groups (14 for a Zoe), whereas I could buy a cheap petrol and get the insurance down to group 3-4.

I'll probably just ask my wife for her preference, and then we can simplify the decision by just buying based on the range of colours available.

[Greater Fool]

2 hours ago, Brendan110_0 said:

Tesla/another company install a battery in your house (stored electric), feeds off solar panels on roof. No need for the grid, gas or oil. That is the future for now until fusion is viable.

The laws of physics and thermodynamics still come into play, where are the calculations to prove that solar panels on your roof could provide sufficient electrical joules to power the house and charge the car, I've never seem any? Do you have any idea the amount of energy it takes to move a family car with 3 or 4 people over practical distances?

[Greater Fool]

1 hour ago, dougless said:

I know this is going off topic a bit but Pensions and Housing always used to be the biggest ticket items.  By comparison, personal transport is cheap.

Running a clapped out Ford ka is certainly cheap, running a hi-tech electric car won't be.

[dgul]

32 minutes ago, Tiger131 said:

Running a clapped out Ford ka is certainly cheap, running a hi-tech electric car won't be.

Well, a super clapped out car will be costly unless you're handy with a spanner, but...

... a normal car can be fixed by a guy down the road.  He's cheery, cheap and I can walk back if I leave the car with him for the day.

With an electric car I'm committed to the dealer network, which is considerably more hasslefull.

[winkie]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

I think education probably comes in front of cars these days.

Healthcare will be ahead of that pretty soon too.

Don't forget retirement as well (good to include it in your thoughts while it still exists).

Good education does not have to cost money (a certain certificate might), like health education it is all out there for anyone interested and is in the main common sense and free..... transport, energy and a place to stay has a cost.

Edited February 5, 2017 by winkie

[Futuroid]

6 minutes ago, winkie said:

Good education does not have to cost money (a certain certificate might), like health education it is all out there for anyone interested and is in the main common sense and free..... transport, energy and a place to stay has a cost.

Do you seek out self taught surgeons and airline pilots? 

Education requires time from a tutor. Yes you can learn a lot from the internet, or a book but you need someone to show you how to use them and then (and this bit seems to be missing lately) how to think critically and appraise the information you come across.

[billybong]

14 hours ago, crazypabs said:

they'd probably pump it back in to the earth

or in reservoirs to supply their underground bunkers - when things get rough.

[winkie]

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

Do you seek out self taught surgeons and airline pilots? 

Education requires time from a tutor. Yes you can learn a lot from the internet, or a book but you need someone to show you how to use them and then (and this bit seems to be missing lately) how to think critically and appraise the information you come across.

You might not ever need a surgeon if live a healthy self educated life, to travel is a choice not a reason for being, nobody needs to travel but we all require a healthy place to live.

 

Edited February 5, 2017 by winkie

[Futuroid]

15 minutes ago, winkie said:

You might not ever need a surgeon if live a healthy self educated life, to travel is a choice not a reason for being, nobody needs to travel but we all require a healthy place to live.

Do you really believe that?

Is it beyond you to admit you are wrong  

[council dweller]

So....I`ve got a 24 year old diesel van which was going to the scrappy in the middle of next month.

1 to 500 quid should keep it on the road for another year !

My guess is that I could get a £5,200 present on a Suzuki swift. (assuming co emissions of less than 100)

What do you lot think ?

[winkie]

8 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Do you really believe that?

Is it beyond you to admit you are wrong  

...save getting run over by a bus....or any other accident of birth or no fault of own risk of living.

[dgul]

4 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Do you really believe that?

Is it beyond you to admit you are wrong  

Yes.  That statement is pretty much nonsense.  I'd agree that a healthy lifestyle can keep you away from the 'health service' -- what proportion of the NHS is diabetes these days? -- but a very high proportion of surgery is due to emergency or disease.

Going back to education (oh, sorry, forgot that that has nothing to do with the OP) -- the main problem we've got in the UK re. higher education is that the vast majority of people with a higher education don't use what they've learnt in their first job after graduation, let alone 20 years after.  This has given us the idea that higher education is everywhere a useless phenomenon, whereas it is essential to many many fields.  Oh, people do go on about how a degree in history and philosophy gives you the ability for rational thinking, and that it is particularly useful in middle management where...  Sorry, I've lost the will to continue.  It is all guff.  We need engineers, surgeons, scientists, historians, artists, musicians -- the list goes on -- but don't think that it is useful to society to create these talents only for them to be spent on becoming quants or whatever.

I'd be a fan of a system whereby the government 'invests' in an individual's education, but then demands repayment if you don't use it in something at least vaguely related.  Okay, it would be a nightmare to administer, but all this higher education that goes on is not adding any value to our society.

[winkie]

If you don't use it you lose most of it over time......therefore any good education will mean you can add to it, expand on it and most importantly make use of it......else a waste of both time, sometimes money and always effort.

Edited February 5, 2017 by winkie