UK house prices have begun their 50% decline-Paul Hodges calls it

[GreenDevil]

No rush to finish them. In the spring they will be valued 20% more than they are now( though they will be worth the same).

[AvoidDebt]

London looking particularly vulnerable in the Nationwide: First Time Buyer House Price Earnings Ratios

These are some of the previous troughs/peaks.

[bomberbrown]

London is gonna be very interesting over the next few years........

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by bomberbrown

[Cosmic Apple]

38 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

London looking particularly vulnerable in the Nationwide: First Time Buyer House Price Earnings Ratios

These are some of the previous troughs/peaks.

Is there a similar table for FTB ages and whether they are joint or single income mortgages?

[AvoidDebt]

2 minutes ago, Northern Welsh Midlander said:

Is there a similar table for FTB ages and whether they are joint or single income mortgages?

It came from the link in the original Paul Hodges article :  http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/download-data#tab:Downloaddata

[24gray24]

Suppose the number one government priority was preventing a house price reduction.  Would that give us the results we see?  And what would have to be sacrificed to sustain it? It may be worth considering as the crash is many years overdue.

[Arpeggio]

11 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Suppose the number one government priority was preventing a house price reduction.  Would that give us the results we see?  And what would have to be sacrificed to sustain it? It may be worth considering as the crash is many years overdue.

Abolishing democracy?

[24gray24]

The whole political system has been geared for decades to the interests of the demographic bulge. They're all now sitting in paid off houses worth a million each. Aged 60 -75. Their grandchildren are living in their parents bedroom aged 27 and earning 18k. So clearly a correction is inevitable; how else are the grandchildren going to end up in the houses? But the golden generation would like to sell up first before it all collapses. And keeping them happy is what politics is all about. So another 5 years of insane prices is the politicians main priority. If things change before it will be despite political efforts to prevent it. Some external shock. Left to our own devices, politicians will do all they can to keep house prices up for another 5 years. IMO.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

53 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

politicians will do all they can to keep house prices up for another 5 years. IMO.

Yes, they will, but thankfully Politicians are strictly limited in what they can do.  They are self serving scum, but cannot control anything other than their own "popularity".

[TheCountOfNowhere]

12 hours ago, AvoidDebt said:

London looking particularly vulnerable in the Nationwide: First Time Buyer House Price Earnings Ratios

These are some of the previous troughs/peaks.

Great chart....collapse imminent...buckle up...the 2nd phase of the mega depression bubble collapse has arrived.

[jiltedjen]

3 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

The whole political system has been geared for decades to the interests of the demographic bulge. They're all now sitting in paid off houses worth a million each. Aged 60 -75. Their grandchildren are living in their parents bedroom aged 27 and earning 18k. So clearly a correction is inevitable; how else are the grandchildren going to end up in the houses? But the golden generation would like to sell up first before it all collapses. And keeping them happy is what politics is all about. So another 5 years of insane prices is the politicians main priority. If things change before it will be despite political efforts to prevent it. Some external shock. Left to our own devices, politicians will do all they can to keep house prices up for another 5 years. IMO.

They know they have to bring prices right down for end of 2018, then ramp them through 2019 for 2020 elections. The oldies will still decide the election. 
However prices are soo eye bleedingly high at the moment, that they have to knock 20-30% off in only 2 years, with a bull trap to win the election.

They have brought in HTB policies to give FTB some firing power, and at the same time basically killed multi owning leveraged BTL morons. 

Those 60 - 70 have an interest in their children, or grandchildren owning (my mums 65, im 28 and at home). So the pressure is on, to make more owners, and bring prices down but not that far, only about 20-30% which historically is not that far down.

But as someone typical around the right age for your example, i could easily buy a good house at 20-30% less, obviously i dont live in the SE.

So the government do have an interest in bringing prices down, but only really the 2014-2015 boom. 2013 prices will be their aim.

[AvoidDebt]

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

...collapse imminent...

Still not seeing much downward movement on prices. New stuff is coming on at higher prices than old stuff. However Nationwide (NW) figures go back decades. I don't see any data suggesting that prices rise (astronomically) and then they just put their feet up and take a breather before they begin their ascent upwards again as VIs are suggesting. In fact the NW data suggests the opposite. 

10x for London is unprecedented. 

[Sancho Panza]

On 18/12/2016 at 10:28 AM, AvoidDebt said:

London looking particularly vulnerable in the Nationwide: First Time Buyer House Price Earnings Ratios

These are some of the previous troughs/peaks.

Taking somewhere like Leicester

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc126/

Average Salary 52x£475 pw = £24,700

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc126/

Average House LE2 = £202,196

Putting ave house/salary multiple at 8.186

If housing bottoms at 2.1 then we could see average house below £50,000,beause if housing drops significantly,we'll see average salaries plummet.

[Sancho Panza]

15 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

They know they have to bring prices right down for end of 2018, then ramp them through 2019 for 2020 elections. The oldies will still decide the election. 
However prices are soo eye bleedingly high at the moment, that they have to knock 20-30% off in only 2 years, with a bull trap to win the election.

They have brought in HTB policies to give FTB some firing power, and at the same time basically killed multi owning leveraged BTL morons. 

Those 60 - 70 have an interest in their children, or grandchildren owning (my mums 65, im 28 and at home). So the pressure is on, to make more owners, and bring prices down but not that far, only about 20-30% which historically is not that far down.

But as someone typical around the right age for your example, i could easily buy a good house at 20-30% less, obviously i dont live in the SE.

So the government do have an interest in bringing prices down, but only really the 2014-2015 boom. 2013 prices will be their aim.

Your absolutely right about the generational thing.Some of the oldies are getting it.

However,once prices start dropping,downward momentum will gather and the govt won't be able to stop it because quite simply,the banks balance sheets will start eating themselves.

As I've said before,the govt and BoE have taken a housing bubble and turned it into a sterling crisis.Ain't gonna be pretty

[Sancho Panza]

4 hours ago, AvoidDebt said:

Still not seeing much downward movement on prices. New stuff is coming on at higher prices than old stuff. However Nationwide (NW) figures go back decades. I don't see any data suggesting that prices rise (astronomically) and then they just put their feet up and take a breather before they begin their ascent upwards again as VIs are suggesting. In fact the NW data suggests the opposite. 

10x for London is unprecedented. 

In Leicester stock is definitely down.Something major is going on but not reflected in the price action as yet

LE2 down from 936 April 2015 to 639 now

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=le2

LE3 is down from 974 in April 2015 to 439.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=le3&sellersPriceGuide=Update+Results

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Your absolutely right about the generational thing.Some of the oldies are getting it.

However,once prices start dropping,downward momentum will gather and the govt won't be able to stop it because quite simply,the banks balance sheets will start eating themselves.

As I've said before,the govt and BoE have taken a housing bubble and turned it into a sterling crisis.Ain't gonna be pretty

The bit I don't get is...surely they must know that.

 

In this case this is a deliberate act and as such should be considered treason.

Let the punishment fit the frime .

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, Sancho Panza said:

In Leicester stock is definitely down.Something major is going on but not reflected in the price action as yet

LE2 down from 936 April 2015 to 639 now

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=le2

LE3 is down from 974 in April 2015 to 439.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=le3&sellersPriceGuide=Update+Results

No one able to afford to move?

 

The prices/tax are eyewatering relative to any normal real world measure.

 

 

[Sancho Panza]

19 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

The whole political system has been geared for decades to the interests of the demographic bulge. They're all now sitting in paid off houses worth a million each. Aged 60 -75. Their grandchildren are living in their parents bedroom aged 27 and earning 18k. So clearly a correction is inevitable; how else are the grandchildren going to end up in the houses? But the golden generation would like to sell up first before it all collapses. And keeping them happy is what politics is all about. So another 5 years of insane prices is the politicians main priority. If things change before it will be despite political efforts to prevent it. Some external shock. Left to our own devices, politicians will do all they can to keep house prices up for another 5 years. IMO.

Great post if I may say.Loads of the oldies want to offload and don't want to entertain 'sill offers'.

However,think you're wrong on the next 5 years.Completely.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

In Leicester stock is definitely down.Something major is going on but not reflected in the price action as yet

LE2 down from 936 April 2015 to 639 now

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=le2

LE3 is down from 974 in April 2015 to 439.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=le3&sellersPriceGuide=Update+Results

Or buy to letters /  investors have must bought everything they've ween. This was happening in northants 12 months ago. Wouldn't put it past being a givernment /business initiative... Also known as enslavement of the masses.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 hours ago, AvoidDebt said:

Still not seeing much downward movement on prices. New stuff is coming on at higher prices than old stuff. However Nationwide (NW) figures go back decades. I don't see any data suggesting that prices rise (astronomically) and then they just put their feet up and take a breather before they begin their ascent upwards again as VIs are suggesting. In fact the NW data suggests the opposite. 

10x for London is unprecedented. 

As I said.....

 

Surprised London is only 10x did everyone in spivdon get a pay rise.

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Taking somewhere like Leicester

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc126/

Average Salary 52x£475 pw = £24,700

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc126/

Average House LE2 = £202,196

Putting ave house/salary multiple at 8.186

If housing bottoms at 2.1 then we could see average house below £50,000,beause if housing drops significantly,we'll see average salaries plummet.

Isn't that single income not household income? The multipliers have increased due to the willingness of couples to use both incomes. In 1988 there weren't any 4.5 or more x household income mortgages.

Are the Nationwide stats based on their own mortgages? If so, it's from people who can afford to buy. The income multipliers as a whole would probably be even higher, if taking into account those on lower wages who cannot afford to buy. So they don't figure in the stats.

 

[nome]

I've been commenting on a major decline in stock levels in my area (sk13) for over a year now, half the number of 2 beds available now compared to 18 months ago, looks like other areas are now starting to see the same.

 

Home owners are either house hoarding via let to buy, or refusing to move if they can't get what they feel their house is worth.

[mathschoc]

7 minutes ago, nome said:

I've been commenting on a major decline in stock levels in my area (sk13) for over a year now, half the number of 2 beds available now compared to 18 months ago, looks like other areas are now starting to see the same.

 

Home owners are either house hoarding via let to buy, or refusing to move if they can't get what they feel their house is worth.

In 2015 a 3 bed house on my road sold in 3 days, yes 3 friggin days, now in 2016 a 3 bed house right next door has been on the market since July. 

I would say the price is silly, it has been dropped to the price of the one which should of in 2015, still not moving.

so houses are not selling and people know it.

Interest rates need to go up so BTL are squeezed and idiots with large mortgages default. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

36 minutes ago, mathschoc said:

In 2015 a 3 bed house on my road sold in 3 days, yes 3 friggin days, now in 2016 a 3 bed house right next door has been on the market since July. 

I would say the price is silly, it has been dropped to the price of the one which should of in 2015, still not moving.

so houses are not selling and people know it.

Interest rates need to go up so BTL are squeezed and idiots with large mortgages default. 

and........

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere

[jfk]

Just had a mooch on rightmove for locality, everything just sitting there, houses that would have been "snapped up by a canny investor" in a few weeks have been sat there since July (agreed, stupid time to try to tempt someone to make a cheeky offer).

Some overpriced houses had the odd 5k and 10k knocked off (so a reduction of <10%). 

Prices are still ludicrously high though, still +25% 2006 levels.