london_thirtythree Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said: There's been a welcome slow down in my area but sellers are still reluctant to drop prices and are still as much as 3% overvalued. With low interest rates people have no need to sell and nowhere else to put their money. Hopefully the fall in the pound will help re-balance the economy but it just makes UK housing even more attractive for foreign investors and I can't see the government allowing prices to fall anyway. I hope prices fall, I really do, but just can't see it happening. The New Builds will drop first, as these are currently unoccupied and so are naturally Forced Sellers. (this seems to have started already I think) We also have some BTL'ers who are forced sellers as their assets will be losing them money following the changes to the rental market. And then here will always then be other forced sellers for lifestyle reasons. Foreign Investors have just lost 15+% on their investment, and most forecasts are predicting they are on course to lose another 3 to 5% before the end of the year. If you are looking for a HPC, then I would hold faith, even without Interest Rate raises I think the combination of S24 + Inflation + Brexit could be a perfect storm for a significant correction. Whilst this is taking place, there will be endless debate on whether the BoE should raise Interest Rates, and so the fear of this will hang over the market even if it doesn't actually happen - and if it does happen, the market will probably move from correction to crash. I could be wrong - but all looks very shaky to me. Our real economy has been quite static since 2012, and so has allowed house prices to raise and raise off the back of low interest rates but this static economy is no longer the case following Brexit and the Pound - we are now in uncertain territory where the established norms could change relatively quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, london_thirtythree said: The New Builds will drop first, as these are currently unoccupied and so are naturally Forced Sellers. (this seems to have started already I think) We also have some BTL'ers who are forced sellers as their assets will be losing them money following the changes to the rental market. And then here will always then be other forced sellers for lifestyle reasons. Foreign Investors have just lost 15+% on their investment, and most forecasts are predicting they are on course to lose another 3 to 5% before the end of the year. If you are looking for a HPC, then I would hold faith, even without Interest Rate raises I think the combination of S24 + Inflation + Brexit could be a perfect storm for a significant correction. Whilst this is taking place, there will be endless debate on whether the BoE should raise Interest Rates, and so the fear of this will hang over the market even if it doesn't actually happen - and if it does happen, the market will probably move from correction to crash. I could be wrong - but all looks very shaky to me. Our real economy has been quite static since 2012, and so has allowed house prices to raise and raise off the back of low interest rates but this static economy is no longer the case following Brexit and the Pound - we are now in uncertain territory where the established norms could change relatively quickly. How long will it take though? Fed up of waiting. 20 years now. I've put in an offer of 2% below asking price on a couple of places hoping to snap up a bargain but the EAs just set their dogs on me. Had enough of renting. Had to move 6 times in the last 3 weeks. Just want to get on with my life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
london_thirtythree Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said: How long will it take though? Fed up of waiting. 20 years now. I've put in an offer of 2% below asking price on a couple of places hoping to snap up a bargain but the EAs just set their dogs on me. Had enough of renting. Had to move 6 times in the last 3 weeks. Just want to get on with my life. I'm pretty much in the same place - my thinking is either: - March/April 2017 - July/August 2017 From what I've heard from others, the right time to buy for you is the right time to buy, as long as you can afford it and it is a house to live in. But my thinking is that we are in the last stage of the bubble, and so waiting it out is the right way to go. Even if the bubble does not burst, all the official predictions are for prices to drop a few % even without a correction/crash, so nothing is going up any time soon. (I think buying in 2017 will be catching a falling knife to an extent as prices will continue to go down, but you'll never be able spot the exact bottom, and who cares if it is a place to live in - but I'm damned if I am buying at the current crazy bubble prices!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habeas Domus Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 14 minutes ago, london_thirtythree said: Foreign Investors have just lost 15+% on their investment, and most forecasts are predicting they are on course to lose another 3 to 5% before the end of the year. I think this is absolutely key, 15% down in 4 months, could easily keep getting worse. Carney could have raised rates by maybe 1% or 2% but that would make zero difference against such a large currency drift, so instead he did a confidence bluff by cutting rates instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, london_thirtythree said: I'm pretty much in the same place - my thinking is either: - March/April 2017 - July/August 2017 From what I've heard from others, the right time to buy for you is the right time to buy, as long as you can afford it and it is a house to live in. But my thinking is that we are in the last stage of the bubble, and so waiting it out is the right way to go. Even if the bubble does not burst, all the official predictions are for prices to drop a few % even without a correction/crash, so nothing is going up any time soon. (I think buying in 2017 will be catching a falling knife to an extent as prices will continue to go down, but you'll never be able spot the exact bottom, and who cares if it is a place to live in - but I'm damned if I am buying at the current crazy bubble prices!) Even if it does burst it will be masked by the coming inflation. Just cannot see a drop in nominal prices. Might as well buy now with a good long term fixed rate mortgage (currently only 2.49% for 10 years). At least you'll have something tangible for your money should the SHTF. P.S. My boilier's just gone. Last time it took the landlord 2 years to fix it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
london_thirtythree Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 16 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said: Even if it does burst it will be masked by the coming inflation. Just cannot see a drop in nominal prices. Might as well buy now with a good long term fixed rate mortgage (currently only 2.49% for 10 years). At least you'll have something tangible for your money should the SHTF. P.S. My boilier's just gone. Last time it took the landlord 2 years to fix it. I respect the opinion and you might be right - but I think change is coming. On the bright side, with the boiler and your rent, your landlord holds the risk with inflation. If the landlord does nothing, threaten to remove it from the rent, should get him/her moving and is perfectly in your rights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, Oliver Sutton said: Even if it does burst it will be masked by the coming inflation. Just cannot see a drop in nominal prices. Might as well buy now with a good long term fixed rate mortgage (currently only 2.49% for 10 years). At least you'll have something tangible for your money should the SHTF. P.S. My boilier's just gone. Last time it took the landlord 2 years to fix it. Just so long as if it is HPC, we don't have another meltdown of innocence for those who do buy with such a view. Already had one post today falling over a buyer as a victim in shared-ownership, who had no other options. *Unsuspecting house buyers who couldn't afford the other options.* Closer examination of "the victim's" post shows him having paid £18K of rent-element in the past 30 months (which could have easy gone on standard rent and awaiting HPC, just like my own £18K+ in rent) and only wants to sell because he wants to buy another house in this market. And that's what it is. A market. Edited October 18, 2016 by Venger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 (edited) Sit tight, this could be the start of the crash. A stagnant market with no buyers at fantasy prices. With the expect glut of forced sellers as posted on the 30% of landlords expected to throw in the towel thread, there could be some real selling soon. And as has been mentioned before property aint like shares, if theres no buyers you take whats offered or you lose money every year; and put up with the headaches, the maintenance, the voids, etc etc .... Edited October 18, 2016 by GreenDevil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 The voids!! The voids!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Freebies and sweeteners galore as luxury London houses not selling Housebuilder throw in everything, even the kitchen sink to give buyers more for their money in the hope of winning new customers in the subdued post-referendum market . London’s luxury house developers are showering homebuyers with drastically more extravagant gifts in the wake of the Brexit vote. To boost sales and to coincide with the start of the Frieze Art Fair, it unveiled interiors dripping with works by artists including Andy Warhol, Salvador Dali and Marc Chagall. If a purchaser bought an apartment from us and liked a particular piece of art which is bespoke to the apartment, then — depending on price — the piece would either be gifted as a moving-in present or, if the art work was one of the rarer and more valuable pieces, we would liaise with the art gallery to help arrange a preferential price for our purchaser. But methods to boost sales are not limited to art one of his Saudi Arabian clients was told that £200,000 of furniture from a showroom apartment would be thrown in if he bought one of the £2.5 million-plus flats in a new zone one scheme on the river. “This is because the development has a large supply of high-value unsold flats and is nearing practical completion,” he explains. The sky has not fallen in since the Brexit vote but sales have certainly slowed down in a market which is oversupplied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
80sBaby Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 11 hours ago, rollover said: Freebies and sweeteners galore as luxury London houses not selling Housebuilder throw in everything, even the kitchen sink to give buyers more for their money in the hope of winning new customers in the subdued post-referendum market . London’s luxury house developers are showering homebuyers with drastically more extravagant gifts in the wake of the Brexit vote. To boost sales and to coincide with the start of the Frieze Art Fair, it unveiled interiors dripping with works by artists including Andy Warhol, Salvador Dali and Marc Chagall. If a purchaser bought an apartment from us and liked a particular piece of art which is bespoke to the apartment, then — depending on price — the piece would either be gifted as a moving-in present or, if the art work was one of the rarer and more valuable pieces, we would liaise with the art gallery to help arrange a preferential price for our purchaser. But methods to boost sales are not limited to art one of his Saudi Arabian clients was told that £200,000 of furniture from a showroom apartment would be thrown in if he bought one of the £2.5 million-plus flats in a new zone one scheme on the river. “This is because the development has a large supply of high-value unsold flats and is nearing practical completion,” he explains. The sky has not fallen in since the Brexit vote but sales have certainly slowed down in a market which is oversupplied. What are you talking about? According to the papers, House prices are up 12% in London!?!? Based on ONS data too! So I checked: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2016/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2016 Indeed, August data(released in Oct) was really strong, but their data set ends in June. So, it is lagging. Nov, Dec and Jan should make for interesting reading! FYI, I am heavily invested in Bonds. I sold out of stocks as a feared a bubble, I am now selling and going cash! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Beware of Greeks bearing gifts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 (edited) Quote “This is because the development has a large supply of high-value unsold flats " Read as: “This is because the development has a large supply of massively over priced unsold flats, worth approx 20% of the asking price. Edited October 20, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eek Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 (edited) On 10/18/2016 at 5:21 PM, Venger said: Just so long as if it is HPC, we don't have another meltdown of innocence for those who do buy with such a view. Already had one post today falling over a buyer as a victim in shared-ownership, who had no other options. *Unsuspecting house buyers who couldn't afford the other options.* Closer examination of "the victim's" post shows him having paid £18K of rent-element in the past 30 months (which could have easy gone on standard rent and awaiting HPC, just like my own £18K+ in rent) and only wants to sell because he wants to buy another house in this market. And that's what it is. A market. Venger you really don't understand the pressure people can be placed under by family do you? Nor do you know enough about how the scheme was sold and advertised to understand how it worked and was sold yet were very happy to pretend that you did to get your half baked point scoring across. I'm glad the story made you feel better while the poster is being screwed by Gentoo playing very fast and lose with its own t&cs. And that was why I'm annoyed - not that the person bought and is trapped but that the person is trapped due to Gentoo playing games and not even following the t&cs of the contract they wrote. Edited October 20, 2016 by eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 On 10/18/2016 at 3:19 PM, Oliver Sutton said: Even if it does burst it will be masked by the coming inflation. Just cannot see a drop in nominal prices. Might as well buy now with a good long term fixed rate mortgage (currently only 2.49% for 10 years). At least you'll have something tangible for your money should the SHTF. P.S. My boilier's just gone. Last time it took the landlord 2 years to fix it. Is everybody else having a complete sense of humour failure, or have I just lost the plot so badly that I'm laughing like a loon at things that are actually meant seriously? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, Fully Detached said: Is everybody else having a complete sense of humour failure, or have I just lost the plot so badly that I'm laughing like a loon at things that are actually meant seriously? You are not alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 My last 3 posts were obviously me pretending to be a troll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 32 minutes ago, eek said: Venger you really don't understand the pressure people can be placed under by family do you? Oh dear..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eek Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, Fully Detached said: Is everybody else having a complete sense of humour failure, or have I just lost the plot so badly that I'm laughing like a loon at things that are actually meant seriously? There is an argument (granted its an utterly insane one) that if inflation took off buying now would be a sensible approach as inflation will destroy the nominal debt levels assuming wages rose. 1 minute ago, Oliver Sutton said: My last 3 posts were obviously me pretending to be a troll. I just thought it was proof that the market was about to turn as a long standing member took one for the team and bought in despair to ensure the market did immediately crash.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said: My last 3 posts were obviously me pretending to be a troll. Fooled me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 59 minutes ago, 80sBaby said: What are you talking about? According to the papers, House prices are up 12% in London!?!? Based on ONS data too! So I checked: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2016/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2016 Indeed, August data(released in Oct) was really strong, but their data set ends in June. So, it is lagging. Nov, Dec and Jan should make for interesting reading! FYI, I am heavily invested in Bonds. I sold out of stocks as a feared a bubble, I am now selling and going cash! London’s luxury houses. "It’s called disguised discounting. The market does not want to be seen reducing prices, so they are throwing in sweeteners to get deals over the line. It will squeeze margins but big profits will still be made regardless. " Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 17 minutes ago, Fully Detached said: Is everybody else having a complete sense of humour failure, or have I just lost the plot so badly that I'm laughing like a loon at things that are actually meant seriously? I think the events post BrExit have really brought things to a head. The bankers WILL Not stop. They will collapse the system, they own all the assets so it wont matter to them if peoples money becomes worthless. They have the stuff we need. I've suspected for a while that a lot of the BTL buying i've seen round Northants has been from a small group of indivisuals or a company which has direct access to BoE funds at incredibly low IRs. Total guess BTW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eek Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I've suspected for a while that a lot of the BTL buying i've seen round Northants has been from a small group of indivisuals or a company which has direct access to BoE funds at incredibly low IRs. Total guess BTW. I'm just assuming its people with money not knowing where to put it and buying property as its something they can look at and think they understand. On the former point I'm in the same boat. An awful lot of cash and no idea where to put it - I just know property isn't an option and nor really is anything else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eek Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 17 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Oh dear..... Sometimes its worth just trolling someone for fun... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I think the events post BrExit have really brought things to a head. The bankers WILL Not stop. They will collapse the system, they own all the assets so it wont matter to them if peoples money becomes worthless. They have the stuff we need. I've suspected for a while that a lot of the BTL buying i've seen round Northants has been from a small group of indivisuals or a company which has direct access to BoE funds at incredibly low IRs. Total guess BTW. I was just pointing out that Oliver Sutton was having a bit of fun with his posts, or at least I assumed he was. Good to see he's confirmed it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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