By 2030, Automation Will Have Made White Collar Workers Redundant On A Scale Comparable To What Blue Collar Workers Faced In The 20Th Century

[EssKay]

It will leave a lot of humans with a lot of free time lets hope they arent hungry and angry.

I think that's wishful thinking.

At no point in human history have the gains from major technological advances been freely shared by the elites. They have always had to be extracted - either through outright revolt against the status quo or slightly less forcefully in the aftermath of a major war / other significant event that led to a shortage of labour (see the aftermath of the black death, spanish flu, post ww2 boom etc)

The elites have then always sought to re-establish their advantage (e.g. through globalisation in the past 30-40 years)

Why should this time be any different?

Infact, i think it could be significantly worse - we seem to be at a tipping point where human labour will become increasingly irrelevant.

[canbuywontbuy]

Not entirely sure if "sadly" is the right word. Although the benefits of some disaster wiping out half the human race would be huge (as long as it isn't something like nuclear war leaving most of the planet uninhabitable) even I can't put it in the "end justifies the means" category. Even though the benefits come later a gradual decline is far, far better. There's some signs of it starting (quite a few western countries being blessed with declining populations, not that the idiots in charge appreciate that) although it's still being overtaken by the backwards for now.

I think sadly is....sadly, the right word. The human race is its own worst enemy. Goodness knows how we got so greedy and wanted so much. Maybe it's the economic models that made everyone such a ridiculous consumer. We get more than we can even give ($210Tn of world debt). Sigh.

[Sandwiches33]

I think that's wishful thinking.

At no point in human history have the gains from major technological advances been freely shared by the elites. They have always had to be extracted - either through outright revolt against the status quo or slightly less forcefully in the aftermath of a major war / other significant event that led to a shortage of labour (see the aftermath of the black death, spanish flu, post ww2 boom etc)

The elites have then always sought to re-establish their advantage (e.g. through globalisation in the past 30-40 years)

Why should this time be any different?

Infact, i think it could be significantly worse - we seem to be at a tipping point where human labour will become increasingly irrelevant.

Yeah true, if you are to believe the conspiracy the plan is to get the automation to a certain level then wipe out the 99% "cattle". I would like to think we would end up like star trek but from our history massive war and genocide seems the likely option. Maybe a big war with muslims could thin us out a bit?

The wars would be brutal too, big robots smashing people to ******. look up that petman thats some terrifying shit.

[bristolhunter]

Isn't "populism" another word for democracy

You're thinking of majoritarianism, not democracy. Easiest way to understand the difference: populism/majoritarianism is two wolves and 1 lamb voting on what's for dinner. Democracy is the lamb being able to contest the outcome, and have its rights protected.

[nome]

Just on the topic of automation I heard a report about the Royal Mint earlier and it mentioned they employ 900 people... that seems like an incredibly high number of people to me for what always looks to be a highly automated process?

[EssKay]

Yeah true, if you are to believe the conspiracy the plan is to get the automation to a certain level then wipe out the 99% "cattle". I would like to think we would end up like star trek but from our history massive war and genocide seems the likely option. Maybe a big war with muslims could thin us out a bit?

The wars would be brutal too, big robots smashing people to ******. look up that petman thats some terrifying shit.

I don't think it's as exotic a well planned out conspiracy with a set goal to wipe out x% of humanity.

I'm sure there are some Malthusians out there who want to see a drastic reductions in population but i think for the majority of the elites it's greed, pure and simple. The people at the very top seem to want to accrue ever more wealth, power and influence to themselves and i don't think they particularly care what happens to the rest. If there's a mass die-off due to war/pestilence/famine - so be it - as long as they are still on top afterwards

As for the catalyst, i think escalating conflicts in the middle east could act as a trigger for a wider conflict between the "West" and Russia/China, but the muslims themselves wouldn't be much of a threat (they're too divided and too far behind technologically). The tensions over territory in the south china sea or on Russia's border with the NATO block are the ones to watch

Petman is disturbing in it's potential (and pretty creepy to watch in action) but war robots like that are at least 20-30 years away from being equivalent to even a basic infantry soldier

[EssKay]

Just on the topic of automation I heard a report about the Royal Mint earlier and it mentioned they employ 900 people... that seems like an incredibly high number of people to me for what always looks to be a highly automated process?

Like anything government related - jobs for the boys...

[Sandwiches33]

I don't think it's as exotic a well planned out conspiracy with a set goal to wipe out x% of humanity.

I'm sure there are some Malthusians out there who want to see a drastic reductions in population but i think for the majority of the elites it's greed, pure and simple. The people at the very top seem to want to accrue ever more wealth, power and influence to themselves and i don't think they particularly care what happens to the rest. If there's a mass die-off due to war/pestilence/famine - so be it - as long as they are still on top afterwards

As for the catalyst, i think escalating conflicts in the middle east could act as a trigger for a wider conflict between the "West" and Russia/China, but the muslims themselves wouldn't be much of a threat (they're too divided and too far behind technologically). The tensions over territory in the south china sea or on Russia's border with the NATO block are the ones to watch

Petman is disturbing in it's potential (and pretty creepy to watch in action) but war robots like that are at least 20-30 years away from being equivalent to even a basic infantry soldier

They could also use food as weapon too that would thin the herd.

The automation of the military is big on the pentagons agenda, It'll be aircraft first, submarines, armour then work down to infantry, the soldier is a pretty cheap asset but eventually he will be replaced.Then wars will be "easier" because you wont have to deal with as many bodies coming home.

[Errol]

you wont have to deal with as many bodies coming home.

Unlikely. Any war against a comparable nation will involve immediate strikes against US cities and the US mainland.

It's one of America's failings that it believes that any war fought with Russia (or someone similar) or involving NATO will somehow magically leave the US homeland untouched. Russia, in particular, has all but stated that a war with NATO would mean strikes against US soil directly - and at once, in order to demonstrate that America cannot exist unscathed or apart from modern conflict.

Edited July 26, 2016 by Errol

[GeordieAndy]

Good article and some decent comments on here. As a dad of 3 in my mid 30s, reluctant homeowner (bought 3 1/2 years ago) and working in IT mainly due to the money being ok I have seriously thought about uprooting us all and trying to live off grid, self sustaining etc in some way. This is mainly due to the fact I'm not sure I have the enthusiasm for keeping my IT skills up to date for the next 20 years but globalisation and automation like this means there is always a cheaper / more enthusiastic option for clients

Edited July 26, 2016 by GeordieAndy

[goldbug9999]

You're thinking of majoritarianism, not democracy. Easiest way to understand the difference: populism/majoritarianism is two wolves and 1 lamb voting on what's for dinner.

... or two BTLers / OO's and one renter voting on housing policy.

[Limpet]

You're thinking of majoritarianism, not democracy. Easiest way to understand the difference: populism/majoritarianism is two wolves and 1 lamb voting on what's for dinner. Democracy is the lamb being able to contest the outcome, and have its rights protected.

If you want to have that system you need a Republic with a Bill of Rights rather than a democracy

[nome]

Like anything government related - jobs for the boys...

Yeah I did wonder if that's the case, especially with it being South Wales, having spent the last couple of years living in Wales I've been amazed at some of the none jobs I've witnessed being carried out, especially within local govt.

It's like being back in the 1970's

[mubes]

I work in an industry which will almost certainly disappear quite suddenly sometime in the next 5-10 years. As soon as computers can do the job more accurately than humans for the same or less cost, then the industry will disappear in the space of a few months. At the moment it's about 80% computers, vs 95% humans. We can see the ticker rising. So it's something everyone is thinking about round here.

My optimistic shoulder, thinks that as economies develop, jobs shift to knowledge, services and creative industrys. EG more people will work in the VR computer game industry for instance. More jobs in digital marketing will appear, to sell those games to people. etc

And there will still probably be massive inequality and people walking one mile for clean water despite having tech to solve that issue.

Looking forward to self driving shared Teslas though!

[NuBrit]

Good article and some decent comments on here. As a dad of 3 in my mid 30s, reluctant homeowner (bought 3 1/2 years ago) and working in IT mainly due to the money being ok I have seriously thought about uprooting us all and trying to live off grid, self sustaining etc in some way. This is mainly due to the fact I'm not sure I have the enthusiasm for keeping my IT skills up to date for the next 20 years but globalisation and automation like this means there is always a cheaper / more enthusiastic option for clients

You'd be crazy to abandon a career in IT.

I started an IT degree back in 2001 just after the Dot-Com bubble imploded. I remember in our first day at college a lecturer telling us that IT was a terrible career choice and that we would all end up on the dole. According to him, apparently no one would ever want to invest in technology again as so much money had been lost in the collapse. Also, if any IT work did need doing then it was certainly all going to go to India. Basically, we were told unless you really enjoyed the academic challenge, you would be best transferring out.

I am not in IT directly anymore, but I am involved in hiring staff. There is a huge shortage there and I don't see it going abroad (offshoring only really works for menial tasks). If you ask me, in the future there will be more demand if anything for people with expertise in data, AI, automation, robots, etc.

If you are in your mid-thirties, there is no reason why you can't work your ass off for the next 15 years, get your mortgage down or paid off, save as much as you can into investments/pension. At that stage, you should have enough saved up to either retire, or maybe look at some part-time options.

[mubes]

I am not in IT directly anymore, but I am involved in hiring staff. There is a huge shortage there and I don't see it going abroad (offshoring only really works for menial tasks). If you ask me, in the future there will be more demand if anything for people with expertise in data, AI, automation, robots, etc.

I'd agree with this. There is a large moat for UK IT bods.

[canbuywontbuy]

My optimistic shoulder, thinks that as economies develop, jobs shift to knowledge, services and creative industrys. EG more people will work in the VR computer game industry for instance. More jobs in digital marketing will appear, to sell those games to people. etc

LOL - this market is already massively massively over-supplied as it is. It's like saying "there'll be more web developers in the future, because more and more business will be done online". No, there'll be a CULL of both digital marketers and web developers because they're already saturated industries and they're both becoming more and more streamlined (survival of the bigger players).

[spyguy]

You'd be crazy to abandon a career in IT.

I started an IT degree back in 2001 just after the Dot-Com bubble imploded. I remember in our first day at college a lecturer telling us that IT was a terrible career choice and that we would all end up on the dole. According to him, apparently no one would ever want to invest in technology again as so much money had been lost in the collapse. Also, if any IT work did need doing then it was certainly all going to go to India. Basically, we were told unless you really enjoyed the academic challenge, you would be best transferring out.

I am not in IT directly anymore, but I am involved in hiring staff. There is a huge shortage there and I don't see it going abroad (offshoring only really works for menial tasks). If you ask me, in the future there will be more demand if anything for people with expertise in data, AI, automation, robots, etc.

If you are in your mid-thirties, there is no reason why you can't work your ass off for the next 15 years, get your mortgage down or paid off, save as much as you can into investments/pension. At that stage, you should have enough saved up to either retire, or maybe look at some part-time options.

A lot of lecturers have sh1t for brains.

Even after the fallout from he dot bubble burst, you could still see that software was going to eat the world.

As far as Indians doing the work. Hmm, has that worked out for anyone, ever?

After a very difficult 3 years of overseeing an inherited Indian based development team, all I can say is Never again.

Team of 20 experienced developers.

Turned out they were doing other work - and these were directly employed by my company.

As far as experienced goes they were very experienced at getting a new job and then leaving it 6-12 months later.

Very little in the way of actual experience.

Apparently they were '1/3 the cost of a US developer'

In cash terms yes.

In productiveiy they were about 3 times more expensive.

They never delivered anything.

[spyguy]

LOL - this market is already massively massively over-supplied as it is. It's like saying "there'll be more web developers in the future, because more and more business will be done online". No, there'll be a CULL of both digital marketers and web developers because they're already saturated industries and they're both becoming more and more streamlined (survival of the bigger players).

Web designers, Yes. The wrongly employed graphic designers.

Web programmers. No.

[kibuc]

If you are in your mid-thirties, there is no reason why you can't work your ass off for the next 15 years

One reason could be that if you're 30-something, the next 15 years is when your kids grow up, so you have to leverage being there and being a part of that process against how much you'd like to 'work your ass off' to pay off that mortgage. I'm a 33yo software dev and sometimes it's nice to think about all that money I could get if I put my ass into it and moved into a lead role, but one thing that always puts me off - aside from diminishing returns thanks to high-rate taxation - is that it would come at the cost of something I'd never be able to get back.

Edited July 26, 2016 by kibuc

[mubes]

LOL - this market is already massively massively over-supplied as it is. It's like saying "there'll be more web developers in the future, because more and more business will be done online". No, there'll be a CULL of both digital marketers and web developers because they're already saturated industries and they're both becoming more and more streamlined (survival of the bigger players).

Over supplied? I don't know any numbers, but my anecdotal experience of living in SF and London, that decent tech talent is demand massively in demand. Not sure you can conflate saturated with busy.

[mubes]

Web designers, Yes. The wrongly employed graphic designers.

Web programmers. No.

Also there is more to tech than websites!

[spyguy]

Also there is more to tech than websites!

Ill rephrase that - there's a lot more to 'websites' than front end/HTML.

Ive sat through presentations where the 'tech' has banged on about the best edtor for HTML.

Fckit- just template the HTML stuff.

[wonderpup]

Automation is a perfect example of a double bind- the more we succeed in replacing waged labour with capital equipment the less demand there will be for the output that the automation creates- but at the same time the automation process can't be stopped because it represents a competitve advantage in the marketplace- so the existing system can neither assimilate large scale automation of work nor can it refrain from doing it- it's a checkmate scenario.

Even the Citizens wage solution has problem since it depends on taxing the projected profits from the automated industries, profits that will not exist since in aggregate those industries will have replaced wage earning consumers with technology.

[GeordieAndy]

I graduated just after the .com bust and would call myself a reluctant web developer more than anything else as I end up doing a fair bit of back end work. This usually means customising templates that clients have seen or already bought and then charging them consultancy rates for this work as well as SEO and other bits that will actually increase their sales / business productivity.

Actual proper programming bores me and I have never been a natural at it to be honest - the best programmers I know just instinctively get all languages & concepts and genuinely seem to enjoy it. In terms of working hard and paying off mortgage etc, I have been self employed for over 10 years already and doing ok but not started a pension yet but would say I have the work life balance ok in terms of being able to walk kids to school / nursery etc and not missing that part of life but still fancy doing something else.

Edited July 26, 2016 by GeordieAndy