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mubes

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About mubes

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  1. Confusing the time scope of the RICS report. You think it's crap at long term future prediction, and I never said otherwise. I just said it was good at predicting house price direction in 3 months time. As you would expect, having access to offer data. If you know where house prices will be in 3 months ,you can more or less predict whether the YoY frowth figure will be positive or negative in 12 months with pretty reasonable accuracy, as they have consistently done. If you think I'm a cretin, then I must repeat, you are confused about what I'm trying to say.
  2. I think the problem here is you are confusing the scope of the RICS report. It's not trying to make predictions about 'the fullness of time' it is making short term predictions about the short term direction of the market. If this timescale is not of interest to you, then fair enough. Doesn't make it any less of a very reliable short term indicator of market movements. If you want to use statistical terms to attack the validity of the data as a short term indicator, then at least give some basis to it. Of course if you are looking for long term predictions it can't be read in isolation, but that is not what the RICS report is doing. RICS is a good indciator of short term sentiment based changes and therefore can be a useful tool if you are following this. Like you obviously are. Let me tell you! And yes it definitely was an attack. And it's not gibberish.
  3. If statisical confidence it is such a simple idea, perhaps you could put some figures on the signal to noise ratio of that RICS YoY chart? Perhaps also comment on the correlatoin strength? And what kind of SMA would you advise to smooth out the blips?
  4. I disagree. The timescale of rics reports is defined, so it's possible to state objectively whether data is statistically meaningful or not. I'm not a statisician, but it's called confidence or something like that.
  5. Fiar point but a lot depends on the your moving average frequency and overall time scale doesn't it? The RICS graph one post above is 1 year YOY, which is enough for a 10 year graph. 1. I never told you what my window was. I never said 2%. But any positive growth at all renders this figure irrelevant, does it not? be it 50 5 or 0.5% drop, if prices are increasing at all, none of these targets are hit. 2. Don't really understand what you are saying. I'm trying to keep my comments zoomed in and focused on the time ranges discussed in the RICS report. That's the thread title. 1. it seems i do, as you keep broadening the attack outside scope of rics report. 2. thanks, but if i want to zoom in on rics in isolation, that's perfectly valid excercise IMO.
  6. Doesn't look noisy to me. Can you expand a bit on why you think the signal is noisy? It looks nicely correlated at a glance. You are perhaps in the 'less than modest confidence in RICS predictions' camp? I'm not getting excited, the opposite really. I'm just offering my interpretation of the data. That sentiment driven YoY drop in nominal house prices at any point in next 12 months is looking less likely than last month's report, if this report is read in isolation. A nominal drop could happen, but confidence in RICS reports would drop too. And that's my point really. They have been good so far. So confidence is generally high in them. If you have no confidence in the report, then it would be interesting for discussion to share reasons why.
  7. 1. Buying a house. 2. People who want to buy a house in next 12-18 months. Some. not all! Or even most. But some.
  8. Yes it's lazy to generalise, sorry. Lots of stuff going on here outside of housing policy for sure. But in the context of a thread about forward guidance based on surveyors reports, to zoom in a bit, it's possibly safer to generalise that most readers have at least a passing interest in market direction
  9. mubes

    Edinbugh Latest

    I'm seeing conflicting reports about edinburgh. IS it on an upward trend? I read reports about cheaper flats bringing down the average then another report saying it's growing double the national average???
  10. Agreed of course. But some were hoping that sentiment alone would cause negative growth in the interim. But this reports doesn't support that, which is disapointing to some, especially those who predict further stimulus/props, and were counting on sentiment in the short term for a window.
  11. Just to trolll.... so does it follow equally that their numbers can't see 'pent up demand' building behind the dam either? Lots of people are saving. Lots of people want to buy but are waiting it out. Whats to say that any BTL sell off won't be safely absorbed by some of this demand (people on here for eg) poking their heads out. Hard to see much downward pressure on prices when there is clearly so much demand lying patiently.
  12. Troll or not, point stands. Yes they overshoot, but RICS are very rarely wrong about whether growth will be positive or negative in near future. Which is ultimately what this board is all about. Up or down.
  13. Apologies. My mistake. Of course there must be people who distrust it. I stand corrected on that. Though your graph seems to suggest it is better than modest. In simple terms of binary market direction on 3 month basis, it looks pretty good to me on average. Especially if you take a SMA
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