thehowler Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, crouch said: I would guess that any second vote will be like the first; much closer than the Remoaners like to think,. That's another reason why there won't be a 2nd ref. Too much at stake. MPs will never offer the public the WTO nuclear option. May's deal is can-kicking safety...are MPs really going to blow it out of the water? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 (edited) Uh-oh...EDIT, my point is not that the numbers are deffo wrong - who knows? - but that it's very hard to gauge levels of support accurately. The last factual (mostly) study we had was the last ref vote, and I don't see that the arguments have changed much since then - certainly haven't seen any remain figures reaching out to leavers.... Edited January 6, 2019 by thehowler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, hotblack42 said: Well I'm not suggesting dumping doesn't carry risk. What I actually had in mind was taking non-EU business from EU countries. There are arguments on both sides, but I'm a leaver and if you are a remainer then we'll just go round in circles. Happy to debate, but contradiction will just waste your time and mine. Could you give a specific example how the UK could undercut a EU rival be not applying EU laws? I suppose environmental and health and safety can be dumped. I doubt that will be popular. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, thehowler said: That's another reason why there won't be a 2nd ref. Too much at stake. MPs will never offer the public the WTO nuclear option. May's deal is can-kicking safety...are MPs really going to blow it out of the water? MPs don't have to "offer" the WTO option: it's automatic on 30 March. Frankly I think it's so bad - yes they will vote it down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 29 minutes ago, thehowler said: ....These are the weeks when the remain dream has to die, I'm afraid, rollover. Na, when May's deal convincingly dies, the binary 2nd ref question will be in play. As long as Labour can shut up and don't actually manage to force a GE, they must let Brexit be owned completely by the Tories (and ERG). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, crouch said: MPs don't have to "offer" the WTO option: it's automatic on 30 March. Frankly I think it's so bad - yes they will vote it down. Automatic in the sense that it will happen if nobody does anything to stop it. They will. It's peacetime. We won't crash out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said: Na, when May's deal convincingly dies, the binary 2nd ref question will be in play. As long as Labour can shut up and don't actually manage to force a GE, they must let Brexit be owned completely by the Tories (and ERG). If and when May's deal 'convincingly dies' there will be a new Tory leader, a GE and a new agenda. Plenty of time left for all that before Brexit day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, thehowler said: If there was a vote in mid-March between Boris (make-Brexit-great-again) and Corbs (reluctantly staying in SM) who do you think would win? Corbyn..... probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, thehowler said: I imagine they're confident they could get a two month extension from the EU. But what then? The ONLY reason there could be an extension is for a referendum. Any other reason is unacceptable to the EU. Remember the EU needs UK MEPs gone before the European election Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, thehowler said: If and when May's deal 'convincingly dies' there will be a new Tory leader, a GE and a new agenda. Plenty of time left for all that before Brexit day. How would that work in practice? The ERG have prematurely shot their load - May is internally unimpeachable for 12 months as a result. The Opposition/Labour do not have the numbers to force a no confidence vote. If Parliamentary/Representative democracy works, then Parliament should should vote along the lines of the guesses of 80% of Parliamentarians, and should vote to rescind A50 - but there is no practical mechanism for Parliament to act as it constitutionally should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, thehowler said: Automatic in the sense that it will happen if nobody does anything to stop it. They will. It's peacetime. We won't crash out. Many MPs will try and prevent no deal but there are two obvious stumbling blocks. Firstly they presumably need to have an alternative and, at the moment, that is only May's deal which wouldn't pass. So what is the alternative? Secondly they may not get the HOC to agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, highYield said: How would that work in practice? The ERG have prematurely shot their load - May is internally unimpeachable for 12 months as a result. The Opposition/Labour do not have the numbers to force a no confidence vote. If Parliamentary/Representative democracy works, then Parliament should should vote along the lines of the guesses of 80% of Parliamentarians, and should vote to rescind A50 - but there is no practical mechanism for Parliament to act as it constitutionally should. If May's deal is voted down what remains of her authority is gone and the fact that there cannot be a leadership contest on normal terms for 11 months is blissfully irrelevant under the circumstances. If there are several resignations from the Cabinet May would have to go and there may well be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, crouch said: If May's deal is voted down what remains of her authority is gone and the fact that there cannot be a leadership contest on normal terms for 11 months is blissfully irrelevant under the circumstances. If there are several resignations from the Cabinet May would have to go and there may well be. Possibly. Although there have already been many Cabinet resignations, yet the Maybot trundled on unimpeded. Interesting week next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: The ONLY reason there could be an extension is for a referendum. Any other reason is unacceptable to the EU. Remember the EU needs UK MEPs gone before the European election No, it would have to be for any major political event, including a GE. The parties would have to offer a clear choice to the electorate, so there would be no doubt on the mandate. It would look bullying of the EU not to give us a few months. And I think they are obliged - as KZB has pointed out many times - to work towards a solution for all parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, crouch said: Many MPs will try and prevent no deal but there are two obvious stumbling blocks. Firstly they presumably need to have an alternative and, at the moment, that is only May's deal which wouldn't pass. So what is the alternative? Secondly they may not get the HOC to agree. Remain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 32 minutes ago, thehowler said: Automatic in the sense that it will happen if nobody does anything to stop it. They will. It's peacetime. We won't crash out. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, rollover said: Remain! That wouldn't get through either! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, crouch said: That wouldn't get through either! It might.... hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, thehowler said: A strong push...but not from the party leader! Maybe you think he should be replaced? It's in the interest of 2nd reffers to keep pushing the No Deal idea, but MPs will block it. End of story. If we go to a GE the new leader can ask the EU for an emergency extension/revocation with binding promise to negotiate a FTA or similar outside the SM. Tusk/Barnier have always accepted this as one possible route. These are the weeks when the remain dream has to die, I'm afraid, rollover. Funny enough, recently I was thinking about this. If Jeremy Corbyn refuses to bow Labour majority and keep party split, I think replacing him is an option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, thehowler said: No, it would have to be for any major political event, including a GE. The parties would have to offer a clear choice to the electorate, so there would be no doubt on the mandate. The only 2 parties that matter in our duopoly are political leavers. If Labour changed that, they'd lose their immigration wage suppressed Northern heartlands. If Conservative changed that, they'd lose their blue rinsed brigade (aka the life experienced people trying to undo their witnessed mistake in the 1st referendum). For either component in our duopoly, rescinding or remaining in their manifesto would destroy the party for many elections, perhaps generations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, highYield said: Possibly. Although there have already been many Cabinet resignations, yet the Maybot trundled on unimpeded. Interesting week next week. There is talk about yet another postponing of the vote. If so this is becoming truly bizarre and, at this rate, we will have left before the WA has been voted on ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, thehowler said: No, it would have to be for any major political event, including a GE. The parties would have to offer a clear choice to the electorate, so there would be no doubt on the mandate. It would look bullying of the EU not to give us a few months. And I think they are obliged - as KZB has pointed out many times - to work towards a solution for all parties. They are only obliged to negotiate/offer a solution that is compatible with the existing treaties. They have already done this. KZB's peculiar misinterpretation of the text notwithstanding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said: It might.... hopefully. Never happen. It's a straight slap in the face to the electorate - outright political suicide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, crouch said: There is talk about yet another postponing of the vote. If so this is becoming truly bizarre and, at this rate, we will have left before the WA has been voted on ! Could there be a better illustration of the effectiveness of our current political system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, highYield said: How would that work in practice? The ERG have prematurely shot their load - May is internally unimpeachable for 12 months as a result. The Opposition/Labour do not have the numbers to force a no confidence vote. If Parliamentary/Representative democracy works, then Parliament should should vote along the lines of the guesses of 80% of Parliamentarians, and should vote to rescind A50 - but there is no practical mechanism for Parliament to act as it constitutionally should. All conjecture, natch, but I think there will come a point when the govt can't continue when it's clear they don't command a majority to pass any votes. Any second defeat for May would be catastrophic, I think, that's when you might get a visit from the men in grey suits. Javid looks like he really wants a go. Though I think May's right that all the resistance/briefing against her deal is largely due to MPs not being able to accept the ref vote. They should just take her deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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