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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Just now, GrizzlyDave said:

It's not a straw man. They pay for extras, but they could take the base model if they wanted to. But they like heated seats. As do we.

It is a straw man - I could equally say they are p[aying as they have to.  They could pay for nothing.  They could pay for more.

But the thing is, they don't, they pay what they do, for what they have, as they consider it necessary.

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8 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

How many were polled?  Where was the poll taken?

Polls are notoriously getting it wrong.

Don't know and don't care.

In the absence of anything better - these numbers suggest the 70% figure is about right. (Edit: also interesting to see how opinion seems to be hardening over time to stay out - even with the fall in oil).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway–European_Union_relations

unless you have other more robust evidence to discount it I would let this go.

Edited by GrizzlyDave
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Quote

 

Britons will 'soon regret' Brexit vote

Brexit is "not the future of the EU" insists Jean-Claude Juncker as he insists the "wind is back in Europe's sails".

He told the commission: "We have to respect the will of the British people. But we are going to make progress, we will keep moving, because Brexit isn't everything, it isn't the future of Europe."

He added: "I think you will regret it quite soon." Sky

 

Brexit is now yesterday story for EU.

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9 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Don't know and don't care.

In the absence of anything better - these numbers suggest the 70% figure is about right. (Edit: also interesting to see how opinion seems to be hardening over time to stay out - even with the fall in oil).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway–European_Union_relations

unless you have other more robust evidence to discount it I would let this go.

When you have 'robust' evidence, I will...

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16 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

So, is that suddenly stopping?  I'm slightly confused by your argument...

Not many want it stopped absolutely.  But the message that we need migration bringing under control does seem to have hit home with both Labour and Cons.  Time will tell if it's all talk I suppose.

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14 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Sorry, I disagree it rings true to my experiences as well and I only left Norway 15 months ago after 11 years

One thing that is striking about Norgies is how similar they all are. They all hold pretty much the same opinions.

Its ones of Europes most uniform countries.

The migrants theyve took in over the last 20 years have been a disaster. The consensus is now to help people in the region where they are.

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2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Not many want it stopped absolutely.  But the message that we need migration bringing under control does seem to have hit home with both Labour and Cons.  Time will tell if it's all talk I suppose.

It's true, but all I am seeing in my industry is less EU and more Asians. It's almost binary: either or...

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13 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Is that uniform across you industry (IT?) or is it variable from the bottom to top?

In the past 3 years, lot of Indian managers coming over, but yes, mostly lower to middle workers.  A lot of global consultancies have large presences in India and China, and that's now starting to be reflected in the management tier here.  The elephant in the room is that after 4 years, they can bring in families, with no fiscal requirements on support...

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp

2006 - 38k/head.

2016 - 38k/head.

~30% of inflation since then and an extra ~4m heads, which the stats do not account for.

Once you start putting the correct number of people into that calculation, the figures are dire.

 

Hang on though.  GDP per head specifically divides by the number of heads.  Unless you mean there are an extra 4m population added between 2006 and 2016 not included in official figures?

The official inflation is corrected for also (Constant International Dollars).

PPP means its also corrected for purchasing price parity.

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

No.

Im far enough North to having school exchanges with Norway rather than France.

I know quite a few Norgies, some for 30 odd years.

Ive worked for Norwegian companies and lived there for 3 years.

Thank your for the interesting anecdotal - knowing people from a different country for 3 decades, and working there for 3 years results in more useful anecdotals than "some bloke I met on holiday told me...."

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1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

It is a straw man - I could equally say they are p[aying as they have to.  They could pay for nothing.  They could pay for more.

But the thing is, they don't, they pay what they do, for what they have, as they consider it necessary.

A great deal of what Norway pays to EU is voluntary.  What's more this voluntary element is under Norway's own control.  They can reduce or stop it in the next budget if they choose.  For example they are paying into the regional development budget but they are not compelled to do so.

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President Trump has visited Florida to see the aftermath of Hurricane Irma . After inspecting the damage, he went over to the barricade where the public were and started to go down the line shaking hands and offering words of reassurance.

Coming to a British tourist, he opened with his standard line, "Where have you come from?" The Brit replied "Britain."

"Britain? I don't know that place; what state is it in?" asked the president.

The man looked around at the devastation and replied, "Much like this really."

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1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

When you have 'robust' evidence, I will...

I'd say that the most compelling reason that the UK isn't in the same situation as Norway is that we are broke, and the Norwegians are not. 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-tops-1-trillion-for-the-first-time-2017-9?r=US&IR=T

Quote

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, totalled $1 trillion for the first time on Tuesday as booming global stock markets and a rising euro lifted the value of its assets.

...

Established in 1998 to save oil and gas revenues for future generations, the fund is now worth about 2.5 times Norway's annual gross domestic product, against original projections it would peak at 1.3 times GDP in the 2020s.

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24 minutes ago, kzb said:

Hang on though.  GDP per head specifically divides by the number of heads.  Unless you mean there are an extra 4m population added between 2006 and 2016 not included in official figures?

The official inflation is corrected for also (Constant International Dollars).

PPP means its also corrected for purchasing price parity.

Yes to the extra head.

PPP is not useful fo rthis comparison.

The UK has took in about ~6m since the early 2000s.

If migration benefited a countries economy then we'd see it in the GDP figures. We dont.

Official GDP/h is rouhgly the same as 10 years ago.

The national debt and deficit  have ballooned. Sterlings in the toilet.

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57 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

In the past 3 years, lot of Indian managers coming over, but yes, mostly lower to middle workers.  A lot of global consultancies have large presences in India and China, and that's now starting to be reflected in the management tier here.  The elephant in the room is that after 4 years, they can bring in families, with no fiscal requirements on support...

And how does that compare with anyone in the EU who can bring over anyone they chose to without any fiscal requirements from day 1 

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2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Yes to the extra head.

PPP is not useful fo rthis comparison.

The UK has took in about ~6m since the early 2000s.

If migration benefited a countries economy then we'd see it in the GDP figures. We dont.

Official GDP/h is rouhgly the same as 10 years ago.

The national debt and deficit  have ballooned. Sterlings in the toilet.

It isn't, as you can from the graph.

23 minutes ago, highYield said:

Thank your for the interesting anecdotal - knowing people from a different country for 3 decades, and working there for 3 years results in more useful anecdotals than "some bloke I met on holiday told me...."

Obviously as this is aimed at me, I'll respond: I lived in France for 6 years, have been mingling with french for almost 35 years and holiday there all summer, every summer since 2002.  I know what the French zeitgeist is.

I am also high suspicious that someone is coming on here, discussing Norway, then after a while, somehow fashions up having lived there and conversed with the folk for 30 years.  Call me sceptical...

 

united-kingdom-gdp-per-capita.png

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