R K Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 1979. hope that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hackney Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This time it's different. This time it will be slow and horrible (for those over-leveraged, trapped etc). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exiled Canadian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I voted 2016, although I have concerns it will take even longer. The Telegraph article about the postie really opened my eyes. The fact that people believe that by taking out 50% leverage interest only and buying property to rent out can feed themselves and three kids with basically "free money" appals me. No thought given to the fact that this scheme only "works" at to days ultra low interest rates (if it does at all), that the borrower is underwriting all of the debt, that managing a property 300 miles away is fraught with hassle and the risk of being ripped off, or that the trade will be very difficult to unwind if the market moves against you. The supply of "greater fools" and lenders prepared to lend them cash seems infinite. Add to this the fact that any Gov't is going to fight like hell to avoid an interest rate rise and the resultant impact on house prices and I think it will be a bit more time yet before we see significant house price falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 (edited) This time it's different. This time it will be slow and horrible (for those over-leveraged, trapped etc). It was slow and horrible then the pre-election tories made it all "better" with their £50B printed money give away and 20% banker deposit guarantee. It's not going to be slow and horrible it's going to be hard and fast due to that stupidity. When london tanks, the UK housing market tanks.... Edited February 3, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exiled Canadian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 (edited) I think that the gov't will throw more printed money at the market (HTB 3), direct repurchase of CMBS from banks etc. The last time round demonstrated to me that HPI is the only engine of GDP growth in this country (anyone else notice how confidence seemed to improve once house prices started moving?). Don't get me wrong, I think it's nuts and merely defers the rebalancing that's needed in this country, but I don't see a politician with the vision and toughness to take us through the pain. Edited February 3, 2015 by Exiled Canadian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The Lawson boom springs to mind. It was before my time but I will read up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I voted 2016, although I have concerns it will take even longer. Funny you should post Mr/s Canadian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I don;t agree with a 'collapse' in a single 'month'. Every thing does not suddenly end. Things tend to fall apart in pieces. Not everything is connected. You can only look at one market at a time: some are connected; some are not. I guess London will started showing some noticable negative falls by April. I would guess the FED will start normalising rates to a low level - 3% - in May-ish. I think the BoE will have to follow the next month, which, due to the leverage involved in London/Se (postie with 400k mortage + 400k of BTLers) will cause chaos as people find out that the 'government' may try and buck the trend but cannot turn the world's economies to suit UK housing. I'm on Earth which one are you on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The Fed have been talking the talk on raising rates for a year now. Hard to see how they can do it, hard to know what the dollar holders will start to think when they don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If you saw a house on the market now that they would sell at -30%, would you buy it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If you saw a house on the market now that they would sell at -30%, would you buy it? If it was one I was after, yes. And that's because I don't have any confidence that any savings I might have are safe from future confiscation/plundering, come the zombie apocalypse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julieannboo Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I want london to tank or at least take 20% of the prices. Being 37 and still at home with a deposit for a place but cant afford the prices as i am rubbish money aint no fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 If you saw a house on the market now that they would sell at -30%, would you buy it? is that, thirty percent off the asking prices they've bumped up in the last twelve months but can't sell at? No thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It will not be the cost to buy...it will be the cost to pay for, either via price of credit or income. -30% not a problem at 1% interest and rising wages.....quite another thing -30% at 5% + interest and falling real wages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 (edited) Labour and SNP in power. Markets shit their pants. Cost of borrowing soars as per Iceland. So about October by the time its worked through a bit? Here's hoping. Plus UKIP strongly in the mix, default in Greece or impasse with the negotiations, more countries (France, Italy, Spain) telling the EU to wind their neck in and voting to have less immigrants jumping borders without any checks or accountability, oh and Russia is going to start thrashing about like an angry bear....and HamPish`s hoose in Aberdeen will lose 50% of it`s "value". Edited February 3, 2015 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Betfair has CONLIB winning again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crashman Begins Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Where's wont happen till 2020-25 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm on Earth which one are you on? Earth. I'm not saying they will set them to 3% instantly. I'm guessing they start with very low increases - 0.1 every 2 months. QE is seen more + more like a failure for the average American, and more + more like free money to the rich. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 No. Rates may rise but they'll peak at 1-2% and then fall to 0% or -ve. No rise till end of this year and prob not 'ever' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I see a similar hubris in predicting IRS will never rise to those claims of financial turmoil expected in 2004ish as the US government paid off all its government debt. How knows - maybe China will get tired of making stuff and decided its easier and more profitable to loan money to west at userious rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trampa501 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Where's wont happen till 2020-25 ? Blimey. I'd guess few would agree with you, but there is a nagging fear you are right. Another 6 to 10 years of this madness? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 (edited) October, is the winner. Thanks to all who voted.....time will tell who is right, Edited February 4, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Earth. I'm not saying they will set them to 3% instantly. I'm guessing they start with very low increases - 0.1 every 2 months. QE is seen more + more like a failure for the average American, and more + more like free money to the rich. Sorry I thought this thread was about 2015 and your May related to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Maybe longing for a house price crash is a bit like the quest for human-level artificial intelligence? Ask any AI expert when it's coming and they'll predict in about 20 years, but they were saying that back in the 50s. It keeps moving back as it fails to happen. Confess I'm feeling a little that way reading this and the Prime London Crashing thread, given it's February and a lot of posts anticipated something breaking by now, deeper and more widespread. No show. It's an affliction, being an HPC outsider... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Sorry I thought this thread was about 2015 and your May related to that. Well, I don;t think we'll go to bed one night and wake up with everything crashed in the morning. To be honest, in the towns I track, the crash has already happened - the number of transaction are about 20% of a normal market. The prices are bound to follow. Its only low IR thats giving a zombie like feel to the whole exercise. MMR was a good thing - for people taking out mortgages - as its stopped people getting into deals that will bankrupt them soon. Everything so wierd,so leveraged, so taking too long - FFS the UK has been on its ar4se since 2007 - 7 fcking years! And we've wasted that time - people still have too much debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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