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TheCountOfNowhere

2015: Which Month Will The Collapse Come ?

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I think a few of us lately have got the feeling something is really quite wrong.

The London mega bubble is at insane levels even though sales volumes and prices are in decline.

The stock market, come rain or shine, goes up or hovers at it's all time high level

China is in a bad way

Greece is trying to set it's self free

Russia is at war !!!! The Ukraine are conscripting men for goodness sake.

The price of oil has gone.

2014 has come and gone, MMR has been introduced and FLS has been withdrawn ( supposedly ).

The powers that be (useless ) are trying to save us all from deflation ( or negative inflation is your a marketing man ),

Nothing bodes well, something is going to give, but when......

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I don;t agree with a 'collapse' in a single 'month'.

Every thing does not suddenly end. Things tend to fall apart in pieces.

Not everything is connected. You can only look at one market at a time: some are connected; some are not.

I guess London will started showing some noticable negative falls by April.

I would guess the FED will start normalising rates to a low level - 3% - in May-ish.

I think the BoE will have to follow the next month, which, due to the leverage involved in London/Se (postie with 400k mortage + 400k of BTLers) will cause chaos as people find out that the 'government' may try and buck the trend but cannot turn the world's economies to suit UK housing.

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Things have been wrong for years, I expect they'll stay that way for years yet. It's not as though economists/politicians are telling us things are good, they all seem spooked and openly negative about the future. Crystal ball time, I'd guess:

- slowly declining GDP but no shocks up to election

- another weak(er) colation take power

- two-party democracy plainly no longer fit for purpose, continued rise of smaller parties and regional fragmentation

- Fed will renege on raising rates, UK slumps after the summer, interest rate cut in the autumn and talk of more QE being needed

- winter, full QE

- thereafter, four more years of low growth, prudence/shinking public sector, to get us up to next election

- oh, and house prices (outside prime London/SE maybe) stabilize - no reason for them to go down with so much cheap money sloshing around - possibly nudge up a few percent per year on the back of savers/OAPs looking for some kind of yield on ever-declining savings.

Just because things look as though they must collapse, doesn't mean they will.

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I don;t agree with a 'collapse' in a single 'month'.

Every thing does not suddenly end. Things tend to fall apart in pieces.

Not everything is connected. You can only look at one market at a time: some are connected; some are not.

I guess London will started showing some noticable negative falls by April.

I would guess the FED will start normalising rates to a low level - 3% - in May-ish.

I think the BoE will have to follow the next month, which, due to the leverage involved in London/Se (postie with 400k mortage + 400k of BTLers) will cause chaos as people find out that the 'government' may try and buck the trend but cannot turn the world's economies to suit UK housing.

I tend to agree, but I get the feeling that came a hot month in July the Greek people are going to decide the people they elected to sort out Europe are just as bad as the other people and we might see a bit of trouble.

Plus we have the general election, so though could have a massive effect on things when the SNP control England, The yanks might ( probably wont ) put interest rates up, the BoE WILL follow. The news that london house price falls are accelerating should be public knowledge in June.

So July, that's the month for me.

Any sane man will pick December, then you're not wrong for longer :lol:

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Things have been wrong for years, I expect they'll stay that way for years yet. It's not as though economists/politicians are telling us things are good...

I think things have got MUCH worse for people over the last 2 years, certainly on housing costs and especially in London. There is no recovery.

It doesnt take a rocket scientist to see where this graph is going next:

article-0-21AC970B00000578-537_634x501.j

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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No option to say it wont crash this year.

In the next few months, we can look forward to a boost to prices from the stamp duty changes, the releasing of pension funds and the impact of European QE. If things look shaky in the UK economy and the official inflation figures are sub 2%, I expect more QE here too.

In short, I've not been this pessimistic about a HPC for a long time.

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Do you mean everything or just house prices?

I'm noticing 10 - 20k drops in Yorkshire, I'm just keeping an eye on my local area. I'm seeing houses come on sit for months, chop around various EAs then cuts in price and still nothing. I just got a leaflet through the door for new builds at the street over offering all sorts and HTB but why would I want that when bungalows in my own street are already taking 20k haircuts?

As for a collapse in the world economy I think its inevitable, I am prepared for that if its just a couple of weeks of upheaval and bank runs or if its a full blown mad max scenario where I have to fight the great humongous over a pack of tesco value sausages in a post apocalyptic desert.

Im cool either way, Im just glad I didnt buy that bungalow last year cause I have already saved 20k on it and I haven't even bought it yet. Im riding this bitch all the way down.

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Trying to give up guesse anything theses days but the last time i seen a headline like the one on this thread http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203075-buying-and-selling-homes-is-becoming-britains-biggest-business/ was in a Irish paper when i was in Dublin around about 2006 but the article was saying exactly the same thing about Ireland not the UK

The market in Irelad was well on the way to collapse before the financial crash, there was no real geopolitical catastrophe need to trigger the collapse

Here's for hoping

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Trying to give up guesse anything theses days but the last time i seen a headline like the one on this thread http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203075-buying-and-selling-homes-is-becoming-britains-biggest-business/ was in a

Just a bit of fun on this cold snowy day.

I just get the feeling that, like 2007, something aint right.

I am seeing house listed on rightmove around northampton that can only be being market to london/foreign buyers.

Housing prices even in small cr*ppy towns are party to mass speculation.

It is not going to end well, whether this year or the next.

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Just a bit of fun on this cold snowy day.

I just get the feeling that, like 2007, something aint right.

I am seeing house listed on rightmove around northampton that can only be being market to london/foreign buyers.

Housing prices even in small cr*ppy towns are party to mass speculation.

It is not going to end well, whether this year or the next.

Getting the same feeling but there are still to many rabbits left in the hat when it comes to housing (the UK`s biggest industry scam) baring a total melt down of some sort all i can see is a slow grind down which is already under way in my neck of the woods it dose seem to be happening at the margins tough (top and bottom of the market is falling with the middle stuck in no mans land)

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Getting the same feeling but there are still to many rabbits left in the hat when it comes to housing (the UK`s biggest industry scam) baring a total melt down of some sort all i can see is a slow grind down which is already under way in my neck of the woods it dose seem to be happening at the margins tough (top and bottom of the market is falling with the middle stuck in no mans land)

The slow grind was well under way round northants in 2012, then the tories thought they'd help us use all our futures to buy an election.....

I look at the land registry today for Northampton, has gone up about 8% in 19 months from the stable ( tax payer supported ) position that it stayed at for 3 years, that in itself must have taken some massive effort/fraud!!!!.

The index is now about 8% below the peak madness of 2007 and looks like the increases are starting to tail off.

What I see though are asking prices that are 20-30% above 2007 peak prices....so how does that work ?

Asking prices could easily collapse if/when the agents panic.

The market looks like it's ground slowed massively at the end of last year again and when london collapses the indexes will go so far negative no one will be rushing to buy a house any time soon.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I think a few of us lately have got the feeling something is really quite wrong.

Has there been any 24 hour period in the last ten years when that sentence could not have been posted here?

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Has there been any 24 hour period in the last ten years when that sentence could not have been posted here?

:lol::lol:

I added a couple of extra options for anyone from mumsnet that trolls here

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Don't you mean which month will it start? Thus, you're asking when's the top?

The inference is the crash will take place in A month

Haven't we seen the top?

Edited by Killer Bunny

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Don't you mean which month will it start? Thus, you're asking when's the top?

The inference is the crash will take place in A month

Haven't we seen the top?

Im saying when will there be some discernible event, like the greeks leaving the euro, like a big building society collapsing and being allowed to die or the land registry dropping off a cliff, an even that will end peoples belief in forever HPI and the "recovery" lie.

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Why would cost of borrowing soar? They're giving the stuff away...

Should have said costs of government borrowing will soar.

As per Iceland.

Not one politician in this country will be prepared to raise rates voluntarily.

They know that the majority of people will not see it as a demonstration of confidence and strength, they will see it as another strand of rope twanging above their head.

Average brit is HARD WIRED to IRs staying low for their lifetime.

Stupid, greedy, fools.

So the only thing that will get rates up is a loss of international confidence in the UK Gubmint du jour. If confidence is lost the credit default swap thingy that screwed Iceland will swing against us, forcing up the rate we have to offer. I watched that rate increase every day and often imagine how that would play out here.

Osborne has played something of a blinder keeping the confidence abroad so high. Will it continue? Much less likely to under a swarm of socialists surely.

Osborne is even swaggering in front of TV cameras to tell the euro zone how to do it.

When any fule kno that all it would have taken to cause our own HPC was joining the Euro.

I saw him telling Peston earlier that Greece had to be "responsible". :lol: How many billion have you creeated out of thin ******ing air man?

Truly through the round window. NOBODY picks him up on any of this.

I think rates nudging up to even just 2-3 % will cause armageddon in the british housing market. prices in my bit of Dorset are at best stagnant at worst having £15k regularly lopped off and we havent even got going yet. Carnage awaits.

But I also think a rate hike is the only way to fully guarantee it happening. Because it represents an event outside the UK govmnts control.

While they appear to have control, nothing substantial will happen in my view.

I'm sure this is all HPC 101 for 99% of people here, including yourself, but i feel better for sketching out my, somewhat rudimentary, optimistic, thoughts.

Edited by shindigger

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Im saying when will there be some discernible event, like the greeks leaving the euro, like a big building society collapsing and being allowed to die or the land registry dropping off a cliff, an even that will end peoples belief in forever HPI and the "recovery" lie.

Greece leaving € will not be an EVENT per se. It will be side show

Beliefs will last for years, even as prices fall. It will come back up. It will come back up. over and over

It may be that we've seen the top in stock markets (if we accept S&P500) as 'stock markets'. Thus it's happened and 2008.2 is upon us. On verra

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Greece leaving € will not be an EVENT per se. It will be side show

Beliefs will last for years, even as prices fall. It will come back up. It will come back up. over and over

It may be that we've seen the top in stock markets (if we accept S&P500) as 'stock markets'. Thus it's happened and 2008.2 is upon us. On verra

The beliefs have lasted for years.

I've seen some houses for sale for 4 years now. If no one will pay that price, that is not it's value.

I've even seen a couple of houses not sell for 4 years put their prices up £50K last year, it was like the EAs all round the country had been asked to push up prices.

I am now starting to see paranoid :D:D:D

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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