crashmonitor Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Here's one for zug, a fellow doomster from Moneyweek. Trouble with the shorting a crash on the FTSE at the moment is that, unlike the DOW, progress from the 5768 summer nadir has been very circumspect; we are still bumping along the lower half of the year's trading range. http://moneyweek.com/spread-betting/decision-time-in-the-ftse/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Here's one for zug, a fellow doomster from Moneyweek. Trouble with the shorting a crash on the FTSE at the moment is that, unlike the DOW, progress from the 5768 summer nadir has been very circumspect; we are still bumping along the lower half of the year's trading range. http://moneyweek.com/spread-betting/decision-time-in-the-ftse/ Thanks for that, cm. My SUK2 positions are looking increasingly flat, a big move down would be very helpful. The only real concern I have right now is Draghi. A big enough stunt from that clown could fire up a santa claus rally. I don't want to see that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 And your liftoff narrative? Any day now, right? Lift off aint a pre-requisite. Weve been in a raging bull since March 9th 2009. All lift off will do is give it a turbo boost into the final blow off phase. It matters not what day it is, right? Pay attention - Janet is spoon feeding you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 fastFT @fastFT 7m7 minutes ago October has been a merry month for markets. Here are the highlights http://on.ft.com/1KJPPTO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The ONS seems to think things are going a bit wrong, they never like to admit it though. 30 October 2015 Download PDF Contents Abstract Acknowledgements Main Points An Introduction to FDI FDI and the Current Account FDI by Economic Region Rates of Return Distributions FDI Earnings by Industry FDI by Size of Investment New and Existing FDI Exchange Rate Movements Annex Background notes Abstract The balance of the UK current account has remained in deficit for over three decades, largely driven by deficits in trade and secondary income. However, more recently, the primary income deficit has deteriorated, turning from a surplus to a deficit, resulting in the current account deficit reaching a record high in 2014. This decline in primary income was largely driven by falls in direct investment income. This article presents analysis on the key drivers behind this change, with particular focus on: the performance of FDI with different economic regions, industries and firm size; the distributions of rates of return over time; and the effects of currency fluctuations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 (edited) The ONS seems to think things are going a bit wrong, they never like to admit it though. 30 October 2015 Download PDF Contents Abstract Acknowledgements Main Points An Introduction to FDI FDI and the Current Account FDI by Economic Region Rates of Return Distributions FDI Earnings by Industry FDI by Size of Investment New and Existing FDI Exchange Rate Movements Annex Background notes Abstract The balance of the UK current account has remained in deficit for over three decades, largely driven by deficits in trade and secondary income. However, more recently, the primary income deficit has deteriorated, turning from a surplus to a deficit, resulting in the current account deficit reaching a record high in 2014. This decline in primary income was largely driven by falls in direct investment income. This article presents analysis on the key drivers behind this change, with particular focus on: the performance of FDI with different economic regions, industries and firm size; the distributions of rates of return over time; and the effects of currency fluctuations Tell me about, bloody nightmare trying to earn a crust from investments this last year. Income from UK investments abroad particularly in the commodities field the only thing that enabled Britain to almost balance things out. Edited October 30, 2015 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silverfinger Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Thanks for that, cm. My SUK2 positions are looking increasingly flat, a big move down would be very helpful. The only real concern I have right now is Draghi. A big enough stunt from that clown could fire up a santa claus rally. I don't want to see that. Because of these Bozos, thousands of financial maths and insurance maths lecture notes, tutorials and textbooks have to be changed from i>0 and r>0 to i > -infinity and r > - infinity. Grrr! What a waste of time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 (edited) fastFT @fastFT 7m7 minutes ago October has been a merry month for markets. Here are the highlights http://on.ft.com/1KJPPTO Sharp slide into the closing bell this evening. Did someone get wind of S&P's credit rating cut for Saudi Arabia? 16% budget deficit! Krugman must be advising them. Edited October 31, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormymonday_2011 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 (edited) Sharp slide into the closing bell this evening. Did someone get wind of S&P's credit rating cut for Saudi Arabia? 16% budget deficit! Krugman must be advising them. Death of the petrodollar ?How does a currency system predicated on recycling oil profits through the dollar survive when the big oil producer nations start running budget deficits ? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/10/07/2141691/on-the-actual-reality-of-no-more-petrodollars/ Answers on a post card please to POTUS Washington D.C. USA. On edit - Bloomberg mentions a study which suggests that high oil prices generated something in the region of 400 billion dollars of global demand for financial and other assets. This is equivalent to all the central bank QE between 2010 and 2014. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-07/barclays-petrodollars-were-basically-another-quantitative-easing Sooner or later that is going to hurt. Edited October 31, 2015 by stormymonday_2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Death of the petrodollar ? How does a currency system predicated on recycling oil profits through the dollar survive when the big oil producer nations start running budget deficits ? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/10/07/2141691/on-the-actual-reality-of-no-more-petrodollars/ Answers on a post card please to POTUS Washington D.C. USA. On edit - Bloomberg mentions a study which suggests that high oil prices generated something in the region of 400 billion dollars of global demand for financial and other assets. This is equivalent to all the central bank QE between 2010 and 2014. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-07/barclays-petrodollars-were-basically-another-quantitative-easing Sooner or later that is going to hurt. By their estimates, the amount of petrodollar investment between 2010 and 2014 was on a similar scale to the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program known as quantitative easing. As petrodollar flows reverse, they argue, the world has lost a hefty $400bn in annual demand for financial assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormymonday_2011 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 (edited) By their estimates, the amount of petrodollar investment between 2010 and 2014 was on a similar scale to the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program known as quantitative easing. As petrodollar flows reverse, they argue, the world has lost a hefty $400bn in annual demand for financial assets. Surpised this is not getting more play in the media. If the oil producers have to start converting assets into cash they are going to need buyers. Who is hoovering up all the treasuries, gilts and bonds, apart from the Central Banks that is ? How much of that oil money was stuck into real estate around the world ? Edited October 31, 2015 by stormymonday_2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 (edited) fastFT @fastFT 7m7 minutes ago October has been a merry month for markets. Here are the highlights http://on.ft.com/1KJPPTO FTSe 100 has been a bit handicapped by carrying all those commodities. http://www.cmcmarkets.co.uk/en/blog/2015/10/30/why-ftse-100-sober-october-stock-party Live futures index.... http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/ftse-100?CHID=1&QPID=11433318&QPPID=1&s_kwcid=AL!3219!3!74777119482!b!!g!!%2Bftse%20%2B100%20%2Bfutures&gclid=CMeJ0OXE7MgCFSgcwwodFCIJ-Q&ef_id=VjScXAAABHgsBhD8:20151031104934:s Edited October 31, 2015 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Sharp slide into the closing bell this evening. Did someone get wind of S&P's credit rating cut for Saudi Arabia? 16% budget deficit! Krugman must be advising them. that's a jaw dropping figure, as far as I can see with population growth and wars this spending can only go up (saw a report saying it will be 19% next year, but obviously who knows cos the oil price may change), obviously one day the budget will be forced down, and there will probably be a war in Saudi then...we live in interesting times! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Would be very unusual to regain peak in only a couple of months. Price dislocations typically take longer than that. 1987 (as an extreme example) took 2 years in nominal terms. 2011 took 9 months. But this is still a strong bull market so it may recover more rapidly. Obviously it is overbought near term (daily) so will likely give up some of this move in next month or so. But that will simply be another buying opp in this long (and much derided) bull market. Bingo bongo. Close (SPX) but no cigar. Next attempt looks more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_growlers_* Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 (edited) Don't feel too bad. At leaste you didn't call an uptrend (until it isn't) in gold! Edited November 13, 2015 by growlers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Bingo bongo. Close (SPX) but no cigar. Next attempt looks more likely. Bull market? You're barking mad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Next leg down is starting, this looks like it will take 2 years to bottom similar to the 2000-2002 FTSE100 period as apposed to the 07/08 crash. bit painfully slow but in a way its nice to be able to have a bit extra saved up to buy the lows. Maybe buy a fancy house for cheap in 2017 or 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 (edited) Next leg down is starting, this looks like it will take 2 years to bottom similar to the 2000-2002 FTSE100 period as apposed to the 07/08 crash. bit painfully slow but in a way its nice to be able to have a bit extra saved up to buy the lows. Maybe buy a fancy house for cheap in 2017 or 2018 The debt ceiling was behind the recent (fake) run up in US stocks, which is why the move wasn't mirrored in the UK or Europe. The US Treasury spent months pumping cash into the market rather than siphoning it off to avoid breaching the debt limit. $140bn in the month of October alone. Now that the debt ceiling has been lifted the Treasury is pounding the markets with fresh securities and cash management bills to recover what's been spent maintaining the 'business as usual' facade. A giant hoover up and down the length of Wall Street. As I see it, unless Yellen opts for another massive round of QE here, fundamentals must re-assert themselves. Yet the global macro environment is dire, worse even than 2008. All you really need is patience. Deflation is only painful if you're leveraged the wrong way. Edited November 14, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Thanks for that. I did wonder why the DOW looked like it was doing a moon-shoot and at one point looked like breaking a new high! looks like the DOW has even more catching up to do to better mirror the FTSE100. Looks really clear now that we are heading into another recession. just hope the housing market will start to implode soon, getting a bit sick of stubborn sellers asking peak 2007 prices and not selling for years. I want to see these people get burnt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinAndPlatonic Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The suckers going down..everything from Rolls Royce, Miners, Steel to House prices are now showing a grinding halt.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 i can see a nice fall over the next 2 or 3 weeks. followed by a small rally which will be seen as a 'santa claus rally' and splashed over the news sites. so as money rotates out of stocks whats next? gold, bonds? or will this be a tight money recession and cash will be king? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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