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zugzwang

Big Black Monthly Thread

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OK, had to make it an official thread. ^_^

Carney's been out flapping his gums again this afternoon, maybe that's spooked the markets. Maybe the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East is shaking out a few of the weaker hands? Or perhaps it's belated recognition of the seriousness of Yellen's intention to turn off the taps and start tightening the screw?

Anyway, as ever: Stay short. Get out sterling. Trade safe.

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The problem is if they don't tighten and increase interest rates whilst there is the illusion of recover, they won't be able to cut when recession strikes. Essentially making themselves redundant as there is nothing they can do - sorry interest rates are 0%, we know there is a recession, but we just can't do anything.

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sorry interest rates are 0%, we know there is a recession, but we just can't do anything.

Haha. That kind of thinking is sooooooo 2006.

I think I would expect some further manipulation of market interest rates and the like to drive reflexive behavior al la every major central bank since 2008.

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I'm Mr Always-Fully-Invested-in-Equities. I'm poorer than I was in August. But somewhat richer than I was in May 2009.

Not sure how I'll react to a full on bear market or mega-drop. I've been there before but was a few years younger and still enjoying my job so investing was more of an abstract exercise. I'm now mentally ready to live off the divis but reckon I'd be too shell shocked to hand in my notice if my pot takes a 50% haircut the day before.

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Has your clock been repossessed ?

He did not keep up repayments on a mortgage or other loan secured on it. :(

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Don't people here call the top every few weeks?

Stopped clock and all that.

Yep, it was black Friday the another week. Just remember that even a stopped clock has the correct time twice a day! One day one of these treads will be bang on with it's timing! :P

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I'm Mr Always-Fully-Invested-in-Equities. I'm poorer than I was in August. But somewhat richer than I was in May 2009.

Not sure how I'll react to a full on bear market or mega-drop. I've been there before but was a few years younger and still enjoying my job so investing was more of an abstract exercise. I'm now mentally ready to live off the divis but reckon I'd be too shell shocked to hand in my notice if my pot takes a 50% haircut the day before.

Dividends are a fair chunk of my income. I have to keep reminding myself that the share price isn't that important, I'm not there for capital gains, it's the dividend stream that counts. I've been careful putting together a portfolio that's as bomb proof as possible when it comes to that dividend stream (avoid HSBC because they could be subject to fines big enough to force a divi cut, avoid the oil majors because they're selling assets to fund dividend payments, be careful with utilities because they're subject to political control etc).

But it's still nerve wracking when the market wobbles!

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OK, had to make it an official thread. ^_^

Carney's been out flapping his gums again this afternoon, maybe that's spooked the markets. Maybe the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East is shaking out a few of the weaker hands? Or perhaps it's belated recognition of the seriousness of Yellen's intention to turn off the taps and start tightening the screw?

Anyway, as ever: Stay short. Get out sterling. Trade safe.

Hows that working for you this year?

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Dividends are a fair chunk of my income. I have to keep reminding myself that the share price isn't that important, I'm not there for capital gains, it's the dividend stream that counts. I've been careful putting together a portfolio that's as bomb proof as possible when it comes to that dividend stream (avoid HSBC because they could be subject to fines big enough to force a divi cut, avoid the oil majors because they're selling assets to fund dividend payments, be careful with utilities because they're subject to political control etc).

But it's still nerve wracking when the market wobbles!

I'd love a bombproof divi-stream. Had my share of cutters, freezers, and "re-basers" over the years!

As for your "avoid" list:

HSBC - yup, got some of them. Even bought some more in the RI a couple of years back.

RDSB - yup, got those.

BP - yup, have held through thick and oil-spill thin,

SSE/CNA/NG/SVT - yup, yup, yup, and yup again!

Fortunately, I have 25 or so other holdings!

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Don't people here call the top every few weeks?

Stopped clock and all that.

It's a good board to understand issues, but yes, the markets can stay irrational far longer than most of us can stay awake (sheeple)!!!

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