crashmonitor Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 (edited) Got to hand it to the Yanks at 17,500 in after close trading; they are leaving base camp 3 and are within a few days push of the previous peak. Meanwhile the UK is still stuck at base camp, taking it cautiously, not even making the 50% retrace. A tail of woe just like the last 16 years for the FTSE. http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/wall-street Edited October 23, 2015 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 (edited) Got to hand it to the Yanks at 17,500 in after close trading; they are leaving base camp 3 and are within a few days push of the previous peak. Meanwhile the UK is still stuck at base camp, taking it cautiously, not even making the 50% retrace. A tail of woe just like the last 16 years for the FTSE. http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/wall-street FTSE has much bigger exposure to the commodities deflation coming out of China and EMs. Edited October 23, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well every dog has to have its day, I'll stick with the FTSE for now. Hard to believe that there were points pre-2000 when the FTSE was ahead of the DOW on the rebased 1983 measure of 1000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Got to hand it to the Yanks at 17,500 in after close trading; they are leaving base camp 3 and are within a few days push of the previous peak. Meanwhile the UK is still stuck at base camp, taking it cautiously, not even making the 50% retrace. A tail of woe just like the last 16 years for the FTSE. http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/wall-street Would be very unusual to regain peak in only a couple of months. Price dislocations typically take longer than that. 1987 (as an extreme example) took 2 years in nominal terms. 2011 took 9 months. But this is still a strong bull market so it may recover more rapidly. Obviously it is overbought near term (daily) so will likely give up some of this move in next month or so. But that will simply be another buying opp in this long (and much derided) bull market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well I did speak a bit too soon re. the FTSE. Made a bit of ground and the 50% retrace in the last few minutes. May be they have made base camp one after all. I need to keep talking it down obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well I did speak a bit too soon re. the FTSE. Made a bit of ground and the 50% retrace in the last few minutes. May be they have made base camp one after all. I need to keep talking it down obviously. There's simply no where else to put your money as far as I am concerned. I'm up about 8% since the start of the year. How is cash doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Meanwhile, back in the real world, Italy becomes the sixteenth European country to join the 2Y negative yield club! Yay, Super Mario!! https://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2015/10/22/italys-2y-sovereign-yield-goes-negative-16th-european-country-to-have-negative-2y-sov-yield/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justthisbloke Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 There's simply no where else to put your money as far as I am concerned. I'm up about 8% since the start of the year. How is cash doing? YTD, I'm at around 0% total return inc divis. Which is not too bad considering slight overexposure to oiles and miners. As I'm only really interested in the divis, I can afford to be relatively sanguine. My problem is non-equity diversification. Diversification is supposed to be our only free lunch but at 2%, it's a pretty bare plate if you whack cash into fixed term savings bonds. I've just come to the end of one paying 4% so I'm feeling skint just now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 (edited) Well indeed if Italy is seen as more credit worthy than the UK something is slightly wrong. Default is in the Italian DNA, how many bloody times have they defaulted and how many times has the UK since the late 1600s, I can answer for the UK, zero, in spite of Napoleon, Hitler and god knows what else.. Italy more times than some people have had hot dinners probably. Bonds in la la land, rather makes a good case for Equity. Edited October 23, 2015 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 YTD, I'm at around 0% total return inc divis. Which is not too bad considering slight overexposure to oiles and miners. As I'm only really interested in the divis, I can afford to be relatively sanguine. My problem is non-equity diversification. Diversification is supposed to be our only free lunch but at 2%, it's a pretty bare plate if you whack cash into fixed term savings bonds. I've just come to the end of one paying 4% so I'm feeling skint just now! YTD 21.11% http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/f/fundsmith-equity-class-i-accumulation/charts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 YTD, I'm at around 0% total return inc divis. Which is not too bad considering slight overexposure to oiles and miners. As I'm only really interested in the divis, I can afford to be relatively sanguine. My problem is non-equity diversification. Diversification is supposed to be our only free lunch but at 2%, it's a pretty bare plate if you whack cash into fixed term savings bonds. I've just come to the end of one paying 4% so I'm feeling skint just now! Well the tracker I trade started the year at 2.739 it will close at 2.76 today (roughly) as it is based on the noon fix . So yeah, with dividends, should be about breaking even. Since the collapse in June rather been sitting on my hands hoping for a revisit to my last trade so I can start trading again may be. I could sell at a loss hoping for this much forecast second leg down to. Creek no paddle if it didn't materialise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Chinese govt slashes interest rates again. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11950528/China-cuts-interest-rates-as-policymakers-step-up-stimulus-efforts.html Die ponzi scum, die!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 ECB and Chicom confirmation of December liftoff?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsey Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Chinese govt slashes interest rates again. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11950528/China-cuts-interest-rates-as-policymakers-step-up-stimulus-efforts.html Die ponzi scum, die!! And yet markets react overwhelmingly postitively! I guess they were expecting it, now lets just wait for the next cut because this one will do sod all..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 And yet markets react overwhelmingly postitively! I guess they were expecting it, now lets just wait for the next cut because this one will do sod all..... Well I guess any interest rate move downwards makes the Equity yield look more attractive, be it with the risk of a capital loss. At one time you used to get a decent 3% return on bond and building societies over dividend yield to compensate for the lack of capital growth potential. now it seems we are stuck with the bizarre status of negative real bond returns and about 2% on building society fixes as compared to 4%ish return on Equity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silverfinger Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 And yet markets react overwhelmingly postitively! I guess they were expecting it, now lets just wait for the next cut because this one will do sod all..... As Jim Puplava pointed out in the most recent FSN, many companies and banks literally swim in cash at the moment, and bonds pay zero interest. So, money pours into the stock market. This is the mark of the hyper-inflation beast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_northshore_* Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I think he said money might move into stocks if rates and stocks rise. But he definitely said banks are charging institutions to keep cash on deposit. Probably because the cost of insuring deposits means they're struggling to make margins lending to customers/business/government. That's the opposite of impending hyper-inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) Quite an interesting chart from this guy that predicted a Short Squeeze on Equity Markets on 15th September, whence the DOW has gained 1000 points. Feels like it is still happening, the shorts had a good attempt this morning that halted at 6,400 on the FTSE and did look like it might be successful at one point. On the other hand they may just be playing with themselves and stop lossing their shorts as they fail to dislodge any longs. I guess the volume of bets shows how unstable things were, and may be still are, nevertheless on global markets. http://www.seeitmarket.com/are-stock-market-bears-at-risk-of-a-short-squeeze-14756/ We probably need some really bad news like VW to end this Short Squeeze and turn things around, no doubt that news is on the way some time very soon. Sub $48 Brent is doing its bit for the shorts too. Edited October 26, 2015 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 (edited) If Boehner's 2 year deal on the debt ceiling sticks then the US treasury will be back pounding the markets for cash quicker than you can say 'flash crash'. Get short or get out! http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/26/speaker-boehner-last-deal-2-year-budget-debt-ceiling/ Edited October 27, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 If Boehner's 2 year deal on the debt ceiling sticks then the US treasury will be back pounding the markets for cash quicker than you can say 'flash crash'. Get short or get out! http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/26/speaker-boehner-last-deal-2-year-budget-debt-ceiling/ I'd be very surprised if we don't get another dip soon. In the absence of more stimulus it feels like this leg of the Equity recovery has run its course. All eyes on the Fed today. Still optimistic for a year end rally that will take things back above where we are today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Think they will QE before the year is out in the US - overtly or covertly. What do you think? that will help. at what point does the US Zimbabwe exchange rate go 1 to 1 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Well I guess any interest rate move downwards makes the Equity yield look more attractive, be it with the risk of a capital loss. At one time you used to get a decent 3% return on bond and building societies over dividend yield to compensate for the lack of capital growth potential. now it seems we are stuck with the bizarre status of negative real bond returns and about 2% on building society fixes as compared to 4%ish return on Equity. Which is just one reason why this bull market has oodles to run yet. We havent even started the rate "tightening" cycle. Yield curve still very +ve & weve yet to see the blow off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 (edited) I'd be very surprised if we don't get another dip soon. In the absence of more stimulus it feels like this leg of the Equity recovery has run its course. All eyes on the Fed today. Still optimistic for a year end rally that will take things back above where we are today. Draghi and Corroder will be back with more QE & NIRP before the year's out, no doubt. Can't see that having much effect unless Draghi goes completely insane and prints $5 trillion equivalent or something. Who knows? But NIRP is contractionary and the Japanese govt is already running out of securities to swap. As I see it now, the Chinese burning through ~$200bn a month in dollar reserves to hold up the yuan is the fuse on the doomsday machine. At that rate they won't make it through 2016 before they have to pull the plug. All hell will break loose if/when they're forced to devalue again. Edited October 28, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Draghi and Corroder will be back with more QE & NIRP before the year's out, no doubt. Can't see that having much effect unless Draghi goes completely insane and prints $5 trillion or something. Who knows? But NIRP is contractionary and the Japanese govt is already running out of securities to swap. As I see it now, the Chinese burning through ~$200bn a month in dollar reserves to hold up the yuan is the fuse on the doomsday machine. At that rate they won't make it through 2016 before they have to pull the plug. All hell will break loose if/when they're forced to devalue again. I wont be getting nervous until youve given up on your DOOOOM narrative. Looks like a long way to go yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 I wont be getting nervous until youve given up on your DOOOOM narrative. Looks like a long way to go yet. And your liftoff narrative? Any day now, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.