TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 sounds like we have returned to normal in the housing market, if you believe my independent reading Tory friends from London and the south east! something doesn't feel quite right though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMac Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Personally I think so. I remember a topic a fair while ago (maybe 2010) about which phase of the bubble we were in. There was plenty of differing opinion but I thought that we were approaching return to normal then and close to entering the fear phase. With hindsight this was premature and what we're seeing today is a much stronger "return to normal" sentiment. We know that this is a recovery based on more debt, the house built on sand if you will, so one things is for sure: this is not a sustainable recovery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 (edited) something doesn't feel quite right though. Hmm, could that be The 0.5% BOE interest rate? The fall in real wages? Edited January 7, 2014 by Gone to Ireland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Everything's identical if your gaze is far enough out of focus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
underscored Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I am beginning to believe that nominal prices will never drop. Houses will just be owned by fewer people. The 20th century was an anomaly where political and therefore economic power was distributed further across society. The winners are using their gains to cement the positions of themselves and their families. The bigger fish will continue to eat the smaller fish until society resembles the shape it has held for the past 1000 years since the Normans invaded. Unless the old land based institutions, are dismantled and reformed and the English have a total culture change away from aspiring to be landed entry... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaMan Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 sounds like we have returned to normal in the housing market, if you believe my independent reading Tory friends from London and the south east! something doesn't feel quite right though. At the moment and for the last 16 years people saying house prices will only ever go up have been proved right. Ive a soon to be 4 year old daughter how much longer do the HPC mob like myself have to wait until prices become affordable .... Japan is the country who our govt seem to be copying with QE and then zero percent interest rates and property is still unaffordable for someone on an average wage all these years after their crash. I was brought up in the 70/80s to think a Labour government would be wonderful and that England is a decent society where hard work pays off. All complete lies from what i can see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 (edited) I think we are back to normal too. The conditions are set for further rises in house prices and I would be surprised if they did not rise at least 7% in 2014. I think prices are historically high, but they are going to be manipulated up further. (1) We are still about 10% nominally and 25% in real terms below 2007 levels. (2) ZIRP (3) HTB2 (4) GDP will charge ahead in 2014 probably about 3.5% (5) Unemployment will sink to 5.5% at least. (6) Favourable turning in the commodities super cycle with the US suddenly becoming self sufficient in just about every resource on the planet and depressing inflation. (7) Mass immigration to the UK as the fastest growing and most vibrant economy in Europe. (8) Debt at 1.4 trillion is precisely where we were in 2007. So the same level of debt that had house prices higher in 2007 (massively lower in real terms now) and 5% base rates then to boot. Edited January 7, 2014 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 I am beginning to believe that nominal prices will never drop. Houses will just be owned by fewer people. The 20th century was an anomaly where political and therefore economic power was distributed further across society. The winners are using their gains to cement the positions of themselves and their families. The bigger fish will continue to eat the smaller fish until society resembles the shape it has held for the past 1000 years since the Normans invaded. Unless the old land based institutions, are dismantled and reformed and the English have a total culture change away from aspiring to be landed entry... The trouble with letting the dog see the bone, the dog knows the bone is there and will stop at nothing to get it, including savaging it's master. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
underscored Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The trouble with letting the dog see the bone, the dog knows the bone is there and will stop at nothing to get it, including savaging it's master. I've seen the riot police at close quarters. The dog is going to have to get a bit hungrier and learn the politics of the collective (as taught in two world wars) before any bones are taken. It took centuries of to and fro for significant concessions to be gained. Many of them have been surrendered without a whimper over the last thirty years. The economy is shackled to the politics of power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 At the moment and for the last 16 years people saying house prices will only ever go up have been proved right. Ive a soon to be 4 year old daughter how much longer do the HPC mob like myself have to wait until prices become affordable .... Japan is the country who our govt seem to be copying with QE and then zero percent interest rates and property is still unaffordable for someone on an average wage all these years after their crash. I was brought up in the 70/80s to think a Labour government would be wonderful and that England is a decent society where hard work pays off. All complete lies from what i can see. Japan is the country who our govt seem to be copying with QE and then zero percent interest rates and property is still unaffordable for someone on an average wage all these years after their crash. Not the exact same model as Japan, Japan`s house prices fell for 20+ years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Yep, all is normal for the idiots who thought this crash would be over in 5 years. All we are seeing now is the last desperate props to hide the BUST that is continuing to get stronger...It could go either way, but BUST always wins...either an inflationary haulocaust that destroys the middle and lower classes or busted borrowers in a deflationary return to the norm. And neither of these have happened yet...but, we are visibly getting poorer much quicker....cant even raise a deposit on a flat these days, if anyone asks how this can be seen easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I am beginning to believe that nominal prices will never drop. Houses will just be owned by fewer people. The 20th century was an anomaly where political and therefore economic power was distributed further across society. The winners are using their gains to cement the positions of themselves and their families. The bigger fish will continue to eat the smaller fish until society resembles the shape it has held for the past 1000 years since the Normans invaded. Unless the old land based institutions, are dismantled and reformed and the English have a total culture change away from aspiring to be landed entry... This is spot on, without another war or disaster, we'll be back in the 19th century wealth distribution very soon, renting . We're the frogs,and we're being boiled slowly. It's going to take war and/or pestilence to change the flow, and within 30 years there's going to be a new dimension, robots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
underscored Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Yep, all is normal for the idiots who thought this crash would be over in 5 years. All we are seeing now is the last desperate props to hide the BUST that is continuing to get stronger...It could go either way, but BUST always wins...either an inflationary haulocaust that destroys the middle and lower classes or busted borrowers in a deflationary return to the norm. And neither of these have happened yet...but, we are visibly getting poorer much quicker....cant even raise a deposit on a flat these days, if anyone asks how this can be seen easily. Debt is a rule. The rules can be bent and ignored if you are powerful enough. Most of zombie banks should have been terminated in 2008 if the rules had been followed and foreclosures made. The banks were bailed out. This was a watershed moment, creditors and therefore debtors will be protected by the power of the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyHead Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 (edited) "return to normal".... now where have we heard that before? Edited January 7, 2014 by SleepyHead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Debt is a rule. The rules can be bent and ignored if you are powerful enough. Most of zombie banks should have been terminated in 2008 if the rules had been followed and foreclosures made. The banks were bailed out. This was a watershed moment, creditors and therefore debtors will be protected by the power of the state. Until they can't or until the banks decide otherwise. The current situation can't/wont go on forever. All pyramid scams collapse eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 sounds like we have returned to normal in the housing market, if you believe my independent reading Tory friends from London and the south east! something doesn't feel quite right though. I do not think that Central London can hold the values any more. Plus now there is the CGT for foreigners. I assume that the clever money are already selling up: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I can only hope the second wave finally brings home the rooster to roost. The foundations of this recovery are 99.99% debt based and you cant borrow forever.... Debt and consumption based.......you can borrow forever because you can never have 100% of people able to pay for themselves from their own individual life productive output...... there will never be a wholly balanced society.....some will need to take more than others, and the way society is going at the moment more will be requiring to take more than they can give into the future.....a fair few give and take, an equal equilibrium and a few more take as much as they can with an aim to take even more..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 (edited) "return to normal".... now where have we heard that before? Neither does the start of the 'return to normal' look like a 5 years period (2007-12) on the time axis nor does the drop look like 35% on the valuation axis. Therefore trying to fit the present rise in prices into a post boom sucker's rally doesn't work for me, the boom peaked out nearly seven years ago now. Edited January 7, 2014 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 I do not think that Central London can hold the values any more. Plus now there is the CGT for foreigners. I assume that the clever money are already selling up: I've been saying for 2 years now London is the key. Prices hit 2007 peak lives about 2 years ago now and have just kept climbing, this definitely emanates out from London to the surrounding areas ( including northants were I am ). I was surprised prices went up from there but with the government schemes and government owned banks lending out money they have freshly printed and foreigners who already have their 40% discount buying then I can see why. When London pops though, it will take down the whole market. All the top end prices around and about are held up with it, these have skewed the real level of the crash. FLS has been removed. HTB is no use in London and HTB2 is no deal. Can't see this charade lasting much longer. I said it would collapse by the end of 2013...might be the start of 2014. Locally I am seeing no end of top end houses coming on for 2007+++++ prices now and I look at them and think....who's going to buy them ( other than someone coming out of london having just sold a terrace house for £1M )....them that's been sat waiting for the recovery so they can sell up/retire/move are being told everything is back to normal.... I think they are in for a shock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirGaz Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 How bad would it be if 1999-2007 was the take off, 2008 was the first sell off and now we are heading into media attention! I would seriously look at leaving again if that was the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 We're at the start of media attention. Hold onto your hats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 How bad would it be if 1999-2007 was the take off, 2008 was the first sell off and now we are heading into media attention! I would seriously look at leaving again if that was the case. Great minds, eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 How bad would it be if 1999-2007 was the take off, 2008 was the first sell off and now we are heading into media attention! I would seriously look at leaving again if that was the case. The media never stopped their attention. When someone says to me..."you are so lucky not to own a house", or "why are you buying a house you could loose a fortune on it", like they did in 1996 I will know it's time to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 You'll know when it's time to buy: All they are doing at the moment is prolonging the time it will take to get to the bottom. I should have been around 2016-2018, it now looks to be 2020-2024 The collapse is inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 (edited) . Edited January 7, 2014 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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