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House Price Crash Forum


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About EMac

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  1. No but it's an ISA so is by definition tax free to access the money after you reach the required conditions such as being over 60 but yes, purchasing a property with it (provided you meet the conditions of a first time buyer) then selling up would essentially give you access to the funds early without penalty, I think that is within the rules though a bit cheeky.
  2. It's a similar story at the BoE. They see no bubble because they base affordability on the monthly payments rather than the astonishing headline prices.
  3. Also, even if, as most of us agree, the report is no good to man or beast as a prediction of future price moves what they also fail to grasp is that there is usually a swing from overvalued to undervalued in these kind of calculations. The trend doesn't just bounce above the "fair value" line as there is a balance to be had so even if the recent extremely overvalued peak to fair value fall were correct you would expect a similar dip into undervalued territory.
  4. If thier definition of "undervalued" was comparing to 9 years in the future then you would have a point but I'd argue that it's supposed to predict more short term than that and in the case of 2007 it's way out so thewig's point stands imo.
  5. Over 85k I'd agree but with everything there is risk, no asset is 100% safe and yes it's a good idea to diversify - hold some gold, have some amount of cash outside of banks. I have the mindset that if the banks go down without chance of compensation then there will be bigger problems to deal with like how to survive complete societal collapse. Cheery thought!
  6. They have done everything conceivable to achieve this short of actual confiscation. They have made saving almost pointless in this society. If they go further towards confiscation what do you think will happen? The bedrock of the economy is trust and confidence. If you shake these then the whole thing comes tumbling down. Saving is an essential part of a healthy economy (I'm talking about for your average person not rich oligarchs hoarding cash and assets with umpteen off-shore tax havens) and if you destroy this then the rest will follow.
  7. Not completely true - I'm sure everyone expected the base rate to stay the same
  8. That was the consensus here when all this htb was announced and I still think it stands. I can't see the market clinging on with its fingernails all the way until the election.
  9. I think it's gone too far now to be anything other than number 5. They have done everything possible to delay the correction, ultimately allowing massive mal-investment throughout the economy, not least in real estate. I just don't see how this can unwind in even a semi-controlled way. We're looking at a global event - how and when this will occur isn't clear but i believe when the elites are backed into a corner their answer is war. That's my cheery thought for the day
  10. Someone else tried to pay with these for their Tesco fuel and got nowhere initially (police called!) but Tesco have since relented and now say they will accept them. Make sure to take a copy of this article to show the uninformed cashier http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2594273/Tesco-staff-banned-customer-paying-bill-commemorative-20-coins-called-POLICE-didnt-cash.html Personally I'd rather keep mine - better than numbers in a bank account or bits of paper.
  11. http://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD Show the 2 year to see the graph perfectly match our favourite bubble life cycle diagram. The question is will it recover after this or has confidence been damaged too much? As for house prices, the pattern is very similar but on a much longer timeframe. I'm sure that we all hope it starts the downward phase soon.
  12. Borrow-to-let would be more accurate. But then I guess you'd have to re-phrases the term "homeowner" to mortgage-holder too
  13. Personally I think so. I remember a topic a fair while ago (maybe 2010) about which phase of the bubble we were in. There was plenty of differing opinion but I thought that we were approaching return to normal then and close to entering the fear phase. With hindsight this was premature and what we're seeing today is a much stronger "return to normal" sentiment. We know that this is a recovery based on more debt, the house built on sand if you will, so one things is for sure: this is not a sustainable recovery.
  14. Tulips? At least you had something pretty to look at after the collapse, once grown from the bulb of course.
  15. Just because it can go to that granularity doesn't mean it will. The 2 year chart is looking very much like our classic bubble and the increasing frenzy of joe public and now big investors is coming to a head. Buyer beware! By all means dip a toe in but not more than you can afford to lose. The inevitable crash will probably catch you out. Is Bitcoin really a credible currency when it's suffering massive deflation? Already I hear of online retailers suffering big drops in trade because people want to hang on while the value in $ goes up. This could all go horribly wrong very quickly.
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