FreeTrader Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The following chart is from the Bank of Canada's quarterly review (winter 2011/12): http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/boc-review-winter11-12-crawford.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Means nothing. They all sound hawkish. Then they get the job, and like the feel of printy printy. Quite. On the other hand reading A cautionary tale of inflation and growth, By Mark Carney suggests he isn't likely to abandon either the strategy of inflation targeting or even the target. Not, that is, unless he wants to be accused of abandoning "the most successful", "essential" policy of "worth" in favour of "extreme" and "misguided" policies. All of which means he might still go that route, central bankers being liars by virtue of their job description. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conrad Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Interesting graph Freetrader, UK, and USA deleveraging, Canda continue upward trejectory crackup boom! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 (edited) I imagine UK economists will also consider it quite an insult that none of them are thought upto scratch for the job but I'm sure they'll behave themselves as he regularly pontificates to them about the UK economy at places like the Mansion House and so on. Edited November 26, 2012 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punter Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 They should have appointed Paul Volker. The last central banker to do anything decent in terms of monetary policy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The following chart is from the Bank of Canada's quarterly review (winter 2011/12): http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/boc-review-winter11-12-crawford.pdf He's going to get out just in time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Another interpretation of that chart is that all three economies have reached the same point on it now perhaps allowing more coordination of policy. It's anybody's guess but it's remarkable on the chart how much higher the ratios are compared to the eu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
man o' the year Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 According to Wikipedia: He's Canadian, from the North West Territories apparently. Does that mean our economy is headed Due South? What's happening with Paul Tucker? Is he tarnished by the LIBOR scandal? Have they gone for a Canadian so when it all goes tits-up they can blame the outsider? I mean, has he been recruited as a sacrificial lamb, for Tucker to come in later after armageddon? Is it not that he has somewhere to run to when he becomes VERY unpopular. May be he will raise interest rates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 (edited) He worked on South Africa's post-apartheid venture into international bond markets, and was involved in Goldman's work with the 1998 Russian financial crisis.[4] Goldman's role in the Russian crisis was criticized at the time because while the company was advising Russia it was simultaneously betting against the country's ability to repay its debt.[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney ^on his wiki entry. Will history repeat? with the 2016 British financial crisis.[4] Goldman's role in the British crisis was criticized at the time because while the company was advising Britain it was simultaneously betting against the country's ability to repay its debt. I want to know this guys investments. Edited November 26, 2012 by MrTReturns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conrad Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Another interpretation of that chart is that all three economies have reached the same point on it now perhaps allowing more coordination of policy. It's anybody's guess but it's remarkable on the chart how much higher the ratios are compared to the eu. Indeed what about a stealth debt write off's. Screw the prudent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 He's going to get out just in time? Frying pan and fire, spring to mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomwatkins Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Congratulations Mr Tucker * Robert Peston @Peston New Governor of Bank of England to be announced at 3.30, speaker discloses * or not as the case may be "DEWEY BEATS TRUMAN" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomwatkins Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Why anyone with half a brain would leave Canada for this sh!thole....wait a minute. Says it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 He's going to get out just in time? Just what we need.. another Tony Blair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 (edited) He's going to get out just in time? Indeed. From that chart it looks like the Canadian economy has had a pretty well uninterrupted run of growing prosperity since the early 1980s - compared to the US and the UK which have had recessions during that time and in the case of the UK at least one really tough period (excluding the current recession(s). If Canada is going into a recession the Canadians won't be at all used to it so likely even more than usual they'll be looking to find someone to blame. Maybe he's thinking the UK's been so badly run and got so used to recessions him being at the economic helm won't be noticed. What's to do there - just announce it's still 0.5% base rate every month and then lean back until the announcement the following month. Easy street. Edited November 26, 2012 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TheBlueCat Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Carney warns about debt but never raises rates to try stop it. Not entirely true, he did put them up to 1% from 0.25% in 2010 - better than nothing I think. There's an added complication in Canada that maximum loan to value ratios and mortgage tenor are also somewhat regulated, so the base rate tells you a bit less about mortgage costs and availability than it would in the UK. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/07/09/bmo-mortgage-housing.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Seems quite sound on house prices to me: http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/24/carney-house-price-to-income-ratio-outstrips-norm-by-35/ BUT look at the comments: haselcheck • 7 months agoKeep voting as a special interest group and believe that the FAKE wealth effect from real estate will last forever...haha....The 30 year bubble continues.... Dgdangree88 • 7 months ago Mark Carney has a job to do and he probably is doing the best that can be expected. Western Central Bankers manipulate interest rates and currencies. With that said, Carney can Central Bank speak all he likes, but when people have nowhere to make money , investing in real estate is the best chance. He cannot wave the Flag and tell citizens not to give it a try. Much of what is going on in Toronto and now to a lesser degree in Vancouver is real estate speculation. Johnnytang2001 • 7 months ago He is a liar, hedge with his words only, make the bubble last as long as possible, and waiting for US market back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TheBlueCat Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Indeed. From that chart it looks like the Canadian economy has had a pretty well uninterrupted run of growing prosperity since the early 1980s - compared to the US and the UK which have had recessions during that time and in the case of the UK at least one really tough period (excluding the current recession(s). If Canada is going into a recession the Canadians won't be at all used to it so likely even more than usual they'll be looking to find someone to blame. Maybe he's thinking the UK's been so badly run and got so used to recessions me being at the economic helm won't be noticed. There was a recession in the early 90s tied to a government debt crisis: http://www.google.ca/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:CAN&dl=en&hl=en&q=canadian+gdp+graph People here seem to know what it's like from what I can see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It's like appointing a foreigner to manage the English team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not entirely true, he did put them up to 1% from 0.25% in 2010 - better than nothing I think. There's an added complication in Canada that maximum loan to value ratios and mortgage tenor are also somewhat regulated, so the base rate tells you a bit less about mortgage costs and availability than it would in the UK. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/07/09/bmo-mortgage-housing.html I really meant never raises rates "enough" to stop it. If rates were high "enough" would their household debt have risen to a new record last month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It's like appointing a foreigner to manage the English team. British jobs for British workers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 (edited) There was a recession in the early 90s tied to a government debt crisis: http://www.google.ca/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:CAN&dl=en&hl=en&q=canadian+gdp+graph People here seem to know what it's like from what I can see. Ok but I don't think the Canadian recession was quite as bad as say the UK's. http:// www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8046711/How-Japan-Canada-and-Sweden-coped-with-recession.html Canada What happened: The spending review after the early 1990s recession left no area of government sacrosanct from cuts. There was widespread public support for the programme, which avoided tax rises. The effect on consumers: Canadian consumption withstood the severe fiscal tightening in the mid-1990s, with growth averaging almost 3pc. However, the Bank of Canada was also cutting rates aggressively, an option not available to the Bank of England, said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec Securities. The legacy: The huge cuts were rewarded by rapid rebounds in growth but Paul Martin, former finance minister, has argued: “The issue is not whether you cut spending but whether you cut the deficit – in some cases that will mean doing the opposite with spending.” The austerity mindset remains. Despite Canada escaping the deep recession faced by many other countries, consumers have been showing similar budgeting behaviour to that in the UK, according to Datamonitor. Edited November 26, 2012 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The big take over continues i see...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This is all you need to know about this appointment: Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower @faisalislam I think the appointment of Mark Carney is a master stroke - I suspect many at BOE nervous of their futures which is good sign Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Loblaw Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The big take over continues i see...... It is just a big coincidence surely .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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