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Christmas A Turning Point?

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I am wondering if Christmas could be a bit of a turning point for UK plc. It seems to me that with huge personal debt, high street sales this Christmas are going to be horrendous; and with high street sales down already we could see some serious problems. You can already see evidence of this in the Boots merger.

Of course, many will likely over spend on credit cards further increasing debt, and then likely stop spending anything in January/Feb.

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year we see interest rates up 1/4% and horrendous high street performance. This is not going to look good - and house prices are all about expectations. Once people think UK plc is doing badly, house prices will rapidly fall.

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I've been thinking much the same thing myself. Last Christmas was peculiarly quiet, this one could be horrific for the retailers (and everyone else through knock-on effects).

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not convinced about interest rates rising at all, despite the pressures. christmas last year was noticeably quiet in the city centre and out of town palaces. maybe the consumer will catch up lost ground this year and start spending 'cos they didn't last year. funny animals, consumers. i agree, it could be a turning point, but for the wrong reasons.

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I think we will have one more 'minor' credit bindge. The results of Xmas will come out in the early part of next year and it will be dire, unemployment will rise much further. House prices expectations will still hold, because every EA will be spouting about SIPPS blah blah blah... Sping bounce blah blah blah...

By the summer it will be obvious SIPPS had very little impact on House purchases, and the Spring Bounce didn't exsist (like this year). The economy will be in much worse state with very little economic growth (maybe negative?). The major drop in prices will then occur for another 2 years...

Just my thoughts...

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I read on a internal memo that Asda colleagues (myself being one of them) won't get to enjoy the annual "Double Discount Day" where alcohol, clothing, DVD,s CD,s and computer games etc (basically everything except food and electrical goods) are all 20% off for Asda workers. The reason given was "to protect our proffits".

The reason for this are two fold, one is the slow Wal-Martinisation of Asda where perks and bonuses are slowly taken away and two they are expecting a much much slower Christmas than in recent years.

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I think christmas will be very similar to last christmas, nothing spectacular, spring will bring small rises/levelling in house prices before they start a heady decent in the summer..

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Guest muttley

You can already see evidence of this in the Boots merger.

Boots are cr@p.It's got nothing to do with the economy.

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One major factor for the quietness is the huge number of people shopping online. Why bother with the hightreets stores when websites like dealtime.co.uk & kelkoo.co.uk for example can help you find the cheapest price for the products you want to look for. When you factor in time, car parking costs et al the highstreet suddenly looks very expensive.

Plus some of the biggest named highstreet stores sell models which are exclusive to them, so their promise that you cant buy the same model cheaper any where else is just hot air!

The bottom line is the UK shopper is wising up to the tricks of the highstreet and nobody likes to feel they are getting ripped off!

Good point, just bought a cd from TESCO Jersey @ £8.95. Virgin price on Oxford street..£16.00

The high street is a rip off! in harder times people are looking for value.

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Good point, just bought a cd from TESCO Jersey @ £8.95. Virgin price on Oxford street..£16.00

The high street is a rip off! in harder times people are looking for value.

I use the comparison sister sites of

www.find-cd.co.uk

www.find-dvd.co.uk

www.find-games.co.uk

a lot to find the cheaper deal. As anecdotal evidence from running a small ebay business, last Feb was appalling (although trade from Feb-april is traditionally slow) I'm considering going on holiday this coming Feb. instead of trading.

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I'm not sure that the premise is correct, e.g. "turning point". I think that was in July 2004.

However the financial burden that Christmas can be is not likely to have a positive effect on those who have been trying to sell their homes for one to two years since the market dies away even further over that period from an already quiet time.

The Spring bounce fell flat, as did the summer one. If the market wouldn't perform for people during traditionally or anticipated busy times, I don't see this coming Winter being a great improvement particularly since the noises in the economy have worsened since then.

Let's see how retail fares over Christmas.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
One major factor for the quietness is the huge number of people shopping online. Why bother with the hightreets stores when websites like dealtime.co.uk & kelkoo.co.uk for example can help you find the cheapest price for the products you want to look for. When you factor in time, car parking costs et al the highstreet suddenly looks very expensive.

I bought a DVD from WHSmiths the other week and while I was paying for it, I tried to remember the last time I had actually bought a DVD in a shop (rather than online).

I couldn't for the life of me remember when it was. Could be over a year, maybe more. Buying online can score on cheapness, convinience and also choice (even the biggest shops only offer a limited range on certain items).

Can also highly recommend www.find-dvd.co.uk, the price variations can be amazing.

The high street won't be seeing much of me this Christmas.

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I first noticed the turn in Australia around March this year which would correspond to consumers running up lots of debt over Christmas and then the bills fall due. A few weeks after that when the reality has sunk in plus with back to school costs etc. there seemed to be quite a change. That was the point where I thought "this is for real".

So I'll be watching very closely what happens in March next year...

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I think the BoE will irresponsibly have one more cut this year to further the "Spend it like Beckham" or "Spend it like Britain" culture we are growing.

Lets face it with what people presently owe whats another few grand on the plastic gonna do? Most are already screwed.

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I bought a DVD from WHSmiths the other week and while I was paying for it, I tried to remember the last time I had actually bought a DVD in a shop (rather than online).

I couldn't for the life of me remember when it was. Could be over a year, maybe more. Buying online can score on cheapness, convinience and also choice (even the biggest shops only offer a limited range on certain items).

Can also highly recommend www.find-dvd.co.uk, the price variations can be amazing.

The high street won't be seeing much of me this Christmas.

P&P is creeping up all the time. Most much stuff on ebay, for instance, is not worth buying because of this.

Increasing transport costs are going to prove a real headache for modern transport hungry enterprise such as supermarkets and e-commerce.

A lorry load delivered to a local store is going to be cheaper than individually parcelled items shipped all over the country. And the implications for food miles are horendous.

The (local) high street will fight back one day, and probably not in the too distant future.

I already go on my bike to buy local fruit and veg. It's much better and FAR cheaper than ASDA et al.

e-commerce will decline first, I even suspect it is already on borrowed time.

Next time you are in the supermarket take a look at all the books, cds, dvds and games they stock. Since you are already there it often works out cheaper to buy from the store rather than online. Don't forget to add the P&P for online.

ADDED In the meantime, I agree with you. I think for many items you'd need your head examined to go to a place like WHSmith when online and local supermarket are about half their prices :)

Edited by Card

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Guest Riser

I'm not sure that the premise is correct, e.g. "turning point". I think that was in July 2004.

However the financial burden that Christmas can be is not likely to have a positive effect on those who have been trying to sell their homes for one to two years since the market dies away even further over that period from an already quiet time.

The Spring bounce fell flat, as did the summer one. If the market wouldn't perform for people during traditionally or anticipated busy times, I don't see this coming Winter being a great improvement particularly since the noises in the economy have worsened since then.

Let's see how retail fares over Christmas.

I agree that last June-July was the turning point, I remember a comment from a neighbour who knows a great deal about the markets and property, back then he said in a sinister way "something has changed !".

I have been surprised by how easily some HPC posters have been taken in by the Halifax spin, did you really think the VI would lay down and accept the crash, they will keep on spouting their garbage right the way to the bottom of the market. Its possible to fiddle one or two months but the trend is clear:

Nationwide HPI Negative - SELL signal for housing

Edited by Riser

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I use the comparison sister sites of

www.find-cd.co.uk

www.find-dvd.co.uk

www.find-games.co.uk

a lot to find the cheaper deal. As anecdotal evidence from running a small ebay business, last Feb was appalling (although trade from Feb-april is traditionally slow) I'm considering going on holiday this coming Feb. instead of trading.

I run these sites! No honest I do ... hope you find them useful. The DVD site runs on a mobile phone if its WAP enabled so you can also check DVD prices when you are out shopping.

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There's more reasons for shopping online than price. It's mostly women who do the shopping (lots do their hubbies xmas shopping for them!) and the thought of traipsing round the shops with kids in tow is not a nice one. Shopping on the net when they're in bed is much pleasanter.

Also you can get what you want on line. I can't get my klezmer CDs and craft stuff in my local highstreet; I can on the net. More and more I buy on the net, and things I can't easily buy on the net - kids' clothes, toilettries (sp?) etc - I get in Asda or Tescos because I can pop out when the kids are asleep.

I keep wondering how much of this high street downturn is really due to less spending and how much due to their customers going elsewhere.

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Personally I think Christmas spending will be similar to last year. Another splurge on credit as it's ingrained into the british psychy to buy as much food, booze and utterly useless tat at this time of year as it is to own their own houses.

Next year will be an interesting one. Watching carefully, but think we may see a strong slide in terms of house prices and spending in general. I suspect it's not going to be pretty December 2006.

Edited by FreeFall

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I run these sites! No honest I do ... hope you find them useful. The DVD site runs on a mobile phone if its WAP enabled so you can also check DVD prices when you are out shopping.

Congratulations Jon, I think www.find-cd.co.uk www.find-dvd.co.uk and www.find-games.co.uk are excellent.

I just wished more people knew about your sites as dvd/cds/ games are very overpriced generally.

People seem to pay silly money for some dvds particularly on ebay, whereas they are often cheaper new using your websites. Most prices are cheaper that sale prices in HMV /Virgin 90% of timer I look.

Many of the dvds I buy are obscure region 1' from USA suppliers, so your region 1 dvd option is useful.

I opened an ebay shop a while back & found myself top of google with no other effort. Had you thought of opening an ebay shop with a relevant user name/ shop name for £6 a month as a very cheap form of advertising to target the ignorant ebayers?

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I run these sites! No honest I do ... hope you find them useful. The DVD site runs on a mobile phone if its WAP enabled so you can also check DVD prices when you are out shopping

ahh, so its you i need to speak to about removing all the many irritating pop ups you put into my internet browser for debt consolidation loans ?

i only went to your site after a google search on how to remove pop ups.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I think this Christmas the news will be full of poor sales, There will be talk of people waiting to buy in the January sales but, methinks, it won't happen.

I thought that happened last December and January, it was often discussed on this board last November.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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