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House Price Crash Forum


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About Smurf1976

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    Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  1. The BBC may have said it, but those with real knowledge certainly weren't. The message has been consistent for quite some time now. Discovery is going down and is below the rate of (rising) production. And no amount of increased drilling was able to arrest the decline in the US or other regions that have already peaked. Most models have long put the date of peak at sometime around the year 2000. In the context of the overall history of civilisation, 20 years either side of that will have been a fairly decent prediction. Peak for conventional oil is 2005 thus far...
  2. Even if this was immediately developed with the best technology and pumped at maximum rate, it would add no more than 3 million barrels per day to world production. And that's the absolute best case. Let's see... 85 million barrels per day demand rising at around 2 mmbpd per year. This buys us 18 months at the absolute most. And the field wouldn't possibly maintain that production rate for more than a few years at most before deline set in. Rather than delaying peak oil, the reality that it has taken so long to find this and that 18 billion barrels does so little to help is confirmation of just how serious the situation is. We don't need another 18 billion barrels that takes years to find and even longer to develop. We need an entire new Saudi Arabia, Russia or USA oil industry in less than that time if supply is going to keep up. As for the rate of drilling, it's outright nonsense to say it's down. Practically every rig in the world is running flat out and the cost of hiring one has gone through the roof. That they aren't finding much is the very situation that has many concerned about oil.
  3. IMO a stock market correction is what they're waiting for in order to justify the next round of inflation. Credit markets, housing (US) and stocks. Needs all 3 to be hit and then it's inflate, inflate and inflate some more IMO.
  4. If you want to reduce flooding downstream in a river system then under normal circumstances the only option you have is to hold back the water upstream. There are plenty of examples of land areas protected and actual floods avoided by the use of this principle. Amongst others, Brisbane (Oz) has a very large dam upstream on the Brisbane River which is never filled to more than 50% full. Why? So they can use the other 50% of its capacity to hold flood water back should the need arise and then release it slowly over a few days or weeks, thus avoiding flooding of the city downstream. Plenty of other places do much the same and the principle works just as well in London as anywhere else.
  5. Simply because at $1 the supply doesn't match demand. Not enough oil can be produced at that price to supply the massive consumption that would occur at that price. Oil is roughly 40% of world energy. It would be damn close to 100% at $1 a barrel and odds are total energy use would be at least double what it is today. So 400 million barrels per day instead of 85 million - you won't find that at $1. So, in short, the present price is just the point where supply and demand balance in terms of physical quantity (ignoring the impact of speculation). Same with most other things.
  6. It's not just in the UK. Much the same in Australia and no doubt elsewhere too. Where I live (Hobart, Oz) we had a pretty major battle to maintain any sort of late night activity at all. 18 months ago it looked pretty certain that nightclubs in particular would completely cease to exist here. Thankfully a bit more sense has prevailed since then and the overall capcity has increased from it's bottom. The ultimate cause of all this fuss? Someone built a group of thin walled shoe boxes on commercially zoned land literally directly opposite the entry to the largest club in the city, which had operated as a hotel or club for decades. Then they complained about noise, drunks etc. That club is still empty to this day apart from the still operating bottle shop out the back. The great tragedy of the whole property saga is that it threatens to get rid of pretty much everything that isn't a flat or house. A situation which somewhat defeats the purpose of, well, living... In Sydney they nearly closed Luna Park due to whinging from the residents of newly built housing nearby. Hmm... Luna Park is right by the water on Sydney Harbour so that housing isn't going to be cheap. And the park's been there for decades. Better get rid of it, stop the kids having fun etc in honour of the allmighty flat building gods. :angry:
  7. Neither of them are real alternatives though. LPG - Liquified PETROLEUM Gas. The clue's in the middle word there - petroleum. As for biodiesel, sure it works but where to get enough feedstock from? The annual food requirements of a human is enough to fill a car's tank - once. Given that most people buy fuel more than once a year, we're talking about a truly massive expansion in agriculture to the point where human food ends up being a trivial sideline to fuel. Where would we plant it all?
  8. A major hotel near me (in Oz) was selling most (all?) of their rooms this way a year or so ago. They had a truly massive marketing campaign especially on radio - the ads went on for months. 1. They were pretty keen to sell given their advertising effort. 2. Obviously no major investor wanted to buy the whole lot - had to sell to the public. 1 + 2 = Smart money and hotel management doesn't want to own hotel rooms. Hmm...
  9. Is that term not in common use in the UK? Along with "all gas" it's not an unheard of term in Oz. Basically means electric cooking, heating and hot water. So no wood/coal fire, oil or gas in this house. I'm a bit surprised at the "all electric" bit attracting attention. It's pretty normal to state the type of heating (ie electric, heat pump, gas, oil, wood) installed in the colder states of Oz so I assumed it was the same elsewhere. Apparently not...
  10. Had that April Fools joke here about 20 years ago when a local radio announcer did it. It even came to the point of someone building a working 10 hour clock and presenting it to him a few days later.
  11. For the central banks and governments - Oops! I Did It Again (Britney Spears) For the BTL mob - Livin' On A Prayer (Bon Jovi) After the crash - Dry County (Bon Jovi) "...now the oil's gone, and the money's gone, all the jobs are gone..." For all the Iraq / war threds on HPC - Gods of War (Def Leppard) - chilling words that show we've learned nothing since the 1980's when this was recorded. For those who can't pay the mortgage - Get Out Of The House (Boom Crash Opera)
  12. Another sign of peak oil/gas and the reality that few countries will actually reduce CO2 emissions no matter what they say or sign.
  13. I don't recall seeing any debate, especially not a political one (which climate change is) where either side told the absolute truth. The truth always turns out to be somewhere between the two extremes. So odds are climate change is real but it's not as serious, at least not the man-made component, as many claim. In that case we need to do something about it but not to the point of shutting down industry and literally turning out the lights untill we have alternative power sources available. It would be sensible to just cut outright waste (like office buldings lit up all night for no reason) and progress developing the alternatives at a gradual pace that doesn't wreck the economy in the process. The next few years should be interesting. Australia is having a very serious drought at the moment which has all but emptied many key water storages. The Snowy Mountains scheme (irrigation and hydro-electricity) is down to less than 10%. Brisbane's water supply is down to 20% full and serious water restrictions are in force. Likewise practically every other water storage supplying the major cities, agriculture or hydro-electricity is low. It's to the point where even filling buckets is limited to two days per week, and then only at certain times, in some parts of the country. And we're being told that the drought is most certainly due to climate change. No iffs or buts, it MUST be climate change that has caused it. Never mind the well understood El Nino phenomenon that historially brings serious drought to Australia and that a lack of new dams and over allocation of irrigation water (the total take from the Murray river being well over 100% of its total flow - of course the dams were going to be drained at some point) has compunded the water supply problem compared with previous droughts. Now, if it starts raining normally in the next few years then it's egg on the faces of the "it's certainly climate change" people BIG TIME and they'll lose a lot of credibility. Never mind the science (which would never support such "certain" claims), they've put it all on the line to try and force prompt reductions in CO2 emissions. If it goes wrong, if the drought breaks, then they're arguement goes down the river along with the water. If it doesn't rain now that the El Nino has ended, then we'll probably see some serious action on climate change in Australia due to the politics of it all. It's make or break time for climate change here.
  14. I live in a place where children at the age of 10 were found to have significant lung damage thought to be caused by breathing polluted air. That pollution came not from industry but from household wood burning heaters (the slow combustion kind) which choof out the tar and other nasties 24/7. Why were we burning wood when everyone knew that air quality standards were being massively breached at 3 times the "safe" level? Because the greens stopped the building of a hydro-electric dam, power from which was intended largely for domestic heating after oil became too expensive in the 1970's. The greens wanted wood instead and they got their way. Enough said there... Thankfully, most have gone electric for heating in the past few years once the utility found a way to increase supply. Unfortunately it's coal and gas they're using to do it but it beats breathing smog 2 days in 3. Greens seem more concerned about stopping any kind of development than about genuine sustainability (let's face it, hydro-electricity is sustainable in ongoing operation even if it does alter the environment during construction). And they the went on to promote tourism (which necessarily means aviation in this case) as an economic alternative to heavy industry using more electricity. Needless to say I'm more than suspicious as to the real motives for climate change being such a high profile issue. I very much doubt it's any real concern for sustainability. More likely it's the only way they can think of to get nuclear plants built and justify restrictions on car use. Never admit the truth about peak oil and gas and the West losing control of remaining reserves...
  15. Get the energy saving globes marked "warm white" or "3000K" if you want light output similar to an ordinary bulb. "White" or "4000K" is the bright white office type fluorescent light. Good for your study etc but not for the lounge or dining room. "Daylight" or "6000K" is the cold bluish lighting used in some commercial premises etc. You generally wouldn't want these at home although they are very commonly sold for household use. They are good for use in workshops etc however. Ordinary fluorescent tubes also come in these different types. Get the right ones and you'll find the light output more acceptable. There are also 3500K, 5000K and various others which sit between the above types in terms of the light they produce. You can get 10,000K for acquarium use for example.
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