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House Price Crash Forum


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About Smurf1976

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    Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  1. The BBC may have said it, but those with real knowledge certainly weren't. The message has been consistent for quite some time now. Discovery is going down and is below the rate of (rising) production. And no amount of increased drilling was able to arrest the decline in the US or other regions that have already peaked. Most models have long put the date of peak at sometime around the year 2000. In the context of the overall history of civilisation, 20 years either side of that will have been a fairly decent prediction. Peak for conventional oil is 2005 thus far...
  2. Even if this was immediately developed with the best technology and pumped at maximum rate, it would add no more than 3 million barrels per day to world production. And that's the absolute best case. Let's see... 85 million barrels per day demand rising at around 2 mmbpd per year. This buys us 18 months at the absolute most. And the field wouldn't possibly maintain that production rate for more than a few years at most before deline set in. Rather than delaying peak oil, the reality that it has taken so long to find this and that 18 billion barrels does so little to help is confirmation of j
  3. IMO a stock market correction is what they're waiting for in order to justify the next round of inflation. Credit markets, housing (US) and stocks. Needs all 3 to be hit and then it's inflate, inflate and inflate some more IMO.
  4. If you want to reduce flooding downstream in a river system then under normal circumstances the only option you have is to hold back the water upstream. There are plenty of examples of land areas protected and actual floods avoided by the use of this principle. Amongst others, Brisbane (Oz) has a very large dam upstream on the Brisbane River which is never filled to more than 50% full. Why? So they can use the other 50% of its capacity to hold flood water back should the need arise and then release it slowly over a few days or weeks, thus avoiding flooding of the city downstream. Plenty of ot
  5. Simply because at $1 the supply doesn't match demand. Not enough oil can be produced at that price to supply the massive consumption that would occur at that price. Oil is roughly 40% of world energy. It would be damn close to 100% at $1 a barrel and odds are total energy use would be at least double what it is today. So 400 million barrels per day instead of 85 million - you won't find that at $1. So, in short, the present price is just the point where supply and demand balance in terms of physical quantity (ignoring the impact of speculation). Same with most other things.
  6. It's not just in the UK. Much the same in Australia and no doubt elsewhere too. Where I live (Hobart, Oz) we had a pretty major battle to maintain any sort of late night activity at all. 18 months ago it looked pretty certain that nightclubs in particular would completely cease to exist here. Thankfully a bit more sense has prevailed since then and the overall capcity has increased from it's bottom. The ultimate cause of all this fuss? Someone built a group of thin walled shoe boxes on commercially zoned land literally directly opposite the entry to the largest club in the city, which had op
  7. Neither of them are real alternatives though. LPG - Liquified PETROLEUM Gas. The clue's in the middle word there - petroleum. As for biodiesel, sure it works but where to get enough feedstock from? The annual food requirements of a human is enough to fill a car's tank - once. Given that most people buy fuel more than once a year, we're talking about a truly massive expansion in agriculture to the point where human food ends up being a trivial sideline to fuel. Where would we plant it all?
  8. A major hotel near me (in Oz) was selling most (all?) of their rooms this way a year or so ago. They had a truly massive marketing campaign especially on radio - the ads went on for months. 1. They were pretty keen to sell given their advertising effort. 2. Obviously no major investor wanted to buy the whole lot - had to sell to the public. 1 + 2 = Smart money and hotel management doesn't want to own hotel rooms. Hmm...
  9. Is that term not in common use in the UK? Along with "all gas" it's not an unheard of term in Oz. Basically means electric cooking, heating and hot water. So no wood/coal fire, oil or gas in this house. I'm a bit surprised at the "all electric" bit attracting attention. It's pretty normal to state the type of heating (ie electric, heat pump, gas, oil, wood) installed in the colder states of Oz so I assumed it was the same elsewhere. Apparently not...
  10. Had that April Fools joke here about 20 years ago when a local radio announcer did it. It even came to the point of someone building a working 10 hour clock and presenting it to him a few days later.
  11. For the central banks and governments - Oops! I Did It Again (Britney Spears) For the BTL mob - Livin' On A Prayer (Bon Jovi) After the crash - Dry County (Bon Jovi) "...now the oil's gone, and the money's gone, all the jobs are gone..." For all the Iraq / war threds on HPC - Gods of War (Def Leppard) - chilling words that show we've learned nothing since the 1980's when this was recorded. For those who can't pay the mortgage - Get Out Of The House (Boom Crash Opera)
  12. Another sign of peak oil/gas and the reality that few countries will actually reduce CO2 emissions no matter what they say or sign.
  13. I don't recall seeing any debate, especially not a political one (which climate change is) where either side told the absolute truth. The truth always turns out to be somewhere between the two extremes. So odds are climate change is real but it's not as serious, at least not the man-made component, as many claim. In that case we need to do something about it but not to the point of shutting down industry and literally turning out the lights untill we have alternative power sources available. It would be sensible to just cut outright waste (like office buldings lit up all night for no reason)
  14. I live in a place where children at the age of 10 were found to have significant lung damage thought to be caused by breathing polluted air. That pollution came not from industry but from household wood burning heaters (the slow combustion kind) which choof out the tar and other nasties 24/7. Why were we burning wood when everyone knew that air quality standards were being massively breached at 3 times the "safe" level? Because the greens stopped the building of a hydro-electric dam, power from which was intended largely for domestic heating after oil became too expensive in the 1970's. The
  15. Get the energy saving globes marked "warm white" or "3000K" if you want light output similar to an ordinary bulb. "White" or "4000K" is the bright white office type fluorescent light. Good for your study etc but not for the lounge or dining room. "Daylight" or "6000K" is the cold bluish lighting used in some commercial premises etc. You generally wouldn't want these at home although they are very commonly sold for household use. They are good for use in workshops etc however. Ordinary fluorescent tubes also come in these different types. Get the right ones and you'll find the light output m
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