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House Price Crash Forum


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About benjamin

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  1. Link to the BBA January announcement (yes I know it's a month outa date) - nice graph - wonder what Feb's graph will look like!! http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=149&a=12452
  2. Had a quick look - not seen it posted yet. http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/0320.html "I’m going to let you in on an unfortunate little secret – the real subprime mortgage securitization crisis may not have even started yet. But, there is a good chance the real crisis will arrive soon." "The heart of the subprime problem is that no major stress tests happened in 2007 – and the market still blew up."
  3. would i be right to suggest that northern rock is now the safest place for money on deposit as the govt. are guaranteeing the whole lot, not just £35K. i have some cash looking for a home and am thinking of putting it there - thoughts please?
  4. down south this time http://www.thisisbath.co.uk/displayNode.js...;pNodeId=163047 "However, estate agents say the Bank of England will need to cut interest rates again to stimulate greater interest." Clearly the BOE will be wanting to stimulate greater interest for sellers in the Barth area. clueless
  5. http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/House-prices...ENTH.3873874.jp Today John Francis, principal of Crapper and Haigh estate agents in Sheffield city centre, admitted: "The state of the market is terrible."
  6. http://www.communities.gov.uk/news/corporate/716440
  7. http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsU...13?rpc=401& Feb 13 (Reuters) - Expectations of the size of the fall in UK house prices have lessened but the market could take longer to recover, property derivative prices showed on Wednesday. Property derivative brokers said the benchmark Halifax house price index was seen falling by 8 percent in the next 12 months, which was less-than-expected last month, but which masks deeper expected discounts in 2009 and 2010. "This seems to point to a more drawn out fall in the housing market rather than a short sharp shock and then recovery," said Philip Ingman, managing director of Strutt & Parker Real Estate Financial Services, in an email. Halifax, which is owned by Britain's biggest mortgage lender HBOS Plc (HBOS.L: Quote, Profile, Research), said UK house prices were flat in January. Its house price index is nonetheless 1.2 percent, down from its peak in August, after a decade-old bull market ran out of steam. Following are expected annualised percentage returns for the UK housing market based on Halifax house price index (HPI) derivatives. The table is based on indicative HPI swap mid-price data provided by interbank brokers Tradition Property, CB Richard Ellis-GFI, and Tullet Prebon and is made up of simple averages. Some of the historical data was provided by Strutt & Parker Real Estate Financial Services. Date 1yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 20yr 14/02/08 -8.2 -5.7 -1.8 0.5 2.3 08/01/08 -9.0 -4.9 -1.7 0.4 2.6 18/12/07 -9.0 -4.8 -1.7 0.4 2.7 5/12/07 -9.7 -5.1 -1.4 0.5 2.7 29/11/07 -7.0 -3.8 -1.2 0.6 2.7 06/11/07 -2.5 -1.3 -0.9 0.8 2.8 20/9/07 -2.5 -1.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1/9/07 -1.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 2.6 1/8/07 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.8 1/1/07 4.3 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.7 (See www.reutersrealestate.com for the global service for real estate professionals from Reuters) (Reporting by William Kemble-Diaz and Christina Fincher, Editing by Richard Hubbard)
  8. don't think posted here just yet.. http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1302896,00.html Banking Giant Reveals Sub-Prime Hit Updated:11:19, Tuesday January 29, 2008 Alliance & Leicester has tried to reassure investors worried about its liquidity in the wake of the Northern Rock crisis. The bank says it has strengthened its funding position to the end of the year, despite a greater-than-expected £185m hit due to the credit crunch. Losses from investments knocked by the credit squeeze and those linked to US sub-prime mortgages is more than three times the £55m it estimated last November. The group added that chief executive David Bennett was taking a temporary leave of absence due to illness, to be replaced in the interim by group finance director Chris Rhodes. Alliance shares were up 2%. Core operating profits for 2007 - which exclude the losses - are still in line with market forecasts of more than £598m. Advertisement Its funding news will provide some relief to investors anxious that A&L would see its liquidity dry up after credit markets were thrown into turmoil last summer. A&L sought to reassure that it was continuing to reduce its reliance on short-term wholesale money market funding, with 56% of customer loans and advances funded by saving deposits. The group has around £23.4bn in retail deposits and £8bn in deposits from commercial customers. Mr Rhodes stressed that the group's retail and commercial bank businesses "continue to perform well". He has taken over as acting chief executive from David Bennett, who is ill and not expected to return in the short term. A&L has had a volatile past six months on the stock market, with shares under pressure due to concerns over funding.
  9. but but record mortgage lending from the beeb! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7199777.stm
  10. i see the word 'unexpectedly' is used yet again. it's as if they believed their own pre-christmas guff.
  11. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7167629.stm Growth in UK manufacturing slows Growth in the UK manufacturing sector eased in December, as worries about the credit crunch led to new orders hitting a near two-year low, a survey shows. The data is likely to boost hopes of another interest rate cut to cushion against an economic slowdown this year. Firms reported that recent turmoil in financial markets had shaken client confidence, said the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. New manufacturing orders fell to their lowest level since March 2006. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/NTC said its purchasing managers' index fell to 52.9 in December, below the 53.6 that analysts forecast and down from the 54.3 recorded in November. But it remained above the 50.0 mark separating growth from contraction for the 29th successive month. New orders fall "Client confidence is still being affected by tight credit market conditions and high cost inflation, leading many to postpone non-essential expenditures," said NTC economist Rob Dobson. The new orders index fell sharply to 51.7, its lowest since March 2006, from 55.0 in November. The survey also indicated that the inflationary pressures facing the sector are easing although prices remain high. Companies have paid higher prices for food products, fuel, metals, paper products, plastics and oil over recent months. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee cut interest rates to 5.5% from 5.75% last month and many economists expect the central bank to lower the cost of borrowing further in coming months. "That price pressures appear to be easing as activity slows will allow the MPC to respond to the weaker economic climate by cutting rates," said Paul Dales, at Capital Economics.
  12. http://www.order-order.com/2007/12/gordons...9591442-on.html
  13. whining about immigration into the uk - didn't he 'immigrate' into the US?
  14. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7117106.stm London house prices dropped at their fastest rate in more than two years last month, according to the latest figures from the Land Registry. Prices were down by 0.6% in October, the first monthly decline in the capital since April 2006 and the sharpest drop since August 2005. Rises in most other regions meant prices climbed by 0.1% across England and Wales as a whole. But analysts fear weakening prices in London could threaten the wider market. Slowdown Prices in London could be markedly hit by City job losses and reduced bonuses Howard Archer, Global Insight The Land Registry said it is the first time in ten months that the London market has been outperformed by England and Wales as a whole. Despite the fall, the capital continues to have the strongest rate of annual price inflation of any region at 14.7%, but that is down sharply from an annual rate of 16.5% recorded in September. The average property price in London is now £351,039, down from £354,272 in September. Across England and Wales annual price inflation now stands at 8.1%, the lowest figure since last December. It puts the cost of an average house at £184,346. A number of recent surveys - including those from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) and property group Rightmove - have shown London to be the only region showing consistently strong price growth. Outlook But the Land Registry data suggests the capital's property boom may be at an end, as higher interest rates and affordability constraints start to bite. House price developments in the capital often act as a lead indicator for the wider market Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics Earlier this week, the property website Hometrack said interest from new buyers in London had fallen by a third since July. Chief UK economist at Global Insight, Howard Archer, predicted the situation in London could worsen. "House prices in London could be markedly hit by City job losses and reduced bonuses, particularly if the credit crunch and financial market turmoil proves extended, which seems increasingly likely," he said. He argued this could contribute to a significant fall in annual price inflation more generally. But Ed Stansfield, property economist at consultancy Capital Economics, was more cautious. "The fall in London house prices reported in October did not even reverse the previous month's rise, and could yet turn out to be simply noise rather than a new trend," he said. "Even so, it will doubtless fuel concerns over the housing market outlook, since house price developments in the capital often act as a lead indicator for the wider market."
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