Technology Supeycle Has 15 Years Left To Run?

[Bear Goggles]

While I agree the internet has been one of the biggest technological innovations in my lifetime I dont really think the IT industry can take too much credit for its success as so many of its key players such as Microsoft resisted it fiercely when it emerged as a force. Indeed, much of the impetus for its development came from outside the established companies.Moreover much of the internet content is not innovative at all - a written article is still a page of text, a film is still a movie, and a purchase order is still just an accounting record. The fact that the item is delivered electronically should not disguise the fact that it is still the traditional product in a fancy wrapper. I suppose that if you accept Marshall McLuhan's dictum that "The medium is the message" then the fact all the forms of information are joined in new ways is in itself significant but I would not get too carried away with that idea. With regard to concepts such as the Cloud this is just a rerun of the hoary old argument about whether data is better handled locally or in a centralised location (ie yet another reun of the grudge match between mainframe and distributed architectures).In turn this is also part of a wider political argument about whether data should be held by those who create it or those who manage it. We all know what big business and big government thinks so I would caution people to think a little before embracing the Cloud too enthusiastically. People might loathe Microsoft and think the desk top PC is old hat but both have provided a lot of power to ordinary people that some in our society would now like to curtail.

Years of working with the snake oil salesmen who work in the technological industries makes me wary of accepting the claim that something is revolutionary when in fact all that is on offer is something that has existed for years just dressed up in new format. The same caution makes me suspicious about the assertion that information technology always leads to efficiencies and cost savings. I think there have probably only been two or three really significant revolutionary waves of IT innovation. One was when all the major batch systems were introduced on mainframes eliminating thousands of menial manual clerical processes such as writing invoices, demand notes, balancing accounts etc. Another was when the internet allowed companies to get their customers to do most of the data input for them such as keying in purchase requirements, bank information etc. Most of the rest is a case of Emperors new clothes. The way that organisations such as the British government are constantly conned into ditching perfectly viable IT systems built over the years in favour of expensive and not terribly brilliant Enterprise Resource Management packages such as SAP that bring them almost no discernible benefits always amazes me. But then when it comes to pissing away the taxpayers money their are few greater masters than the IT procurement departments of major government departments.

The Internet is just a communication medium.

It WAS and IS revolutionary, just like the telephone, the radio and the telegraph revolutionised the communication mediums that preceded them.

Companies like Google only exist because the big players of the previous era, like Microsoft, were too slow in identifying where the internet's money making potential was, and in turn Microsoft only exists because the then big players, like IBM, didn't understand how much more profitable computer software would be than computer hardware.

Words and phrases like 'social media' and 'the cloud' are just invented to describe things that have always existed, but are in the process of taking on a new form. It's good to make new technology sound exciting, it means that you can encourage adoption, attract investment, and encourage old people to moan about how it all goes against the natural order of things, thus reminding yourself that your are not quite over the hill just yet.

Edited June 24, 2011 by Bear Goggles

[StainlessSteelCat]

Another cloud agnostic - it's the old terminal/networked computer/thin client debate again. Eventually, the pendulum will swing away from it (again) as we dream up a new massively bandwidth sucking application that doesn't make sense to run over the net (until we find this though - the hardware industry will have work really hard to give us excuses to upgrade). I guess potentially there could be some great potential power savings (and security breaches ) in the meantime though.

But 3D printers and telepresencing are going to be the major game changers of the next decade or so, I reckon. Why wait on something to be manufactured and shipped from China, when you can print it yourself? Could be as revolutionary(!) as mobile comms to the developing world. And telepresencing will probably kill the idea of going to the office for many.

Edited June 25, 2011 by StainlessSteelCat

[aa3]

I bloody hate "the cloud".

Another buzz word used by technological illiterates and CEO's with too much reading time on their hands to display their ignorance of the fact that, whatever you call it, at the end of the day your fancy strategy/vision/nonsense is always teetering on a metal box being poked by a man in a blue shirt at the bottom of the stack.

The fact that you have put it in another office or country where you have zero control is for some reason seen as a source of great comfort!

/rant

I know 'the cloud' is another buzzword and everytime I go to say it I basically grimace at the painful cliche. But this is one painful cliche that I believe actually does have insane potential behind it.

Google itself is essentially a cloud device. You need unbelievable computing power for a few seconds(or hundredths of a second) to search the internet to find what you want.

A lot of computing essentialy replaces what humans do. So we can get the work output we want, without paying someone to do it. Like automated switching compared to manual switching. But the cloud is something that wasn't even possible before. 10,000 human brains can't connect for a few seconds to make a split second deep decision.

[tahoma]

Price to make a simple web application running in a browser window? £500

Price to make a simple web application running in a browser window Facebook tab? £2500

Two grand to spend 5 minutes setting up the application, and adding the Facebook PHP SDK. Plus FB takes care of many of the security implications.

'Social' is definitely in a bubble.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Compare:

With:

Full article here:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/23/600191/is-the-tech-bubble-just-filled-with-hot-air/

Well worth a read. From where I'm sitting, the notion that the internet technology supercycle is only half way through with the majority of the value yet to be created, is very plausible. Ofc this doesn't say anything about houseprices, wages, price levels etc etc, just about future gains of various sectors.

actually looking at its thats selectively shocking of timeframe, im suprised youd post it giving the distortion it gives, all those bellweathers you mention are also averaging about 50% down (unless you cut it off at 2000 like the one in your pic), they are all part of the same credit bubble as houses,govt, banking, education,legal, everything and the Daq bust is likely the real peak of it as these tech advances have a habit of marking major cycle major tops, the Daqs already been in a bear market for a decade, personally i remain confident on the Daq seeing 300 before it sees 5k again although that low value may well not be reached for another 10 years but as highlighted above, its quite a useful marker to have these nonentity companies coming to IPO at this point in time with such high forward ratings, it shows high confidence, its part of what youd like to see at near/at a top

and lets not pretend the nasdaq along with everything else started in 1990, lets have a log to represent the credit hyperinflation properly

Edited June 25, 2011 by georgia o'keeffe

[hedgefunded]

The cloud concept has certainly been around for a few years. Of course, back then it was called Skynet.

[thecrashingisles]

The cloud concept has certainly been around for a few years. Of course, back then it was called Skynet.

We had the cloud when I was at school too. It was callled Nimbus.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

We had the cloud when I was at school too. It was callled Nimbus.

i had one of them at school aswell

[mirage]

As a bit of an internet utopian at heart I find the whole trend disturbing. The internet as an intellectual and cultural resource for personal empowerment seems unlikely to be experienced by many going forward.

Do you think that it will be experienced by many going backward?

[50sQuiff]

So what are we going to do, entertain ourselves back to a state of wealth? Invent thinner and lighter ways to watch Jeremy Kyle? Bubble 2.0 is in full swing and it's fairly insane to watch.

Groupon is not a revolutionary way to conduct localised commerce via the internet. It's a pump and dump of the highest order that adds no value for suppliers or customers whatsoever. And their apparent core USP? The strength of their comedy writing. Not bad for a company that destroys half a billion dollars in value every year. I'm sure the insiders will make out like bandits mind.

You know when something dramatic happens in your life and it allows you to see the trivialities you'd been worrying about for what they really are? When TSHTF and ever-larger doses of printing won't keep the ship afloat, I believe a semblance of clarity will envelop the sheeple. Who knows, they may eventually come to the realisation that they've been turned into neurotic circus performers forced to dance for bloated global brands.

I believe when the second leg of this crisis begins in earnest, social media will return to its role as a moderately entertaining, psychologically damaging and meaningless distraction. The absurd valuations will evaporate with the fickleness of a Facebook 'friend'.

But then I work for a mult-billion dollar internet company, so maybe I'm just jaded. Maybe I'm wrong and the idea that we can create wealth and happiness through the exchange of binary data will not be challenged going forward.

Since we had this discussion Groupon floated and crashed by 80%. Zynga down 69%. Facebook down 48%. Travelzoo down 75%. A rare case where HPC analysis and timing were correct

[PopGun]

Since we had this discussion Groupon floated and crashed by 80%. Zynga down 69%. Facebook down 48%. Travelzoo down 75%. A rare case where HPC analysis and timing were correct

The forum of stopped clocks strike again.. ha!

[Nationalist]

There are approx 10^28 atoms in the human body. When we have a computer big enough to model all the interactions of these atoms it will take a few minutes to design a drug that will keep you young forever.

More generally: computer modelling of the metabolism will be a game changer. At the moment it's too complex for human understanding.

[gadget]

I think the next leg up money wise for the internet is going to come from money.

By which i mean banking. who needs banks getting between borrowers and lenders when the internet can do it for them?

The fact that people got overexcited about social web companies doesn't mean the internet isn't going to create more giants.

[The Spaniard]

I think the next leg up money wise for the internet is going to come from money.

By which i mean banking. who needs banks getting between borrowers and lenders when the internet can do it for them?

The fact that people got overexcited about social web companies doesn't mean the internet isn't going to create more giants.

Monetary reform, peer-to-peer banking and the internet converge:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Bank-Future-Protect-Before-Governments/dp/1907720375/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top

[Woot]

I'm concerned the web is making people thicker. If you go onto Yahoo answers people are asking question such as "what is 10 stone in pounds." They don't seem to realise that Google search will calculate this for you, but anyway its worrying that all people will need, is the ability to type something into Google.

A few days ago I did a blood pressure reading and typed the result into Google to "interpret" it, I was amazed to see a ton of websites optimised for virtually every available blood pressure read out.

Tech generally is making some people thicker - who needs experts when you have expert systems? I'm always appalled when I go to the GP and they use an expert sys to diagnose that which GPs used to have to know through learning and experience.

Having said that, it's all about finding the knowledge rather than retaining it these days; makes it harder to cultivate independent, computationally thinking kids though.

[macca]

The technology is becoming more convenient and powerful BUT I don't find it that exciting anymore. 20 yrs ago computers were a portal into the future, multimedia, true colour graphics, cd quality audio and early internet were awe inspiring. Now its just become a replacement for your hifi, video player, library and typewriter. Naturally mobile phones will become a part replacement for desktop/laptops outside the home.

As for software, I'd be quite happy using a 10 yr old copy of Ms Office or Photoshop, it does the same job. I'm happy to listen to mp3 quality audio or compressed video. Computers were more exciting 20 yrs ago. Today I am looking for something that has the same buzz that computers provided when they were just beginning to go mainstream.

Everything in the last few decades has been a refinement of existing technology. I don't see any new technology on the horizon that will change the world the way that computers have.

[cybernoid]

Portable internet connected touch screen devices is the new revolution, you're actually at the start of it.

Out of the dot com bubble meaningful value was created, over excited ignorant investors made idiots of themselves over it all in the beginning, but that was a side show. And they are doing it again. So what?

I find it ironic that a poster linked to amazon in this thread. More so where this discussion is taking place.

Edited August 16, 2012 by cybernoid

[200p]

The end stage is when people pay £mills for a "ten year block" of virtual life. This is where people are being voluntarily plugged into the matrix, because the virtual utopia can be made perfect (with unlimited energy, resources), to escape the drudgery of the real world. A virtual perpetual heroin rush multiplied by a thousand times.

^The Red Dwarf crew wake up from a virtual reality game after years of being plugged in, in Back to Reality.

[Traktion]

I think the next leg up money wise for the internet is going to come from money.

By which i mean banking. who needs banks getting between borrowers and lenders when the internet can do it for them?

The fact that people got overexcited about social web companies doesn't mean the internet isn't going to create more giants.

Bitcoin and the ilk will not only make the current banking model obsolete, but it will also do the same for state fiat too.

In the process, the way tax is gathered will likely be shattered completely too. Without the state being able to spy on every transaction, the black market will blossom, as will free trade.

[gadget]

Bitcoin and the ilk will not only make the current banking model obsolete, but it will also do the same for state fiat too.

In the process, the way tax is gathered will likely be shattered completely too. Without the state being able to spy on every transaction, the black market will blossom, as will free trade.

Sorry i think Bitcoin etc will remain solely for the tin-foil hat brigade.

I was talking of P2P lending (ZOPA, Funding Circle, Rate Setter etc)

Plus others in the payment area (Pay-Pal but also Square etc )

Edited August 16, 2012 by gadget

[bmf]

The technology is becoming more convenient and powerful BUT I don't find it that exciting anymore. 20 yrs ago computers were a portal into the future, multimedia, true colour graphics, cd quality audio and early internet were awe inspiring. Now its just become a replacement for your hifi, video player, library and typewriter. Naturally mobile phones will become a part replacement for desktop/laptops outside the home.

As for software, I'd be quite happy using a 10 yr old copy of Ms Office or Photoshop, it does the same job. I'm happy to listen to mp3 quality audio or compressed video. Computers were more exciting 20 yrs ago. Today I am looking for something that has the same buzz that computers provided when they were just beginning to go mainstream.

Everything in the last few decades has been a refinement of existing technology. I don't see any new technology on the horizon that will change the world the way that computers have.

I agree - it feels stuck in a rut. Biotech? Possibly tech security is still interesting and innovative, eg stuxnet.

[stormymonday_2011]

The technology is becoming more convenient and powerful BUT I don't find it that exciting anymore. 20 yrs ago computers were a portal into the future, multimedia, true colour graphics, cd quality audio and early internet were awe inspiring. Now its just become a replacement for your hifi, video player, library and typewriter. Naturally mobile phones will become a part replacement for desktop/laptops outside the home.

As for software, I'd be quite happy using a 10 yr old copy of Ms Office or Photoshop, it does the same job. I'm happy to listen to mp3 quality audio or compressed video. Computers were more exciting 20 yrs ago. Today I am looking for something that has the same buzz that computers provided when they were just beginning to go mainstream.

Everything in the last few decades has been a refinement of existing technology. I don't see any new technology on the horizon that will change the world the way that computers have.

Agreed.

The technology has become ubiquitous and more refined but that does not necessarily make it innovative or revolutionary no matter how much some people in IT try to claim the contrary. In fact most of the recent 'advances' have more to do with the way that the existing technology has been networked together rather than with any huge leaps in computer or software design. At its heart the industry still relies on the Von Neumann architectural model.

[stormymonday_2011]

Portable internet connected touch screen devices is the new revolution, you're actually at the start of it.

Out of the dot com bubble meaningful value was created, over excited ignorant investors made idiots of themselves over it all in the beginning, but that was a side show. And they are doing it again. So what?

I find it ironic that a poster linked to amazon in this thread. More so where this discussion is taking place.

It is still just a computer with a processor, some random access memory, some permanent storage and some devices for handling input and output.

The key thing about portable internet technology is wireless networking and telephony not the I/O interface. All a touch screen does is to weld the input and output devices together meaning you don't have to lug around a mouse and keyboard thus making the computer easier to use on the move. It does not really change the nature of the way the I/O is handled. In fact while touch may be as quick as using a mouse it is probably not as precise and virtual onscreen keyboards are definitely slower as a data input method than a physical keyboard.

[bmf]

It is still just a computer with a processor, some random access memory, some permanent storage and some devices for handling input and output.

The key thing about portable internet technology is wireless networking and telephony not the I/O interface. All a touch screen does is to weld the input and output devices together meaning you don't have to lug around a mouse and keyboard thus making the computer easier to use on the move. It does not really change the nature of the way the I/O is handled. In fact while touch may be as quick as using a mouse it is probably not as precise and virtual onscreen keyboards are definitely slower as a data input method than a physical keyboard.

Touch devices are the logical endpoint for the computer as a device for consumption, not creation. Therefore input is not required.

Innovation as far as computing goes seems to have been retarded by apple, who seem to just improve things like the Japanese. For example producing absurdly expensive laptops which have smaller components so they are thinner. Big deal!

[silver surfer]

Compare:

With:

Full article here:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/23/600191/is-the-tech-bubble-just-filled-with-hot-air/

Well worth a read. From where I'm sitting, the notion that the internet technology supercycle is only half way through with the majority of the value yet to be created, is very plausible. Ofc this doesn't say anything about houseprices, wages, price levels etc etc, just about future gains of various sectors.

That the internet is a creator of wealth is a terrible fallacy. It doesn't employ that many people or produce much in the way of profits. However, it is a fantastic inflator of bubbles!

The real story is that technology led productivity gains have slowly been losing momentum for decades.

The productivity gains that came from railroads and the electrification of factories were immense. The next generation of productivity gains, that came from motor cars, telephones, and television, were down a little but still pretty impressive. The most recent productivity gains however, from computerisation, air travel, and the internet, haven't been sufficient to materially raise western living standards over the past thirty years.

No one knows what the future will bring, maybe there's some astonishing technology like cold fusion or nano-technology or bio-engineering, that could catapult the world forward again. But the evidence of the past few decades suggests not, and that after an astounding blip following the industrial revolution, the world is slowly returning to the kind of productivity growth that characterised humankind for the 10,000 years prior to 1800. Namely productivity gains of about 0.02% per year.