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Technology Supeycle Has 15 Years Left To Run?

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Full article here:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/23/600191/is-the-tech-bubble-just-filled-with-hot-air/

Well worth a read. From where I'm sitting, the notion that the internet technology supercycle is only half way through with the majority of the value yet to be created, is very plausible. Ofc this doesn't say anything about houseprices, wages, price levels etc etc, just about future gains of various sectors.

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Fascinating post, makes me think. There does seem to be many slam dunk IPO's coming for the internet companies. And some are making real money finally. Like look at Groupon as one example.

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There is plenty of new stuff to come, particularly in the smart phone arena and the digital wallets they can bring.

IMO, the Internet is moving away from being used on (EDIT: just) a desktop computer and instead into all other devices. Google I/O, TVs with BBC iPlayer, laptops, netbooks, tablets, smart phones - the list goes on. There seems to be plenty of innovation going on in many areas of IT.

Also (again, IMO) much of this is off the back of open source software too (Linux is everywhere now - even the desktop is decent). From researching the role of intellectual property and the ways it can stifle growth, this probably isn't all that surprising (see sig for a link to a good, free, e-book).

Edited by Traktion

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Intel argues every 10x increase in performance enables some huge new industry that few can forsee(including the people at Intel).

Performance can come in different forms too.. communication speed, memory, FLOPS, power use. Like those smart phones that are proliferating probably would not have been possible to make 10 years ago. Having a smart phone marketplace of tens of millions of users creates opportunities that weren't possible before.

'The Cloud' is enabled by radical improvements in communication speed, and so many devices having connection to the internet.

The Cloud itself will create opportunities that weren't possible before. Like applications that need huge computing power for short bursts.

One thing I think is there is going to be a gradual move over the next few decades into generalized intelligence. Like right now people have to ask the computer specific questions. Like what is 67*29? But over time its getting more general. Like you can type in google How do I turn off paragraph marks in outlook? It gives you links to people who have asked the same question. But in time maybe it could figure out the answer for you based on its own search. Like Watson was doing on Jeopardy!

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You would think that with all these new smart phones mobile n/ws would be coining it. But your wrong. They are getting killed as the over the top players use up their b/w and everyone wants a flat data plan, so revenue per bit is falling. We will be entering a crunch point where the n/w will start to fall over, and we will all have to start paying extra for QOS enabled apps. Which will be good for me, but there is pain on the way.

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Fascinating post, makes me think. There does seem to be many slam dunk IPO's coming for the internet companies. And some are making real money finally. Like look at Groupon as one example.

Google Reggie Middleton he will put you straight on these IPOs.

Check out the experiences of the Groupon retailers its a horror story - they really don't make money.

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The internet bubble is the latest attempt by the banks to push Benny the Jets paper money into another bubble.

The pushers are the same ones who pushed the real estate debt drug last time - nice fat fees and a bit of speculation its pathetic really.

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Without giving too much away, I can say from personal experience that there is currently loads of venture capital activity right now in tech. I was a bit young to be in the thick of it at that level during the original dotcom boom, so I can't personally compare now to then, but I can tell you that there is suddenly a frenzy of activity in terms of venture capital cash burning a whole in some very deep pockets. Once one gets a sniff of something (And I'm not just talking about the high profile sites like Groupon) the others all start circling like vultures.

Interesting times... dotcom boom 2.0? Yep, I reckon so.

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So what are we going to do, entertain ourselves back to a state of wealth? Invent thinner and lighter ways to watch Jeremy Kyle? Bubble 2.0 is in full swing and it's fairly insane to watch.

Groupon is not a revolutionary way to conduct localised commerce via the internet. It's a pump and dump of the highest order that adds no value for suppliers or customers whatsoever. And their apparent core USP? The strength of their comedy writing. Not bad for a company that destroys half a billion dollars in value every year. I'm sure the insiders will make out like bandits mind.

You know when something dramatic happens in your life and it allows you to see the trivialities you'd been worrying about for what they really are? When TSHTF and ever-larger doses of printing won't keep the ship afloat, I believe a semblance of clarity will envelop the sheeple. Who knows, they may eventually come to the realisation that they've been turned into neurotic circus performers forced to dance for bloated global brands.

I believe when the second leg of this crisis begins in earnest, social media will return to its role as a moderately entertaining, psychologically damaging and meaningless distraction. The absurd valuations will evaporate with the fickleness of a Facebook 'friend'.

But then I work for a mult-billion dollar internet company, so maybe I'm just jaded. Maybe I'm wrong and the idea that we can create wealth and happiness through the exchange of binary data will not be challenged going forward.

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So what are we going to do, entertain ourselves back to a state of wealth? Invent thinner and lighter ways to watch Jeremy Kyle? Bubble 2.0 is in full swing and it's fairly insane to watch.

Groupon is not a revolutionary way to conduct localised commerce via the internet. It's a pump and dump of the highest order that adds no value for suppliers or customers whatsoever. And their apparent core USP? The strength of their comedy writing. Not bad for a company that destroys half a billion dollars in value every year. I'm sure the insiders will make out like bandits mind.

You know when something dramatic happens in your life and it allows you to see the trivialities you'd been worrying about for what they really are? When TSHTF and ever-larger doses of printing won't keep the ship afloat, I believe a semblance of clarity will envelop the sheeple. Who knows, they may eventually come to the realisation that they've been turned into neurotic circus performers forced to dance for bloated global brands.

I believe when the second leg of this crisis begins in earnest, social media will return to its role as a moderately entertaining, psychologically damaging and meaningless distraction. The absurd valuations will evaporate with the fickleness of a Facebook 'friend'.

But then I work for a mult-billion dollar internet company, so maybe I'm just jaded. Maybe I'm wrong and the idea that we can create wealth and happiness through the exchange of binary data will not be challenged going forward.

Excellent post. I don't think you are jaded I believe you are realistic it often feels the same in this country.;)

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One thing I think is there is going to be a gradual move over the next few decades into generalized intelligence. Like right now people have to ask the computer specific questions. Like what is 67*29? But over time its getting more general. Like you can type in google How do I turn off paragraph marks in outlook? It gives you links to people who have asked the same question. But in time maybe it could figure out the answer for you based on its own search. Like Watson was doing on Jeopardy!

Semantic web, yes? Still no practical solution to that.

If it happens I guess alot of traditional professions will go down the tubes. Might even make big government redundant.

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Semantic web, yes? Still no practical solution to that.

If it happens I guess alot of traditional professions will go down the tubes. Might even make big government redundant.

I'm concerned the web is making people thicker. If you go onto Yahoo answers people are asking question such as "what is 10 stone in pounds." They don't seem to realise that Google search will calculate this for you, but anyway its worrying that all people will need, is the ability to type something into Google.

A few days ago I did a blood pressure reading and typed the result into Google to "interpret" it, I was amazed to see a ton of websites optimised for virtually every available blood pressure read out.

Edited by John Steed

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So what are we going to do, entertain ourselves back to a state of wealth? Invent thinner and lighter ways to watch Jeremy Kyle? Bubble 2.0 is in full swing and it's fairly insane to watch.

Groupon is not a revolutionary way to conduct localised commerce via the internet. It's a pump and dump of the highest order that adds no value for suppliers or customers whatsoever. And their apparent core USP? The strength of their comedy writing. Not bad for a company that destroys half a billion dollars in value every year. I'm sure the insiders will make out like bandits mind.

You know when something dramatic happens in your life and it allows you to see the trivialities you'd been worrying about for what they really are? When TSHTF and ever-larger doses of printing won't keep the ship afloat, I believe a semblance of clarity will envelop the sheeple. Who knows, they may eventually come to the realisation that they've been turned into neurotic circus performers forced to dance for bloated global brands.

I believe when the second leg of this crisis begins in earnest, social media will return to its role as a moderately entertaining, psychologically damaging and meaningless distraction. The absurd valuations will evaporate with the fickleness of a Facebook 'friend'.

But then I work for a mult-billion dollar internet company, so maybe I'm just jaded. Maybe I'm wrong and the idea that we can create wealth and happiness through the exchange of binary data will not be challenged going forward.

i assumed he was talking about its supercycle bear market, its interesting to see bull market tops and subsequent bear market rallies create the same bullishness near peaks, its likely people just love being rinsed

Edited by georgia o'keeffe

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So what are we going to do, entertain ourselves back to a state of wealth? Invent thinner and lighter ways to watch Jeremy Kyle? Bubble 2.0 is in full swing and it's fairly insane to watch.

Groupon is not a revolutionary way to conduct localised commerce via the internet. It's a pump and dump of the highest order that adds no value for suppliers or customers whatsoever. And their apparent core USP? The strength of their comedy writing. Not bad for a company that destroys half a billion dollars in value every year. I'm sure the insiders will make out like bandits mind.

You know when something dramatic happens in your life and it allows you to see the trivialities you'd been worrying about for what they really are? When TSHTF and ever-larger doses of printing won't keep the ship afloat, I believe a semblance of clarity will envelop the sheeple. Who knows, they may eventually come to the realisation that they've been turned into neurotic circus performers forced to dance for bloated global brands.

I believe when the second leg of this crisis begins in earnest, social media will return to its role as a moderately entertaining, psychologically damaging and meaningless distraction. The absurd valuations will evaporate with the fickleness of a Facebook 'friend'.

But then I work for a mult-billion dollar internet company, so maybe I'm just jaded. Maybe I'm wrong and the idea that we can create wealth and happiness through the exchange of binary data will not be challenged going forward.

Groupon is a great big pile of steaming horse poo, yes. But that's kinda not the point. In the same way that your crappy slave box in stabsville shouldn't be worth half a million quid, someone will buy it for that when there a bubble blowing.

It's all about buying a dream. And there are lots of dreams being sold for big bucks in tech right now. Some of them will of course turn out to be nightmares, but for now there's just euphoria out there.

Bubblicious!

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Remember the net from 1999 ? Sifting through garbage!

There's still so much crap out there and I've added to it with this post!

It does feel IMO we're going back to that stage where's the so much, and 99% is uttter garbage.

Edit: well that was my experience with ebay too

Edited by Ash4781

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i assumed he was talking about its supercycle bear market, its interesting to see bull market tops and subsequent bear market rallies create the same euphoria near peaks, its likely people just love being rinsed

That's what the charts suggest but I could be interpreting the post incorrectly. Isn't sceppy usually techno-utopian? :) I was just offering some general comment on the industry, because as I think you're alluding to, this very much feels like we're heading towards the peak of a corrective wave in the tech/internet business.

There is plenty of new stuff to come, particularly in the smart phone arena and the digital wallets they can bring.

IMO, the Internet is moving away from being used on (EDIT: just) a desktop computer and instead into all other devices. Google I/O, TVs with BBC iPlayer, laptops, netbooks, tablets, smart phones - the list goes on. There seems to be plenty of innovation going on in many areas of IT.

Also (again, IMO) much of this is off the back of open source software too (Linux is everywhere now - even the desktop is decent). From researching the role of intellectual property and the ways it can stifle growth, this probably isn't all that surprising (see sig for a link to a good, free, e-book).

I've got no doubt that there is much money to be made in the 'smart' device and service area. I've been amazed at the swiftness the sheeple have had this rammed down their throats and their enthusiasm for 50 quid-a-month contracts spanning 18 months.

As a bit of an internet utopian at heart I find the whole trend disturbing. The internet as an intellectual and cultural resource for personal empowerment seems unlikely to be experienced by many going forward. The whole tendency towards set-top box and mobile access means dumbed-down user interfaces, content created for even shorter attention spans and services that cater for passive consumption. Bread and circuses via the 3G network, basically.

I don't want to be prudish or snobby about it and I'm not saying this isn't all fun for Joe Sixpack and lucrative for some very good companies. But I thought we were going to do so much more.

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You would think that with all these new smart phones mobile n/ws would be coining it. But your wrong. They are getting killed as the over the top players use up their b/w and everyone wants a flat data plan, so revenue per bit is falling. We will be entering a crunch point where the n/w will start to fall over, and we will all have to start paying extra for QOS enabled apps. Which will be good for me, but there is pain on the way.

Er.. LTE

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While I agree the internet has been one of the biggest technological innovations in my lifetime I dont really think the IT industry can take too much credit for its success as so many of its key players such as Microsoft resisted it fiercely when it emerged as a force. Indeed, much of the impetus for its development came from outside the established companies.Moreover much of the internet content is not innovative at all - a written article is still a page of text, a film is still a movie, and a purchase order is still just an accounting record. The fact that the item is delivered electronically should not disguise the fact that it is still the traditional product in a fancy wrapper. I suppose that if you accept Marshall McLuhan's dictum that "The medium is the message" then the fact all the forms of information are joined in new ways is in itself significant but I would not get too carried away with that idea. With regard to concepts such as the Cloud this is just a rerun of the hoary old argument about whether data is better handled locally or in a centralised location (ie yet another rerun of the grudge match between mainframe and distributed architectures).In turn this is also part of a wider political argument about whether data should be held by those who create it or those who manage it. We all know what big business and big government thinks so I would caution people to think a little before embracing the Cloud too enthusiastically. People might loathe Microsoft and think the desk top PC is old hat but both have provided a lot of power to ordinary people that some in our society would now like to curtail.

Years of working with the snake oil salesmen who work in the technological industries makes me wary of accepting the claim that something is revolutionary when in fact all that is on offer is something that has existed for years just dressed up in new format. The same caution makes me suspicious about the assertion that information technology always leads to efficiencies and cost savings. I think there have probably only been two or three really significant revolutionary waves of IT innovation. One was when all the major batch systems were introduced on mainframes eliminating thousands of menial manual clerical processes such as writing invoices, demand notes, balancing accounts etc. Another was when the internet allowed companies to get their customers to do most of the data input for them such as keying in purchase requirements, bank information etc. Most of the rest is a case of Emperors new clothes. The way that organisations such as the British government are constantly conned into ditching perfectly viable IT systems built over the years in favour of expensive and not terribly brilliant Enterprise Resource Management packages such as SAP that bring them almost no discernible benefits always amazes me. But then when it comes to pissing away the taxpayers money their are few greater masters than the IT procurement departments of major government departments.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Intel argues every 10x increase in performance enables some huge new industry that few can forsee(including the people at Intel).

Performance can come in different forms too.. communication speed, memory, FLOPS, power use. Like those smart phones that are proliferating probably would not have been possible to make 10 years ago. Having a smart phone marketplace of tens of millions of users creates opportunities that weren't possible before.

'The Cloud' is enabled by radical improvements in communication speed, and so many devices having connection to the internet.

The Cloud itself will create opportunities that weren't possible before. Like applications that need huge computing power for short bursts.

One thing I think is there is going to be a gradual move over the next few decades into generalized intelligence. Like right now people have to ask the computer specific questions. Like what is 67*29? But over time its getting more general. Like you can type in google How do I turn off paragraph marks in outlook? It gives you links to people who have asked the same question. But in time maybe it could figure out the answer for you based on its own search. Like Watson was doing on Jeopardy!

I bloody hate "the cloud".

Another buzz word used by technological illiterates and CEO's with too much reading time on their hands to display their ignorance of the fact that, whatever you call it, at the end of the day your fancy strategy/vision/nonsense is always teetering on a metal box being poked by a man in a blue shirt at the bottom of the stack.

The fact that you have put it in another office or country where you have zero control is for some reason seen as a source of great comfort!

/rant

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As a bit of an internet utopian at heart I find the whole trend disturbing. The internet as an intellectual and cultural resource for personal empowerment seems unlikely to be experienced by many going forward. The whole tendency towards set-top box and mobile access means dumbed-down user interfaces, content created for even shorter attention spans and services that cater for passive consumption. Bread and circuses via the 3G network, basically.

Yep- the big players are desperate to gain control of the web before it decimates their business models- and dedicated delivery platforms is their weapon on choice- ITunes being the template for this.

The old battle between VHS and BETAMAX was won on content rather than quality- VHS had more goodies to offer.

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While I agree the internet has been one of the biggest technological innovations in my lifetime I dont really think the IT industry can take too much credit for its success as so many of its key players such as Microsoft resisted it fiercely when it emerged as a force. Indeed, much of the impetus for its development came from outside the established companies.Moreover much of the internet content is not innovative at all - a written article is still a page of text, a film is still a movie, and a purchase order is still just an accounting record. The fact that the item is delivered electronically should not disguise the fact that it is still the traditional product in a fancy wrapper. I suppose that if you accept Marshall McLuhan's dictum that "The medium is the message" then the fact all the forms of information are joined in new ways is in itself significant but I would not get too carried away with that idea. With regard to concepts such as the Cloud this is just a rerun of the hoary old argument about whether data is better handled locally or in a centralised location (ie yet another reun of the grudge match between mainframe and distributed architectures).In turn this is also part of a wider political argument about whether data should be held by those who create it or those who manage it. We all know what big business and big government thinks so I would caution people to think a little before embracing the Cloud too enthusiastically. People might loathe Microsoft and think the desk top PC is old hat but both have provided a lot of power to ordinary people that some in our society would now like to curtail.

Years of working with the snake oil salesmen who work in the technological industries makes me wary of accepting the claim that something is revolutionary when in fact all that is on offer is something that has existed for years just dressed up in new format. The same caution makes me suspicious about the assertion that information technology always leads to efficiencies and cost savings. I think there have probably only been two or three really significant revolutionary waves of IT innovation. One was when all the major batch systems were introduced on mainframes eliminating thousands of menial manual clerical processes such as writing invoices, demand notes, balancing accounts etc. Another was when the internet allowed companies to get their customers to do most of the data input for them such as keying in purchase requirements, bank information etc. Most of the rest is a case of Emperors new clothes. The way that organisations such as the British government are constantly conned into ditching perfectly viable IT systems built over the years in favour of expensive and not terribly brilliant Enterprise Resource Management packages such as SAP that bring them almost no discernible benefits always amazes me. But then when it comes to pissing away the taxpayers money their are few greater masters than the IT procurement departments of major government departments.

Don't underestimate what desktop applications have done just because they seem so common place.

Go talk to a quantity surveyor about his job 15 years ago compared to now.

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I bloody hate "the cloud".

Another buzz word used by technological illiterates and CEO's with too much reading time on their hands to display their ignorance of the fact that, whatever you call it, at the end of the day your fancy strategy/vision/nonsense is always teetering on a metal box being poked by a man in a blue shirt at the bottom of the stack.

The fact that you have put it in another office or country where you have zero control is for some reason seen as a source of great comfort!

/rant

Agreed.

Few people understand that for all the changes that have occurred in IT over the past 50 years the basic architecture set out by Johnny Van Neumann has not really altered that much

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann_architecture

And as you say it is all essentially a lot of electronic metal boxes stuffed in warehouses often maintained by half trained monkeys

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Don't underestimate what desktop applications have done just because they seem so common place.

Go talk to a quantity surveyor about his job 15 years ago compared to now.

The creation of the desk top PC along with electronic mail were the other technological waves I was thinking about but I always have mixed feelings about the former because, while for certain professions such as designers, engineers, quantity surveyors etc it transformed the job, in other areas it produced no savings at all. For example was there really any efficiency gains for business in sacking thousands of trained audio typists and getting more highly paid employees to type the same documents in Word at one quarter the speed.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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