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House Price Crash Forum


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About aa3

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    HPC Guru
  1. I'm not sure how much our elites want those talented aspiring people to stay. There is only so much room at the top, and its reserved for their kids. Its terrible but if you were an elite you would probably be glad to see a bunch of smart young men leave, and maybe get a bunch of underclass immigrants in their place.
  2. Its too radical right now. But eventually to come out of winter we will need this thinking. Alas winter usually lasts 25 years in the cycle. 25 years from now people will all agree this is the obvious answer and they knew it all along. Where I would critique him is about taxing the rich more. In most of Europe the rich are taxed hard, yet they are in the same or worse situation as America. Instead of arguing for hammering the most successful, nations should ease the burden on most people. In the US they are doing this to some level, there was a 25% cut in the social security tax, whic
  3. Look at these numbers of global PC sales: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share_of_leading_PC_vendors 1996: 70mil 1997: 80mil 1998: 92mil 1999: 113mil 2000: 134mil (Intel & friends share price peaks) 2001: 128mil (tech wreck, people calling the top) 2002: 132mil 2003: 168mil 2004: 189mil 2005: 218mil (death of the pc called) 2006: 239mil 2007: 271mil 2008: 302mil (PC pronounced dead with rise of alternatives, global 'great recession') 2009: 305mil (depths of the recession, outlook bleak) 2010: 351mil 2011: 352mil 2012: 352mil (post mortems writt
  4. That might happen but compare the difference for the shareholders up until the present. Ford's stock is worth 50 billion right now.. actually higher than 10 years ago. GM shareholders lost everything. Granted the new GM is looking good, but that doesn't help the old shareholders.
  5. I have a contrarian view on computers.. I don't think desktops or laptops are going anywhere. I understand laptops in that they are portable.. but the smaller devices have limited screen size and you cannot easily type or use a mouse. Imo what will drive the desktop market is when gaming makes an eventual comeback to prominence, and you just need the power of a desktop to play the latest game.
  6. Public capitalism is gradually failing. Publicly owned companies are always going to be around, but year by year companies are going private. Dell wasted over 20 billion USD buying its own stock to appease short-sighted shareholders. As the stocks declined in value most of that money was lost. Imagine if instead they had invested in increased research and development. Dell spends less than 1 billion a year on R&D. Or simply built up retained earnings to be debt free, and maybe buy failed companies' technologies. But those are long term strategies. They pay off over many years of ca
  7. I think we should stop even referring to the particular stripes of the politicians, and just call them 'the party'. Dividing ourselves into support of one group just divides us. It wastes energy of people thinking that by supporting one or the other things will change.
  8. Not many people in the blogosphere understand that point. If the bankruptcy process had been allowed to play out, shareholders would lose everything, then depositors then the bondholders by order of seniority. The bankruptcy trustee would have auctioned off the loan book. If a hedge fund picked up a loan book for say 10% of the face value. They would call up the borrowers and say if you can come up with 20% of the face value the loan is forgiven. The borrower would then go to a new bank and come up with that lower amount. It wouldn't have been the paradise where dutiful savers are re
  9. From what I have read the road construction owners are very politically powerful. Sad that they don't do something like beautiful brick work on the river side.. it is labour intensive which makes it ideal. I think the problem has been the size of the various stimulus packages they have done. This one is said to be one of the bigger ones, it is just over $100 billion. A lot of money, yet only 2% of Japanese annual GDP. To give a comparison, look at the war spending during WWII, that lifted the US out of a deep economic depression. It was about 30% of gdp for five straight years - so overa
  10. Ah hit by snow in winter again.. if it wasn't for snow in winter they would have hit the targets. So you can't blame the political leadership for this failure. Last year summer got us with hot summer days keeping people outside enjoying the weather, instead of shopping. I remember one of your threads.. the rains in fall kept people indoors and depressed what the numbers 'would' have been. If I remember excitement of the royal wedding kept people out of shops during Spring. Of course the real problem is what redcellar is saying, the economy has been in decline for a long time, noticeably f
  11. Politically it is a lot harder than one would think to spend massively in stimulus. For example export companies are not eager to see the government begin pushing wages internally. They are quite happy with a state of high unemployment and depressed incomes. Local government is not eager to see the national government spend more and thus expands its power. Various ideologies such as fiscal conservatives and libertarians do not want to see expansion in the government which the funding will bring. Each society also has a carefull constructed hierarchy of incomes. The status/class system.
  12. $100 billion in stimulus is a good small start. It seems the new prime ministers words have been the main thing driving down the Yen so far. Basically all the prime minister has to do is get the ball rolling and then allow the private sector debt expansion to run. Japan isn't like the West where the private sector balance sheets are out of control with debt. The national debt is problematic in a shrinking economy, with a deflating currency. But once economic energy and vitality returns and the currency is gradually inflating.. then the debt fades away as a problem. Economies go through
  13. The government is already following this plan when it comes to water, electricity, land and oil. And it is working for their aims. If you want people to use less of something, raise the prices. Food is just the next logical area to start really increasing the prices. As long as they do it for green reasons, the people will widely support it.
  14. The Japanese plan of using QE to bailout banks and failing corporations seems very poor compared to bailing out households with something like lower taxes. They have £175 billion a year in free money to play with. At a minimum they could have dramatically reduced all tax on income and capital gains. Considering the total tax take of the national government is £500 billion, you get a picture of the scale of tax cutting that could have happened. Instead the Tories came in and raised taxes. The US took a bold move and reduced individual social security tax by 25%. That was an average ta
  15. Don't get me wrong, I am glad to see people getting wiped out who made bets that turned out wrong, and were overextended. Modern Brits believe they should have the rewards of investment without the risks. Which is impossible, you can't have yin without yang. The key two words in your post are overextended and buying overpriced. Someone playing in the London market right now, where there is little relationship between rents and house prices, is playing a dangerous game. They could see wild appreciation or rapid falls, wiping out their capital. The North of England looks a better bet. S
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