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House Price Crash Forum


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About scepticus

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    I live on HPC!

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  1. Stuff like this takes a long time to change, but it is changing. Asian economies, including china, all of which don't see much immigration are ageing rapidly and will fall off in population from mid century. All living systems, composed of living agents whether plan, animal or human always expand to fill their niche and to maximise the production of entropy - there is nothing magical or mysterious about this, it just means they will access and burn as much free energy as they can within their environment. Most living systems will level out when they hit maximum entropy production but som
  2. WFH changes to cultural norms is a huge deal. Not just in terms of economics etc. Think about the western cultural celebration of extroversion. There is no real opportunity for alpha male-ing people remotely. The tables are turning in favor of the quietly hard-working, diligent and well organised folks at the expense of the meet and greet type. I manage a team and have done for a long time, and when everyone is WFH I value the former type more than the latter, they get more done and need less maintenance because they are in their introverted element. Give them interesting stuff to do and
  3. Well maybe, but A.Steve's model uses assets which can be created, as far as I understood it. He gave an example of a painting of a turd...
  4. I think it matters whether it is outside or inside money. If its inside money, what is it backed by? Presumably, the very same alpha beta and gamma your players are using for their ponzi scheme? I guess your model assumes outside money? The stock of money is not useful in determining prices without a velocity factor to multiply the stock by, after all that is just GDP right? So your model could feature a steadily rising supply and a steadily falling velocity, which is exactly what we have seen the last 50 years, and your model would have no asset price rises. I agree, I ha
  5. indeed, similar to a pyramid scheme. That can go on forever if one posits an unlimited supply of credit supplied to new entrants. Of course no pyramid scheme runs forever. As you know my own view of the world is that something very similar to A.Steve's hypothesis has indeed been going on, but that it comes to a halt when the rate of return hits zero due to the income to menial work falling to such a low share that the dynamics change. I fail to see how the proposed model is much different to the Japanese property market (and related asset markets) prior to their big crash. The r
  6. Ooh, a theory, not one of mine this time! Your theory takes money as axiomatic, but does not state what properties said money needs to have. For example, does it matter whether the money is a safe asset, or not? Also, it seems the velocity component of money is rather important in your model, which is couched in terms of successive periods in which participants spend and re-invest proceeds of the previous period. If the values of alpha beta and gamma are going to consistently increase, as you suggest, what does your theory suggest about the supply of money, the supply of credit
  7. Nice troll by the mumsnetters 🤣 Hit the spot I would say.
  8. Right on time: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/tax-hikes-coronavirus-cost-a4536186.html
  9. I'm on the side of the debate that sooner or later HMRC is going to come calling. The tabloids may have been baying for bailouts recently, but when the national bill becomes due and we've had a few documentaries about rampant fraud by immoral folks scamming covid handouts they'll change their tune right quick and will be baying for the blood of the greedy. Its what tabloids do, and the government of the day will be required to go after the fraud since they'll be putting taxes up on all the hard working families.
  10. The day that the folks on this forum capitulate will be the signal for the start of the crash. Sods law, innit.
  11. inflation is driven by adding more financial wealth to the private sector, when the economy has not grown proportionately. It doesn't really matter, in zirpworld, whether that wealth is in the form of new base money or in the form of government debt. What happens when the government issues a new 100 million of government debt? Assume that the existing stock of government debt plus base money (e.g. all public sector liabilities) is 10000 million, just for the sake of argument. The private sector gives the government 100 million pounds to buy the debt. Now private sector NET wealth is
  12. the quantity theory of money is not dead, but its far, far too simplistic. It needs updating to match reality.
  13. a lot more than that I reckon, the windows alone could be 20K. Looks like a "knocker-downer" to me.
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