Kyoto Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 why are the media and posters so obsessed with forecasts from institutions that couldn't forecast tomorrow's weather if they had the met office on the phone? +1. After monitoring these things for years, the predictions just aren't worth the paper they are written on. It's just easy fodder for newspapers to write about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 God this new year has gone bearish. Although to be honest every year around this time it appeared the dam was finally going to break only for someone to delay the "inevitable" for a bit longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 +1. After monitoring these things for years, the predictions just aren't worth the paper they are written on. It's just easy fodder for newspapers to write about. But if you predict often enough surely at some point the law of averages state you'll get one right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 House prices this year will plunge as much as 10pc to their lowest level since 2004 after suffering a far sharper decline than expected last month, economists have warned "Such sharp declines would outstrip the official forecast for a 2.7pc decline in 2011, and roughly match forecasts by National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) that "real" house prices, after accounting for inflation, would still be at 2003 levels in 2015" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8251318/House-prices-to-fall-to-2004-levels.html ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- They mean 2000 Prices then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
singlemalt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 why are the media and posters so obsessed with forecasts from institutions that couldn't forecast tomorrow's weather if they had the met office on the phone? +1 The average person on this forum has more of a grasp of economics than many of these so called economists. It's almost comical how they simply parrot whatever appears to be the prevailing direction of the argument on that particular day. I'm only interested in hard facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is your timeframe for buying, guys... 2, 3 years time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 They've always got SOME weasly comment, huh? The bit about lower prices stopping people from putting places on the market, helping to even things out. TRIPE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The newspapers may be useless but they're going to scare people and that can only be good for HPC. I loathe the comments on these articles about doom-mongering - it was ok on the way up though, was it? Oh and I agree - 2004 prices still way too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh and I agree - 2004 prices still way too high. +1 They were always going to fall by at least that much. 1998 prices is the time to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fawkandles Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is your timeframe for buying, guys... 2, 3 years time? I think we can safely say this market moves so slowly that picking a good buy-in price should be easy. Just be patient, have a hefty deposit ready, and be sure you can prove income etc. I'm in no rush, but would guess about 18 months yet before things look affordable imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My rent is currently 35% of an I/O mortgage on the property I live in (assuming a decent deposit). When that changes I might think about buying again, but I certainly won't be going near property again until interest rates are 'normal' again. Buckers Spot on and same situation for me. Just the interest on a mortgage on the house I live in would be more than double of what I pay in rent. It makes no sense at all. Needless to say, my landlord is scared shitless, and will have to fork out a few grand to repair all gutters which were damaged by the snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The newspapers may be useless but they're going to scare people and that can only be good for HPC. I loathe the comments on these articles about doom-mongering - it was ok on the way up though, was it? Oh and I agree - 2004 prices still way too high. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Prices at 2004 levels are nothing to get excited about because even back then they were insanely high. In 2004 a mid-terrace in a town in the south I monitor would sell at 140k. In 2007 maybe 190k. The problem we have is that the house was worth no more than 75k in 2004, and not much more today. Going back to 2004 prices is not good enough by a long chalk. Totally agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonSense Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well everyone can either wait for the crash or make the crash happen, I bought in Oct 2008 for 25% off asking price, borrowed 3.5 times my one income (excluding O/T bonus) popped down 20% deposit that was saved during renting a lovely dump (honestly I loved the place) with no heating/carpets etc. The house (3 bed semi off road parking etc) I bought was 165,500 (original price) to 122,500 (sold to me price). Got 25 year repayment. The chronology of the transaction does not matter, the price is what matters. Back in my part of the country back at market top, there were 15 sellers for every buyer. That's pretty much carte blance to do offer what the hell you want. Never pay over the odds. Never buy stuff you don't need. If you need it, save for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superted187 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CALM DOWN DEAR, IT'S JUST SPECULATION Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superted187 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 (edited) CALM DOWN DEAR, IT'S JUST SPECULATION Seriously I think some posters are getting a bit over excited about this. It is after all, a prediction. One that sounds like the predictions we were hearing in 2009. Edited January 11, 2011 by Superted187 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fdk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 why are the media and posters so obsessed with forecasts from institutions that couldn't forecast tomorrow's weather if they had the met office on the phone? Sentiment ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fdk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Half the banks have already been 'brought down' their existence is just an extended illusion brought to by HMG sooner or later they will disappear, it's inevitable. take steps to protect yourself and your family The entire banking industry including the fiat currentcy system, has ALWAYS been an illusion - from the outset... :angry: Greed has blinded people to the whole charade. Those that know just play the game, as we can't physically exist outside of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fflump Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seriously I think some posters are getting a bit over excited about this. It is after all, a prediction. One that sounds like the predictions we were hearing in 2009. +1 reading this thread I may have to go out and buy shares in Kleenex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fdk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 +1 reading this thread I may have to go out and buy shares in Kleenex. It's all about Sentiment - how people (including journalists, economists etc.) FEEL about house prices.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wealthy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I paid the lowest in the my street and area (within half a mile) for my style of house since 2003 you have it the wrong way around, we should be celebrating the breaking of ceiling prices in areas ala krusty and phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wealthy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CALM DOWN DEAR, IT'S JUST SPECULATION Seriously I think some posters are getting a bit over excited about this. It is after all, a prediction. One that sounds like the predictions we were hearing in 2009. No, it sounds like the predictions we were hearing in 2001/2/3/4/5/6/7, just the other way around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 All this media gloom might start fan the flames and cause a much bigger fall. A couple of interest rate increases will cause the beast to gain real momentum. Unemployment may rival US levels the way things are going. I wouldn't buy a property in Britain even with a 15% discount at the moment. When do you decide to catch a falling knife? 20%? 30%? In California they've had over 50% falls in some places and it's only just bottoming out. Fancy that! At some point you have to make the decision to jump on. 20% seems very reasonable to me as we are still a fair bit below the peaks of 2007. I really hope we get some solid moves down in 2011 and I will look to move this time next year. California is probably not a great comparator as it really became insane. There is so much land available that there was an inexhaustible supply of land to build houses on. As the price of land did not increase much, and nor did the cost of building a house, the bubble really was insane. Our situation is much closer to Japan's - a fairly crowded island and booming economy leading to a debt-fuelled property bubble. All the same, land prices there have pretty much halved in Japan over the last 20 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekking Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is your timeframe for buying, guys... 2, 3 years time? Yes, at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wealthy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Our situation is much closer to Japan's - a fairly crowded island and booming economy leading to a debt-fuelled property bubble. All the same, land prices there have pretty much halved in Japan over the last 20 years. Yep, and the reason they halved is because people got poorer Same as here. Doesn't matter about the lack of land, only how much people can pay for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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