TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 (edited) After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall. I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%. Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant. Anything negative will bed in the real recovery. Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly. Fingers crossed for a fall. Edited November 2, 2010 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall. I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%. Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant. Anything negative will bed in the real recovery. Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly. Fingers crossed for a fall. Forex showing +0.4%. Personally I think half the 3.6% drop is catch up with the more reliable Nationwide after months of divergence, a quarter is this months downward variance and a quarter is the underlying -0.9% actual HPC. So 0% this month would bring Halifax into line, approximately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I think it is inevitable that the Halifax will be up simply because last month was so negative - a bounce. So few houses are sold now anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lepista Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 There's only one way it's going now... and that's down, baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 (edited) So 0% this month would bring Halifax into line, approximately 0% doesn't exist (well it does, but you know what I mean) headlines are needed and "sorry, nothing happened" isn't news. Even 0.001% will be reported. Being in a predictive mood, and given it's SOLD prices, not asking prices, I'll say -0.4% Edited November 2, 2010 by exiges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall. I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%. Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant. Anything negative will bed in the real recovery. Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly. Fingers crossed for a fall. -3.6% was too much, it will "bounce back" due to random statistical noise. Solid -0.8% for 3 months (e.g.) would have been better. Trend is your friend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lepista Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Solid 5% per month for 3 months would have been better. What was the average MoM fall in the bear run of 2008? it was certainly average more than 1.5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 -1.2% Embrace the trend, its your best friend. BTW $1374 anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 -3.6% was too much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveat Mortgagor Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Forex showing +0.4%. For the last 3 months Forex has failed to even correctly predict a positive or negative movement, it makes me laugh that they try to estimate the magnitude as well. Pure finger in the air work from them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 (edited) -3.6% was too much, it will "bounce back" due to random statistical noise. -3.6 % was only too much if the next few months is less negative Edited November 2, 2010 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnjc Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 (edited) After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall. I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%. Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant. Anything negative will bed in the real recovery. Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly. Fingers crossed for a fall. if there is another big fall i wonder what public reaction will be. 7 is not what i have seen locally over last few months. more like 3. but the low volumes could throw anything up. -2 for me Edited November 2, 2010 by dnjc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSG Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 if there is another big fall i wonder what public reaction will be. 7 is not what i have seen locally over last few months. more like 3. but the low volumes could throw anything up. -2 for me -3.9 for me +2 for me. Volumes are so small stats will be all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I can't imagine another big fall. Much as I would like it to be otherwise it would be very, very noticeable if that had been happening. A small one, say -0.2 or -0.3 would be good enough for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kropotkin Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 +3.5% to even things up a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Monger Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 - 3.1% for me...which they will paint as a positive thing by saying that the rate of decline has slowed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Has it been a month already? Where is the time going... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giordano Bruno Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall. I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%. Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant. Anything negative will bed in the real recovery. Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly. Fingers crossed for a fall. Anything lower than a rise of 3.6% will still be good news, imo. Because it means that over the last two months there is still a fall. Two steps forward and one step back is still good. In fact, even two steps forward and two steps back still undermines the notion that property only ever goes up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I'm predicting a YOY fall this month. About -1.5% should do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 +1.2% on VERY thin volumes. The few people buying with mortgages are fools anyway who dont care what they pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 +1.2% on VERY thin volumes. The few people buying with mortgages are fools anyway who dont care what they pay. But the banks might care what they pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I'm predicting a YOY fall this month. About -1.5% should do it. I maybe wrong, but I think -1.1% should be enough to achieve a negative YoY. We can hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I know of a couple about to buy a house for the full 280K asking price - it last sold circa 2007 for 220K. A friend even went and checked on houseprices, showed them the last sold price but the IMPO numpties still intend to buy. They appear to have not checked the general housing market let alone the local market, are buying via an EA who other EAs have told me over-values, in their view, by a good 20%... but this couple is still intent on buying. They have saved for years, built up a deposit but appear happy to throw it all away now to get on the ladder. How many people like these are still out there? This is why I think the Halifax will show a rise - people like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I maybe wrong, but I think -1.1% should be enough to achieve a negative YoY. We can hope. You are probably right. I just did a rough guess from the 1.2% rise in Oct 2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxy Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 I maybe wrong, but I think -1.1% should be enough to achieve a negative YoY. We can hope. That would be sublime. I fear low volume could scupper the chances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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