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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by WSG

  1. Nutella is ok ... but its no Biscoff
  2. Congratulations..you've just invented the bicycle. Probably the most efficient urban transport there is. Pollution free, efficient space user, simple enough to be operated by a child of 8 and it makes the user healthier saving the taxpayer billions. Bicycles are the real future of urban transport.
  3. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/13/landlords-should-be-squealing-under-george-osbornes-crackdown-tr/ Squeal piggy squeal!!! Tories have realised tenants don't vote Tory........
  4. yes they are less accurate much of the time than shorter range forecasts, but that doesnt mean you cant get good info or make decisons on the basis of them. For example given the initial conditions are the overriding problem then rerunning weather forecast models with initial conditions that are randomly different for some parameters will give you a good indication of just how sensitive in a particular situation the model is to initial conditions. This is called ensemble forecasting - it may not be able to tell you if it will rain in 10 days time in Newcastle, but it may be able to tell you if you will be likley to be able to safely tow a 20million dollar oil platform across the North Sea from Invergordon to Rotterdam. cliches like "they cant tell us what the weather will be like tomorrow so climate models are crap" is just lazy, utterly ignorant prejuidice with no understanding whatsoever of any of the concepts involved in either subject.
  5. What models in the 1990 s were predicting armegeddon by 2015? Most climate models have very very similar results all the way back to the 19th Century. ThIs similarity is one thing that gives us high confidence in their outputs. Don't confuse weather forecasts with climate modelling. Weather forecasts are far more sensitive to initial conditions, so errors in initial condition propogate fast. Weather forecasts are like trying to predict what number will be thrown by the dice next. Climate modelling is more like trying to Judge whether or not a dice is weighted, then predicting the long run mean of all the throws. A different problem, not nearly as dependent on initial condition errors. Btw 10 day forecasts are incredibly inaccurate? ..... Well I reckon in 10 days time our weather pattern in Uk will still be pretty much under the influence of the big old high pressure area that's currently sitting over us..it won't have gone far. Under some circumstances it is very easy to predict some aspects of the weather 10/15/20 days out. Take your head out of your **** and learn about something before you start criticising it.
  6. anomalous to your baseline climate.(generally the average temperatures over a 30 year reference period) So a warm anomaly would be temperatures are warmer than average climate over the baseline climate, similarly a cold anomaly would be coolernthan baseline climate.
  7. It completely shutting down is extremely unlikely, meltwater levels from greenland aren't anything like the volume of freshwater from Lake Agassiz. the climate models predicted the current situation with warm anomalies everywhere else, and a cold anomaly in the middle of the North Atlantic, its not a great leap of faith then to use them as a guide. Which climate models are "ropey"?
  8. there's a decent piece on the "blob" here from earlier in the year, by a proper scientist http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/ It's a bit different to the the catastrophic Lake Agassiz outburst flood that is thought to have caused the Ice readvance across UK at the end of the last Ice Age. It could get a bit stormier though.
  9. I don't think it's outlandish to envisage some form of HTB subsidy introduced for those who are renting and their landlord gets repoessessed, in order to allow them to buy the property they were renting off a landlord and are now renting off a bank/reciever. It'll help the banks, and slow price discovery.
  10. The Wales Landlord registration scheme is recruiting staff at the moment. Goes live in Autumn apparently - all landlords to be registered and licensed. Official website here https://www.rentsmart.gov.wales/en/ A nice landlord (And agent) database being built by the authorities.
  11. Can't believe this would be remotely legal...just end up spending an ever diminshing pot of local authority cash on lawyers.
  12. Cycles... Fast, cheap, pollutionfree urban transport for everyone. Build quality segregated cycle infrastructure to make the city function. Even New York is doing it.
  13. Is this not cos Putin is likely to shut off the taps this winter unless he gets his way
  14. I know what Basil Brush would say Mind Basil has been quiet since Yewtree
  15. Not sure the teachers will find work in the state sector..they possibly won't be qualified.
  16. Most people who watch TV in uk have no idea what a ponzi scheme is.
  17. Interesting hypothesis from op. I believe some areas (old coalfields?) are stamp duty exempt..is there evidence of different behaviour in those areas?
  18. Last night on newsnight was the first time I have ever heard mainstream TV programme...nay any TV program explain clearly that as prices rise the rungs on 'the ladder' become further apart and it becomes more expensive for people trading up.
  19. Yes...availability of bikes is not what stops people cycling. Every kid has a bike...almost none of them use it to go to school, scouts, or pop round to their mates.
  20. Sustrans strike me as a disfunctional organisation. They have been singularly unsuccessful in getting people to walk and cycle more, and have managed to to get pisspoor and frankly dangerous infrastructure accepted as something local authorities should aspire to emulate. I hate them - they are an enemy of cycling.
  21. American on 5 live this morning was Adam Posen. He was putting the boot into H2B as Tulip says up there. Wake up to money seems to be quite different to other BBC output.
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