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TheCountOfNowhere

Thursday - Halifax Hp Data Out ?

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After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall.

I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%.

Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant.

Anything negative will bed in the real recovery.

Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly.

Fingers crossed for a fall.

:ph34r:

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall.

I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%.

Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant.

Anything negative will bed in the real recovery.

Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly.

Fingers crossed for a fall.

:ph34r:

Forex showing +0.4%. Personally I think half the 3.6% drop is catch up with the more reliable Nationwide after months of divergence, a quarter is this months downward variance and a quarter is the underlying -0.9% actual HPC. So 0% this month would bring Halifax into line, approximately

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So 0% this month would bring Halifax into line, approximately

0% doesn't exist (well it does, but you know what I mean) headlines are needed and "sorry, nothing happened" isn't news.

Even 0.001% will be reported.

Being in a predictive mood, and given it's SOLD prices, not asking prices, I'll say -0.4%

Edited by exiges

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After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall.

I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%.

Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant.

Anything negative will bed in the real recovery.

Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly.

Fingers crossed for a fall.

:ph34r:

-3.6% was too much, it will "bounce back" due to random statistical noise.

Solid -0.8% for 3 months (e.g.) would have been better. Trend is your friend

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Solid 5% per month for 3 months would have been better.

What was the average MoM fall in the bear run of 2008? it was certainly average more than 1.5%.

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-3.6% was too much, it will "bounce back" due to random statistical noise.

-3.6 % was only too much if the next few months is less negative :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall.

I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%.

Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant.

Anything negative will bed in the real recovery.

Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly.

Fingers crossed for a fall.

:ph34r:

if there is another big fall i wonder what public reaction will be. 7 is not what i have seen locally over last few months. more like 3. but the low volumes could throw anything up.

-2 for me

Edited by dnjc

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if there is another big fall i wonder what public reaction will be. 7 is not what i have seen locally over last few months. more like 3. but the low volumes could throw anything up.

-2 for me

-3.9 for me

+2 for me. Volumes are so small stats will be all over the place.

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I can't imagine another big fall. Much as I would like it to be otherwise it would be very, very noticeable if that had been happening. A small one, say -0.2 or -0.3 would be good enough for now.

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After last months historic Halifax 3.6% drop ( a mini house price crash in itself ) I don't think many people will be expecting another fall.

I think I do expect another fall, maybe a modest 0.5%.

Anything substantially positive will be lorded over us and used to say last moths fall was irrelevant.

Anything negative will bed in the real recovery.

Maybe if mortgage lending really has fallen to record lows then the stats will swing wildly.

Fingers crossed for a fall.

:ph34r:

Anything lower than a rise of 3.6% will still be good news, imo. Because it means that over the last two months there is still a fall. Two steps forward and one step back is still good. In fact, even two steps forward and two steps back still undermines the notion that property only ever goes up.

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+1.2% on VERY thin volumes.

The few people buying with mortgages are fools anyway who dont care what they pay.

But the banks might care what they pay.

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I'm predicting a YOY fall this month. About -1.5% should do it.

I maybe wrong, but I think -1.1% should be enough to achieve a negative YoY.

We can hope.

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I know of a couple about to buy a house for the full 280K asking price - it last sold circa 2007 for 220K.

A friend even went and checked on houseprices, showed them the last sold price but the IMPO numpties still intend to buy.

They appear to have not checked the general housing market let alone the local market, are buying via an EA who other EAs have told me over-values, in their view, by a good 20%... but this couple is still intent on buying.

They have saved for years, built up a deposit but appear happy to throw it all away now to get on the ladder.

How many people like these are still out there?

This is why I think the Halifax will show a rise - people like this.

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I maybe wrong, but I think -1.1% should be enough to achieve a negative YoY.

We can hope.

You are probably right. I just did a rough guess from the 1.2% rise in Oct 2009.

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I maybe wrong, but I think -1.1% should be enough to achieve a negative YoY.

We can hope.

That would be sublime. I fear low volume could scupper the chances :(

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  • 153 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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