The Day Media Spin Went Into Reverse

[tennaval]

poetry ................pure poetry

BBC - House prices: Surveyors expect property prices to fall

Telegraph - Home sellers hit 3-year high 2 hrs ago

Guardian.co.uk - Property demand falls as supply rises, says Rics report 2 hrs ago

Mail Online UK - The house price slump may last a decade, say experts in unprecedented warning to homeowners 3 hrs ago

Press Association - Further house price falls predicted 7 hrs ago

Reuters - UK House price balance hits 11-month low in June 8 hrs ago

[LuckyOne]

poetry ................pure poetry

BBC - House prices: Surveyors expect property prices to fall

Telegraph - Home sellers hit 3-year high 2 hrs ago

Guardian.co.uk - Property demand falls as supply rises, says Rics report 2 hrs ago

Mail Online UK - The house price slump may last a decade, say experts in unprecedented warning to homeowners 3 hrs ago

Press Association - Further house price falls predicted 7 hrs ago

Reuters - UK House price balance hits 11-month low in June 8 hrs ago

Like any Black Xxxxday thread, does this mean that house prices are now going to shoot higher?

[thecrashingisles]

Mail Online UK - The house price slump may last a decade, say experts in unprecedented warning to homeowners

They should have said, "You have a decade to trade up cheaply, say experts in unprecedented good news for homeowners"

[Timm]

Like any Black Xxxxday thread, does this mean that house prices are now going to shoot higher?

A BlackDay thread is started by some nutter on a forum.

What you are seeing today is the BearWave*, a concerted move by the main stream media.

*© some nutter on a forum

[AteMoose]

This morning BBC news announced that houseprices were expected to fall until 2020 in real terms. Its a huge buy signal...

[Deckard]

What you are seeing today is the BearWave*, a concerted move by the main stream media.

Yeah, baby - say hello to the BEARWAVE !!!!

A warning to all bulls & VIs: you better beware

[LuckyOne]

A BlackDay thread is started by some nutter on a forum.

What you are seeing today is the BearWave*, a concerted move by the main stream media.

*© some nutter on a forum

My comment was very tongue in cheek.

I expect that BearWave will become part of the HPC lexicon. Very clever.

To be a bit cynical, do you think that parts of the media are trying to create an enivironment where house prices will drop so that they can blame the Coalition for the carnage as "house prices did ever so well under Labour".

Will Labour's next slogan be something like : "Vote Labour, we can make you richer through HPI"?

[Ologhai Jones]

What you are seeing today is the BearWave*, a concerted move by the main stream media.

Yep, I think the BearWave (as a term) has got legs.

And to think, I will be able to say to my grandchildren that I was there when the BearWave began (not to mention being there when Timm coined the phrase!)

My life is now complete!

[Pent Up]

We now have a very powerful new ally.

[huw]

This morning BBC news announced that houseprices were expected to fall until 2020 in real terms. Its a huge buy signal...

... just not for houses, maybe

(how will the real value of bank deposits perform over the period in question?)

[darwin]

poetry ................pure poetry

BBC - House prices: Surveyors expect property prices to fall

Telegraph - Home sellers hit 3-year high 2 hrs ago

Guardian.co.uk - Property demand falls as supply rises, says Rics report 2 hrs ago

Mail Online UK - The house price slump may last a decade, say experts in unprecedented warning to homeowners 3 hrs ago

Press Association - Further house price falls predicted 7 hrs ago

Reuters - UK House price balance hits 11-month low in June 8 hrs ago

Well it's about time.

[Tired of Waiting]

A warning to all bulls & VIs: you better beware

A bear waves.

[Realistbear]

Having been given notice to move by our LL I was starting to dip a toe into the buying phase and have quickly withdrawn it again today. I must admit, I was beginning to wonder when the next phase was going to kick in. Rents around here are going up (1200 for a small 3BR) because fewer people want to buy. A couple of friends have offered us a place to rent inexpensively so we will hole up and get ready to pounce, maybe in the dead of winter next year if we have 20% down from here by then.

Another one for the list from MW:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/british-house-prices-are-heading-for-a-double-dip-02807.aspx

Here comes the next phase of the UK housing bust

By MoneyWeek Editor John Stepek Jul 13, 2010

Sellers are returning to the market in droves

But the number of buyers is drying up

The FSA is getting tough on the home-loan market

[NEO72]

This could be a key tipping point of the hpc. Think what a strong motivator 'mustn't miss the boat' is-msm news like this reverses the effect and once the momentum builds...

And this time the powers that be have very little left in the armoury to intervene with.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Guys, we are all be manipulated by the press and low interest rate VIs.

The current run of bear food is all about keep interest rates low. 

"Whoopie, they announced inflation fell today, down from 3.4% to 3.2% in the CPI. We mustn't rush into interest rate rises as clearly inflation is under control and the economy is still fragile."

In reality inflation is actually  higher than stated, but the VIs still want their expansionist feast. I personally reckon house prices have basically stalled, but won't be going down much in nominal terms, instead everything else will rise. The alternative is more bank bailouts as more people default on their mortgages and I can't see the Government thinking that a popular policy.

My gut feeling, they'll talk tough, slash a lot of public spending, but keep the city pumped with liquidity.

[Tired of Waiting]

Guys, we are all be manipulated by the press and low interest rate VIs.

The current run of bear food is all about keep interest rates low. 

"Whoopie, they announced inflation fell today, down from 3.4% to 3.2% in the CPI. We mustn't rush into interest rate rises as clearly inflation is under control and the economy is still fragile."

In reality inflation is actually  higher than stated, but the VIs still want their expansionist feast. I personally reckon house prices have basically stalled, but won't be going down much in nominal terms, instead everything else will rise. The alternative is more bank bailouts as more people default on their mortgages and I can't see the Government thinking that a popular policy.

My gut feeling, they'll talk tough, slash a lot of public spending, but keep the city pumped with liquidity.

I agree that some VIs are lobbying for low IRs. Nevertheless, HPs will fall. Look at this:

[Pole]

What a beautiful sight!!!

[spiney]

Guys,

The Bearwave has been all over the BBC local radio station today (radio WM).

Interviews with EA's and surveyors this morning all prdicting falls.

On the news every half hour, it will be intersting to see if they run with it on the local tv news this evening?

Its coming!

Spiney.

[lulu]

poetry ................pure poetry

BBC - House prices: Surveyors expect property prices to fall

Telegraph - Home sellers hit 3-year high 2 hrs ago

Guardian.co.uk - Property demand falls as supply rises, says Rics report 2 hrs ago

Mail Online UK - The house price slump may last a decade, say experts in unprecedented warning to homeowners 3 hrs ago

Press Association - Further house price falls predicted 7 hrs ago

Reuters - UK House price balance hits 11-month low in June 8 hrs ago

But how long do you give it until the Daily Diana has a frontpage to counter all this 'doom mongering'? Until the tabloids get involved and the braindead masses start to rush for the exists I expect the standoff to continue.

[LuckyOne]

But how long do you give it until the Daily Diana has a frontpage to counter all this 'doom mongering'? Until the tabloids get involved and the braindead masses start to rush for the exists I expect the standoff to continue.

Well, it's a small start.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/3046597/House-prices-drop-36-a-day.html

[Pent Up]

Guys, we are all be manipulated by the press and low interest rate VIs.

The current run of bear food is all about keep interest rates low. 

"Whoopie, they announced inflation fell today, down from 3.4% to 3.2% in the CPI. We mustn't rush into interest rate rises as clearly inflation is under control and the economy is still fragile."

In reality inflation is actually  higher than stated, but the VIs still want their expansionist feast. I personally reckon house prices have basically stalled, but won't be going down much in nominal terms, instead everything else will rise. The alternative is more bank bailouts as more people default on their mortgages and I can't see the Government thinking that a popular policy.

My gut feeling, they'll talk tough, slash a lot of public spending, but keep the city pumped with liquidity.

I don't buy into the conspiracy theories of government manipulating the media for it's own ends. IMO it's just sensationalism. When prices are rising slightly it's exaggerated into booming! Because it's not news otherwise. Likewise now we are starting to see falls you can't print a story with the headline 'house prices rise slightly, expected to fall slightly' it has to be exaggerated into what we are seeing today. Excellent news for us as it should push a faltering sentiment off a cliff and aid our cause no end.

[Pent Up]

I agree that some VIs are lobbying for low IRs. Nevertheless, HPs will fall. Look at this:

That's a pretty sight. I'd like to see the one with halifax overlaid with the latestest figures....

[Tired of Waiting]

That's a pretty sight. I'd like to see the one with halifax overlaid with the latestest figures....

There are a couple of them in the pinned Charts thread. It takes a few minutes to find them though. (Sorry, I'm busy now.)

[Muskoka]

Soon as I walked in from work this evening, Sky News were saying we're heading for a double dip...........

Here we go................hopefully

[TTID]

Like any Black Xxxxday thread, does this mean that house prices are now going to shoot higher?

Not with houses. The contrarian news indicator exists in the securities markets because the professionals making the market are the same people making the news. They rely on retail numpties to be taken in by the news, so that the pros can get themselves positioned for the counter move at better prices.

Doesn't work in housing, because the retail numpties are the market.

When Joe Public catches a panic attack on the stock market, he sells to an institution at the bottom of the market.

In the housing market, the news is positively correlated with the market, if a little lagged. In this way, the news is positive going into the top, with a short period of contrary indication (back to normal preceding the peak, for instance). As we saw in 2007, however, once the top is in, the negative comments in the media don't prompt the public to sell to eager institutional buyers. The potential buyers are other panicked retail numpties.

This makeup of the housing market, where it is predominantly made of retail participants, is what separates it from other traded markets.

If you were to separate the residential properties that were commercially owned, you might see a more traditional contrarian response, as in 2006, when the pro money left the market, while the news continued to furiously ramp the market for a good 18 months after.