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House Price Crash Forum


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About TTID

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  1. Did you sell them already? Because it's not a profit until you close the trade.
  2. Neverwhere: I agree with all that you have written. I'm not expecting BTL to continue in its existing form. By 'fixed Buy to Let' I meant 'made Buy to Let go away, from the point of view of the priced out.' If LLs prompt the builders to produce poor quality homes for rental purposes, they'll get stung when they try to sell them on into the OO market. These new builds can only be rented out by their first owners. After that, their attractiveness to a LL is no longer an issue.
  3. Sellers of dates? I knew someone who used to get paid for dates.
  4. goldbug9999 and bankstersparadise: Paragraph 4 of the OP, first sentence. Licences are not transferrable. LLs who want to stay LLs have to hold on to their licenced homes. If they sell, they're not licenced homes any more, so other LLs can't buy them. Edit: Arguably paragraph 5.
  5. porca miseria: Accidental landlords would come under the what-ifs that I mentioned, with enough rules to avoid abuse.
  6. How about removing props as well as tackling the consequences of said props...? Edit: I don't seem to be able to quote.
  7. The problem of OOs having to compete with LLs in the housing market, combined with the low rate of building new homes can both be fixed with a very simple measure. All homes (not student or other short term accommodation) in the PRS would be under a licencing system. No new licences would be issued, except for new build homes. Done. Investment funds for residential homes go entirely to fund new build, generating increased build rates. OOs don't have to compete with LLs for non new-build homes, increasing owner occupation, with more reasonable prices. Another result, if LLs want to cash i
  8. The principal problem with this piece is the implied assumption that this unemployed single mother somehow has a right to own a home and it's the taxpayer's responsibility to provide that. In the old days, she would have been a prime candidate for housing benefit in rented accommodation. Life is about to remind the UK about consequences, in a big way. A lesson that is long overdue. She's bleating about a situation that has come about entirely because of a series of her own choices, starting with the choice to increase the distance between her knees. Why am I paying taxes to keep her in a
  9. Although I broadly agree with your general sentiments, this is not a good example. The Italians were specialist oil industry construction contractors, working on a brown field installation, not maintenance workers, stealing jobs from local tradesmen. North Lincolnshire has no standing pool of experienced or qualified oil bears, who could provide the services required for this project. This is just the same as when we go to Qatar and Kazakhstan to build new oil and gas installations that the locals lack the specialist expertise to achieve. I laughed at the local guys at Lindsey Oil talking
  10. This is an illusion. The functioning of the economic system requires the almost universal belief in this illusion, but it is an illusion. Money has no fundamental value, in itself. £10 is an idea. It works because it's an idea that is commonly shared. It's not real. Me having £10 doesn't mean anything other than that for a short while I can get away with swapping that £10 for whatever someone else is fool enough to give me for it. Money is not wealth. Money is a tool, a lubricant, in the production and exchange of wealth. Of course, wealth generation requries land, but it requires h
  11. The fundamental nature of money is in its capacity to be exchanged for stuff. If there is more money, but no more stuff, that's inflation. If there's more stuff, but no more money, that's deflation. The above argument is founded on the assumption that stuff is a constant, so any gain on one part must imply a loss on another. This ignores the existence of a constantly renewing supply of stuff - human time. Human time is the fountain from which wealth flows. I first learned of this in the writings of Taichi Ohno, one of the founders of the Toyota Production System. In this, he observed
  12. We've been renting a lovely house for three years, now. We clear all of our plans with the landlord in writing, via the letting agents. So far, we have dug out an ornate fish pond from the garden, for our children's safety, demolished an extensive rabbit hutch from behind the garage and installed wrought iron hooks to support tapestries that we use instead of curtains. He thought that the last one was a particularly tasteful idea. We have authorisation to further: decorate, as we see fit, so long as there are no garish colours (he's seen our taste in furnishings, so I think that he's hopin
  13. Not with houses. The contrarian news indicator exists in the securities markets because the professionals making the market are the same people making the news. They rely on retail numpties to be taken in by the news, so that the pros can get themselves positioned for the counter move at better prices. Doesn't work in housing, because the retail numpties are the market. When Joe Public catches a panic attack on the stock market, he sells to an institution at the bottom of the market. In the housing market, the news is positively correlated with the market, if a little lagged. In this way
  14. Following the initial decline in house price indices, we had our 'told you so' party, but then things quietened down here for a while. The crash had arrived, as predicted and debate died away, as there was no longer any question about the potential of HPC. Discussion then turned to why this site went so quiet. I remarked at the time that it was because the issue under debate had been settled by events. During the government engineered, pre election house price rally, the bulls politely re-emerged to declare that the crash had failed to materialise, that things were getting back to normal a
  15. We see a lot of opinion from bulls, trying to suggest that the previous decline was the crash and that the recent rally is destined to head back to the sky. This market has taken exactly the form predicted by the 'shape of a bubble' graph. The rally has stalled before taking out the previous high and is building out a lower high. What follows, as the bears expected, is the real crash.
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