It's All Over Guys - Time To Call It A Day

[Alfie Moon]

I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

You are forgetting 2 things -

1) the ongoing collapse in the number of completed property sales

2) house prices crashes always have periods of house price rises that get people excited that the crash is over but then house price falls resume.

in regard 1) take Worcester as an example (although you find the same pattern of property sales collapse across the UK). Using Land Registry data (the most reliable data available), for Worcester you find the number of successful property sales over the past few years are as follows:

Totals for Worcester:

2009 = 448 (so far up to end of June, heading for 896 approx by year end)

2008 = 1180

2007 = 2179

2006 = 2690

In regrads 2):

During the first 84 months of the 1990s crash there were 33 months that recorded a zero or positive growth in house prices. Yes, 33 months!!!! The year with the largest fall in house prices, in the 1990s crash, did not occur until the 3rd year of the crash. During the first 19 months of the 1990s crash there were only -4.1% of price falls. The current house price crash saw -21% house price falls in the first 19 months. Compared to previous UK house price crashes, including the 1990s one, the current house price crash is massive in scale and breathtaking in speed. However in the 1990s house price crash there was a solid 5 month period of consequtive prices rises that made people think the crash was over, that house prices had returned but then 2 and half years of further house price falls occurred.

[Si1]

But for the record, I also believe that things won't crash to nothing. It has always amused me how people joked when the "sheeple" thought HPI would be infinite yet some of this herd seem to think that the economy will shrink to nothing.

sorry but what the f*** are you on about?

[Bloo Loo]

If you think we have more than 5% to fall you should put your money where your mouth is and best on the property futures market

paper houses...how quaint.

and xcojo: the chinaman who argued a further .9% fall in GDP was a rise.

trolls ich nicht not fer der feedin ov.

Edited September 18, 2009 by Bloo Loo

[athom]

I hope you are right actually but I have 2 worries at the moment....I don't know if you understand what they mean?

Oh come on! You've just made them up because you like gloom. Admit it!

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

paper houses...how quaint.

Why would you turn down free money?

[Bloo Loo]

Why would you turn down free money?

how can it be free money...its all been priced in Im told.

[Minos]

paper houses...how quaint.

and xcojo: the chinaman who argued a further .9% fall in GDP was a rise.

trolls ich nicht not fer der feedin ov.

I didn't know you woz a bleedin Kraut.

[bb7t6]

sorry but what the f*** are you on about?

Could be referring to the 90% club (renterbob et al), not seen any sign of them for a few months though.

[Bloo Loo]

I didn't know you woz a bleedin Kraut.

....heres a pic...a chinese Kraut. mine leebling.

[interestrateripoff]

Thank god the debt has gone away.

[Guest Parry aka GOD]

Crash happened last year. If you price UK houses in any currency other than Pounds Sterling.

[Bloo Loo]

Thank god the debt has gone away.

Hermans Hermits:

No crash today cos the debt has gone away,

my house is going up

my cash has gone to town.

[MinceBalls]

+1

Can someone tell xcojo to stop using the Foxtons monthly e-newsletter as his only source of information.

During the first 84 months of the 1990s crash there were 33 months that recorded a zero or positive growth in house prices. Yes, 33 months!!!! The year with the largest fall in house prices, in the 1990s crash, did not occur until the 3rd year of the crash. During the first 19 months of the 1990s crash there were only -4.1% of price falls. The current house price crash saw -21% house price falls in the first 19 months. Compared to previous UK house price crashes, including the 1990s one, the current house price crash is massive in scale and breathtaking in speed. However in the 1990s house price crash there was a solid 5 month period of consequtive prices rises that made people think the crash was over, that house prices had returned but then 2 and half years of further house price falls occurred.

[Guest pioneer31]

I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

priced out of housing.

I like your definition of 'positive'

[tomwatkins]

I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

Talk this morning of going back to Mark to Market in the US which has generally been abandoned. If that happens then bank stocks are in freefall. I am short everything in the banking sector. Now If you don't think this will affect everything in the housing sector both sides of the pond then remain in your fantasy world. You have NEVER seen anything like a crash in the UK-you are playing at it. Wanna see a crash? Come over here and visit Vegas, California, Florida and even Rhode Island (where I am). We don't even care about house prices going up anymore, we accept 50% falls to the low but you know the best thing? We are NOT IN DENIAL like you and we have already had 35%. What's so special about the UK? Answer-nothing. It will come, trust me.

[MinceBalls]

Crash happened last year. If you price UK houses in any currency other than Pounds Sterling.

And of course they (foreigners) are all buying in the North, North East, Midlands, East Anglia, Wales. Oh wait. Anywhere OTHER than the South East? Isn't this argument just another Red Herring?

Edited September 18, 2009 by MinceBalls

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

how can it be free money...its all been priced in Im told.

Because people on here are adamant that we have further to fall, the markets disagree, so you have free money. Of course, the uber bears on here could be wrong, in which case it isn't free money.

[warpig]

TROLL

I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

[Guest Parry aka GOD]

And of course they are all buying in the North, North East, Midlands, East Anglia, Wales. Oh wait. Anywhere OTHER than the South East? Isn't this argument just another Red Herring?

I can't understand how a property can crash.

I mean it isn't moving anywhere. It can't fly. You can't drive the thing . . . or am I missing the point of this website?

Trailer parks are different and answer me this. Why is it trailer parks attract tornado's?

[Guest Parry aka GOD]

TROLL

No. ESTATE AGENT.

[US Citizen]

I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

Eddie Barzoon! Eddie Barzoon! Ha! I nursed him through two divorces, a cocaine rehab, and a pregnant receptionist. God's creature, right? God's special creature? Ha! And I've warned him, Kevin, I've warned him every step of the way. Watching him bounce around like a ing game, like a wind-up toy! Like 250 pounds of self-serving greed on wheels! The next thousand years is right around the corner, Kevin, and Eddie Barzoon--take a good look. Because he's the poster child for the next millennium! These people, it's no mystery where they come from. You sharpen the human appetite to the point where it could split atoms with its desire, you build egos the size of cathedrals, fiberopticly connect the world to every-eager-impulse, grease even the dullest dreams with these dollar-green gold-pla fantasies until every human becomes an aspiring emperor! Becomes his own God! Where can you go from there? And as for scrambling from one deal to the next, who's got his eye on the planet? As the air thickens, the water sours, even the bees honey takes on the metallic taste of radioactivity--and it just keeps coming! And it just keeps coming! Faster and faster! There's no chance to think, to prepare, it's `buy futures, sell futures' when there is no future!! We've got a runaway train, boy!! We've got a billion Eddie Barzoons all jogging into the future. Every one of them reading to fist- God's ex-planet, lick their fingers clean as they reach out with their pristine cybernetic keyboards to total up their billable hours!! And then it hits home! It's a little late in the game to buy out now!! Your belly's too full, your is sore, your eyes are bloodshot, and you're screaming for someone to help!! But guess what? There's no one there!! You're all alone, Eddie!! [mocking] You're God's special little creature!!

Maybe it's true. Maybe God threw the dice once too often. Maybe He let us all down.

[the primitive]

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Yes you're right. That's all, just unemployment.

Oh hang on, apart from:

* Record public sector debt

* Historically weak house sales

* Historically weak mortgage lending - which is still falling

* A record fall in lending to businesses this week

* Historically high deposits required to get a mortgage

* Manufacturing output still ~10% below the average for the last 10 years

* Massive impending government spending cuts in an economy hugely dependent on the public sector

* Record balance of payments deficit and a weakening currency

* Massive public sector pension liabilities

* Significant reversal of mass immigration from Eastern Europe

* Persistent absence of wholesale mortgage market funding

* Interest rates which have only one way to go - up

In fact, literally all that YOU have is some pre-election desperate ramping sentiment, some Daily Mail headlines and a few cash rich buyers panicked into making life-changingly poor decisions.

This is a dead cat bounce. Enjoy it while it lasts!

[interestrateripoff]

I did. Yeah, kinda addictve isn't it. I'm trying to think positive. Thinking of changing my avatar.

Say to yourself every morning,

Today is going to be a great day.

I can handle more than I can think.

Worry does not solve problems.

Doing my best will satisfy me.

There will always be something to be happy.

I am going to make someone happy today.

It is not good to feel low.

Life is beautiful and I am going to make the most of it.

I hope you feel more positive now amongst this jobless recovery.

[SMAC67]

Every newly redundant ex-employee is simply a potential BTL landlord and/or property developer. It's going to be fantastic, an economy totally built on selling each other houses, what can possibly go wrong?

[IWantItNow]

While I am certainly not a rampant bear believing 50% PTT falls will occur.. I do think it's a little rash to call it as all over at this stage.

Personally I do think the market has now taken a different tack to that in the last correction... a further severe leg down I feel is now as likely as house prices going into boom mode ( ie not likely) I think what we'll see is a mix of ups and downs for the next few years to run alongside still high unemployment levels, the drip drip of repossessions a weak recovery and ptoentially rising rates... I could see rates still perhaps another 15% down over the next three years before we start to see real rises.

In many ways it doesn't matter much as regardless of which route we take I still don't think priices will have pushed much beyond 2007 levels by 2015-7.

Absolutely. I always raise a chuckle when I see some poster armed with an abusive tongue and a tin foil hat predict 40% falls (see grumpy old man), however I'm sure that HPI is dead as you know it and its stagnation at best from here on in. Outside London (which is just a law unto itself) we're what 20% off peak prices? There's no sign of them increasing any time soon. This is still a result no?