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It's All Over Guys - Time To Call It A Day

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I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

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While I am certainly not a rampant bear believing 50% PTT falls will occur.. I do think it's a little rash to call it as all over at this stage.

Personally I do think the market has now taken a different tack to that in the last correction... a further severe leg down I feel is now as likely as house prices going into boom mode ( ie not likely) I think what we'll see is a mix of ups and downs for the next few years to run alongside still high unemployment levels, the drip drip of repossessions a weak recovery and ptoentially rising rates... I could see rates still perhaps another 15% down over the next three years before we start to see real rises.

In many ways it doesn't matter much as regardless of which route we take I still don't think priices will have pushed much beyond 2007 levels by 2015-7.

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You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future.

It's over.

I know what you mean. I've seen the polls too. Labour are dead in the water.

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I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway:

Clearly we're out of the woods now regarding any form of house price crash.

I've seen you desperately trying to find scraps of bad news and posting the links in here with obligatory comments suggesting something bad is about to happen, but it's time to face facts once and for all.

You all seem to have forgotten that house prices have been falling since November 2007, to March 2009. Seventeen months of losses and still you think there's more to come, a second crash of epic proportions is just around the corner.

Well it's not.

Posting forecasts, figures and predictions of catastrophe based on nothing more than events you've made up out of your own heads and opening admitting your actually 'pissed off' that the stock market has picked up makes you look like, in all honestly, like a bunch of malicious vultures.

You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work. They're all resting on their fat payouts before looking for work again. Firms aren't hiring yet because they can make more profit with the reduced overhead for a while, but that won't last. They'll start hiring again like mad when things pick up in a month or two to level they can't cope with. Some people are still being made redundant I accept, but these are people at the end of the chain (roofers who were finishing off the stuff that others started and still had gainful employment for while, for example). Meanwhile the foundation people who laid off first are starting up business again. So it goes on.

There will be no winter of discontent. No more HPC following seventeen months of crash.

It's over. Business as usual.

I get it, your a jurno on the Express! :lol:

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They're all resting on their fat payouts

People with fat payouts generaly don't bother signing on the dole, do they? So who are all these people putting in claims?

I suspect you are taking the tiny demographic to which you belong and extrapolating wildly.

The point about house prices is simple- the credit has gone away, and shows no sign of coming back- this is not a prediction, it is a verifiable fact. And without the support of easy credit house prices are not sustainable at their present level.

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I doubt this will allowed to be posted due to the 'regulation' that we're not allowed to post anything positive, but here goes anyway: House prices will rise forever and nobody but bankers, lizards and the most elite of the boomers will ever be able to afford one ever again. You lot of rent forever losers will lie in the gutter dreaming of a warm bed in your own home, or rent a damp room in a cellar from me if you are lucky.

Sounds quite gloomy to me...

Edit: Sorry if you're not Hamish. And for misquoting you.

Edited by Timm

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There are too many people in the right positions who want to see a return to normality as soon as, they won't get it that way but there will be a stabilisation of most markets, Oil has come off its lows, Natural Gas prices in the US are rising on demand, FTSE has broken 5000 and still rising, House prices are 20% lower than peak prices after some haggling.

The only bad news is unemployment rising and repossessions are still there in the background, but it seems the moment someone loses a house there is someone there happy enough to dive in and pick it up at a reduced price happy to pay 30% below peak at auction.

With unemployment there are job losses here and there but also news emerging of job creation, when has it been in the middle of a recession that supermarkets come out with statements that it will create 1000 new jobs, they know the way the market is heading and peoples buying habits more than anyone else.

Kingfisher ground yesterday very upbeat about sales and so are next, simples people are still spending.

If we get more bad news from the financial sector i.e. HBOS then I feel it will be drown out by some more promising news, it will be isolated and not cause the problems seen over the past couple of years.

Government borrowing 16bn but less than most analysts were expecting, cuts will come from the public sector but the private sector will then be on its way to recovery and so it may mean that the next 2-3 years will be very similar to this year as one sector recovers and another suffers.

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Next wave of banking losses are only around the corner. Much further to fall I´m afraid.

If you think we have more than 5% to fall you should put your money where your mouth is and best on the property futures market

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While I am certainly not a rampant bear believing 50% PTT falls will occur.. I do think it's a little rash to call it as all over at this stage.

Personally I do think the market has now taken a different tack to that in the last correction... a further severe leg down I feel is now as likely as house prices going into boom mode ( ie not likely) I think what we'll see is a mix of ups and downs for the next few years to run alongside still high unemployment levels, the drip drip of repossessions a weak recovery and ptoentially rising rates... I could see rates still perhaps another 15% down over the next three years before we start to see real rises.

In many ways it doesn't matter much as regardless of which route we take I still don't think priices will have pushed much beyond 2007 levels by 2015-7.

Yeah this. It's way too soon to call it over. The market could be literally anywhere at the moment. I'll only believe any price data I see when transaction volumes return to a normal level.

Remember in the 1989-1995 crash there were 26 up months in a 75 month downmove.

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I hope you are right actually but I have 2 worries at the moment....I don't know if you understand what they mean?

IMFresets.jpg

albert-edwards-pic-1.jpg

I don't, because it says U.S. on the diagram, and I can't recall whether Poodle Blair made us a state of the US.

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I agree that I would also not say it's over until we actually see the falls stop. It reminds me of everyone saying its all about to crash. Any day now. Definitely by 2004 we'll see a crash. OK we were wrong, but definitely by 2005, hmm, 2006?

In the same way that I said then, lets wait 'til we see something meaningful, lets do the same when waiting for the next change of direction. And remember it is cyclical - unless it's different this time ;)!

But for the record, I also believe that things won't crash to nothing. It has always amused me how people joked when the "sheeple" thought HPI would be infinite yet some of this herd seem to think that the economy will shrink to nothing. I guess anything is possible, but it seems kinda unlikely. Buying a house will be the least of our problems in that scenario anyway ;)!

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Economist Intelligence Unit:

Outside the euro zone, the UK's prospects remain bleak. We expect the economy to contract by 4.6% this year and by another 0.5% in 2010.

To the moon, Sibleh!

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At least a 50% reduction from peak within 18-36 months.

What 'scraps' are you on about exactly?

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Ray McCooney:[tax people have come for money] What if were to offer ye... six magic beans?

Tax Woman:[rolls eyes] Probably wouldn't be interested

Ray: (fishes into bean pot) *Seven* magic beans?

Tax Woman: Nope...

Ray: How about...(takes out a radio) a talking noisy box? Inside, there are tiny sprites that are talking to ye. But they cannot hear ye, mind, unless they're doing a phone in.

Tax Woman: No.

Ray: (picks up his flute) You want the piccolillo, don't you!? (blows on it) You'll never take it, never! Oh, (holds flute out) have it, have it, be gone!

Tax Man: Tell you what, Mr. McCooney. Why don't you pick up your quill, (Ray picks up his quill and says "Yeeees!") and your "magic money paper," (Ray picks up his cheque book and says "Oh Yeeees!") put your mark upon it (winks at tax woman. Ray complies and says "Yeeees!") and we'll do the rest.

Ray: (taking signed cheque out of cheque book and handing it over) Yes yes yes yes yeeees!

Tax Man: Good day. (he and the Tax Woman leave)

Ray: a-fare thee well, keepers of the purse! (blows on his flute for a while, then stops suddenly, realising what he's just done) Shit!

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People with fat payouts generaly don't bother signing on the dole, do they? So who are all these people putting in claims?

I suspect you are taking the tiny demographic to which you belong and extrapolating wildly.

The point about house prices is simple- the credit has gone away, and shows no sign of coming back- this is not a prediction, it is a verifiable fact. And without the support of easy credit house prices are not sustainable at their present level.

Errr......... of the few that I know (payouts £100k+), yes they do as their mortgage protection insurance requires that they do so. Its not about the £64/week, its about the £2k a month for 12 months from the insurer.

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I have a large plot of land for sale. Been on sale in the village for about 8 months. Not one drop of interest until this past week where I have had 3 site visits and 2 offers, one conditional, one unconditional.

Had my houses valued at slightly more than they were 6 months ago.

It's probably just a blip and I am still selling up, but confidence is returning and I expect GB to start ordering the banks to lend soon, hence lloyds suggesting they may not take part in the GAP financing ooojeymefliip.

Next year it'll all go tits up though...

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Is it all over? Or to rephrase that question, what level of credit supply is sustainable in the absence of a securitization market and once QE stops?

Once you have worked that out, then you can consider the effects of rising interest rate & unemployment...

Chances of HP value stabilising at today's level? Fat, thin, or no fvcking chance whatsoever (just a wild guess..).

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fwiw spoke to some shopkeepers in a pretty select area this morning, one where the city people commute and live, 3 out of the 4 told me things don't look good. exact quotes below to my question "so how are things then, how's business?"

1. well it's very quiet isn't it.

2. can't go on much longer can it.

3. do i look happy.

4. can't complain

the first shop backed that up as true by selling me something really cheap, and i mean really cheap (1/5 the likely usual price and i would say 50% off the likely price to a haggler - he just accepted what i offered no haggle with me at all)

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You hang your hat mainly on the fact the unemployment is still rising. That's about the only factual argument you have left in a world where there's a new news story every day depicting a rosier future for the world economy.

Unemployment will rise for a while yet and here's why - people laid off after years getting a whacking great payout and can afford (and deservedly so) a long break from work.

This is Earth, where have you been?

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