Rightmove - August - 2.2%

[thedude]

What better thread to debut my hypnotic new avatar

[Timm]

I know most of us know this but it bears repeating that the RM index only measures initial asking prices.

(...)

This sounds like the EAs see the market cooling.

foa4 xcojo, ronpember, The Crutchster, Morgs, The Realist and Time2Buy.

Oh bugger, I am Time2Buy this morning.

Hope no one noticed.

Nice avatar BTW.

[DownsizingDiva]

Have you ever written a letter/email of complaint yourself? That would be the first place to start.

They are obliged to deal with ALL complaints and so long as you don't come across as a flat-earther/loony, you'll get a reply.

Just fired off a complaint on their complaints website. If anyone else would care to to do same, the link is:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/homepage/

[red]

The standard BBC response is that they mention results, both up and down. However, the devil is in the detail:

"Rightmove today showed asking prices down 2.2%. And now for some news about the sighting of a lesser spotted warbler at a power station".

versus,

"The Halifax today reported house prices have risen by 2.6%. 2.6%? That's great isn't it. My portfolio is worth millions now. I'm rich, rich, rich. Just to confirm how rich I am we have the bloke from Charcoal coming on, then a couple of EAs and then the editor of the Express. AJ will make a guest appearance and then that lovely Stuart from Twattets will be on. He's rather hunky don't you think. And just in case you missed them we will regurgitate them on News 24 for the rest of the day. And maybe tomorrow too. Did I mention how rich I am?"

Don't expect balance from the BBC, although to be fair, they did mention this at 5.56 a.m. on Wake up to Money on Radio 5.

Very true...

However, it should encourage rather than dissuade you from letting them know.

As I said, write a letter of complaint (including your 'example' above!) - if enough people complain, it'll certainly raise the odd eyebrow and possibly make a difference.

I think the problem with many news journos is that apart from possibly having a VI in property, they think that putting a 'positive' spin on house price news is what we, the public, want to hear. And let's face it, that's what most of this property-obsessed population wants, however damaging it may be.

[red]

Just fired off a complaint on their complaints website. If anyone else would care to to do same, the link is:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/homepage/

Well done, you.

Not too many exclamation marks, I hope...

[the end is a bit nigher]

Very true...

However, it should encourage rather than dissuade you from letting them know.

As I said, write a letter of complaint (including your 'example' above!) - if enough people complain, it'll certainly raise the odd eyebrow and possibly make a difference.

Trust me. Been there, done it more than once. I would have had more luck trying to fit my head into a half-full baked bean can.

[General Melchett]

Its the same on this site, 2300+ viewings in less than 12 hours and less than 40 replys.

What's to say? Up down up down tarts draws asking prices dont mean a thing if you aint got that (sale gone through) thing?

Down is inevitable. It's just a matter of how, when and by how much.

[Guest theboltonfury]

rightmove are full of sh1t, regardless of whether they say up or down.

Completely agree. I must have a lie down.

[Bewareftb]

We all know that rightmove stats are just an indicator of sentiment of sellers rather than reality however this is still a massive fall.

-2.2% DOWN

It pretty much confirms what we have been saying on here for months that the crash still has a lot more life left in it yet.

Houses are still overvalued no matter what index you look at. The only way to fix that is either massive pay increases which isnt going to happen or further falls the latter seems a lot more likely to me.

Banks are right to restict loans to persons able to pay when interest rates hit 6% which is going to happen sooner or later.

My feeling is that the deposits have probably run out now so we should therefore expect falls for the remainder of the year

bottoming out sometime in 2010 then a slow recovery where pices bouce along the bottom and are not allowed to get out of control.

We will all be better of financially in the long run not just people with a vested interest.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

Hi Timm, That's broadly the X12 ARIMA stuff, single pass with a 4-year averaging window.

Edit to add: there's an old post on the SA methodology, Nov 2005, here including Excel spreadsheet example, #12 & #13

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=225761

I also use the single pass method, but with the 'eyes, ears & common sense' method, linked with experience & talking to other people around the country via this website. This enabled me to realise that Q1 2007 was the peak (varied slightly in some areas/property types) going against all the VI stats at the time, which stated that hpi was still happening......strange that.

not too sure about the X12 ARIMA stuff though as I haven't got O' Level Mafs, I got me English one though.

[crash2006]

well the BBC havent reported this, and they have quoted rightmove many times.

[Brightwell]

well the BBC havent reported this, and they have quoted rightmove many times.

They're too busy getting moist at the news of Japan's/the World's exit from recession (in completely unrelated news, sales of printing presses and ink are also soaring).

[Normal]

Can someone update that "delusion" chart comparing the Haliwide against Rightmove showing what percentage of asking price the average house is going for?

[tomfoolery]

-2.2% DOWN

Isn't that an increase?

[Berk-hater]

Isn't that an increase?

Ask xcojo!

[Bruce Banner]

well the BBC havent reported this, and they have quoted rightmove many times.

Only when RM have reported an increase .

I think that the official BBC line is that they don't report RM figures, but when they're up they just can't resist it .

[twatmangle]

Where is Sibley? I know where Sibley is, I went there last week:

Edited August 17, 2009 by twatmangle

[The Realist]

I know I have quoted and quoted this, and I also know that the RM HPI is of course rubbish, asking prices increasing even whilst 70000 sellers a month are being forced to reduce and STILL NOT SELL.

However, I think this is always worth another read from April 2009:

The June HPI :

Today's HPI:

And of course more houses for sale means HOUSE PRICE CRASH resumes according to Halifax / Nationwide / Fitch and and and......

RM's latest HPI confirms yet again that property is only selling to people with CASH because lenders valuations are coming in at 2009 values NOT 2007.

So when will EA's start explaining to sellers, and when will the press start reporting that LENDERS ARE ONLY WILLING TO LEND AT 2009 VALUES NOT 2007 and that means at least 25% below peak , and even then lenders are reluctant to put forward the other 10 -15% they believe property still has to fall to even start to fall back in line with some sort of sensible lending criteria?

I'm sure that most EAs explain the situation clearly to vendors. It's obviously in EA's interest to achieve a sale.

There are articles in the press about low lender valuations and the impact on sales. Also articles about difficulties in borrowing more than 85 to 90% of property value/valuation.

Vendors then have a free choice on the price they want/accept for their house, unless forced to sell. They will have to live with the consequences of further price falls if they occur. Are you questioning their right to hold out for what they regard as an acceptable price? To repeat, their right not the wisdom of their choice.

One other point, I've always thought that the advantage of being a cash buyer is that you can usually obtain a lower price. If the market is really being propped up by cash buyers then wouldn't you expect this to be reflected in largerbprice falls than are being reported?

Edited August 17, 2009 by The Realist

[Sybil13]

One other point, I've always thought that the advantage of being a cash buyer is that you can usually obtain a lower price. If the market is really being propped up by cash buyers then wouldn't you expect this to be reflected in largerbprice falls than are being reported?

Another factor that I don't understand either but I think this is an explanation as to why that could be happening ....

According to figures from Henry Pryor of HousingExpert.com, the number of properties coming on to the market has fallen from "a peak in February 2004 of over 7,400 per day to just 3,100 today." Meanwhile, the number of sales has dived from a "peak of 5,200 per day in the summer of 2007… to just 1,300 last Christmas" before recovering a little during the "spring selling season to 2,500 a day".

So both the number of sellers and number of buyers has dived – but the gap between the two has closed. So you've got more buyers chasing fewer properties. And if all of those buyers are cash-rich and fussy, they're only going to be chasing the best homes on the market. That suggests that the average price paid is going to be higher than you'd see in a more typical market with a larger number of transactions.

[The Realist]

Isn't there something "we" can do about the obvious bias of the BBC? By "we" I mean all of us on here for a start. Personally I am sick to death of watching the media hype up the "good news" about increasing prices and yet keep very quiet when they are falling?

I just searched the BBC website for 'rightmove' and 'index'. Just three links from 2003, 2004 and 2005. Last one was about 'unrealistic asking prices'.

Not much evidence of obvious bias!

[Sybil13]

Had to dash this morning just came back and read RM's August HPI and was struck by them quoting CEBR!!!

Yes I know I know.....another one of my pet quotes, BUT I am not sure CEBR can stick with one part of their prediction and RM quote it whilst ignoring the other part of that prediction.

RM's August HPI said:

Future price and transaction growth is now controlled by the bottleneck of mortgage availability. This is unlikely to change for years to come, with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasting that mortgage application levels will recover slowly and remain well below the levels seen in the early part of this decade as far ahead as 2013. Even in 2013 the CEBR state that numbers will still be 24% below 2006 levels. This may well reflect a paradigm shift in access to mortgage lending. While HSBC is the only major lender to have taken a more proactive stance and increased its market share, its reported average loan-to-value of circa 50% on new mortgage lending is a perfect illustration of the new era of both caution and cherry picking.

Shipside adds: “Lenders are looking to remove as much risk as possible from their mortgage book. While the government’s left-hand is waving them on to lend to more home movers and small businesses, the right-hand is effectively flagging them down again by urging lenders to re-build balance sheets and improve capital adequacyâ€.

Doesn't sound like a recipe for house price increase does it?

Anyway what CEBR previously said was:

House prices in 2013 could fall to the level last seen in 2003, according to new analysis.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) is calling on the government for further action in the property market to prevent a 40 per cent peak-to-trough house price drop.

Furthermore the body predicts house price fall in 2009 will be worse than in 2008 if there is no improvement in lending.

CEBR predicts house prices will fall 32 per cent peak-to-trough from the third quarter of 2007 with prices bottoming out in the first quarter of 2010, but only if the government’s banking bailout is able to stimulate a modest improvement in mortgage approvals from the December 2008 level of 32,000 per month to around 50,000 per month in 2010.

If government bailouts are fruitless in boosting mortgage lending, the forecasters see a 25 per cent drop in prices from the coming level and a 40 per cent drop in total – with stagnation through 2010 and 2011 and prices still below 2003 in 2013.

Since this prediction CEBR changed their tune , obviously found it didn't make them popular, but personally I could not see any reason for CEBR to change their view that property would fall 32% peak to trough even if approvals reached 50000 a month by 2010.

I am still not sure why CEBR concluded that 50000 approvals a month would lead to stability in house prices given :

In April, lenders granted 43,200 mortgages, according to the Bank of England. This compares with 40,000 in March and surpasses expectations of a rise to 41,000. However, the earliest records – dating from April 1993 when the UK was recovering from the last recession – show mortgage approvals at 87,291, the Bank says.

Healthy activity is around 100,000 approvals month, according to Boulger, but he adds: "We may not see this for some time." It took until October 1996 for approvals to hit 100,000 after the last recession – almost four years after it had officially ended.

Certainly RM's August HPI does not seem to support the view that the government bailouts have helped boost lending significantly , indeed it confirms that only the cash rich can currently buy property , a scenario that CEBR believed would bring it with it 40% drops in property values , which is of course what Moodys said was the "assumption" now.

[Sybil13]

Sorry I am posting again because if you edit a thread this website introduces some very odd formatting which takes ages to sort .

I just wanted to ask if you also feel that RM is saying that sellers are better to accept a 2009 value cash offer than attempt to get the overvalued asking price from someone who needs a mortgage because:

1. getting a mortgage is difficult

2. getting a LTV above 50% is difficult

3. getting a mortgage and the valuation not coming in 25 - 30% below peak is difficult.

What is more, are they not confirming that NOTHING is going to change dramatically with lending for many years to come?

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

I'm sure that most EAs explain the situation clearly to vendors. It's obviously in EA's interest to achieve a sale.

There are articles in the press about low lender valuations and the impact on sales. Also articles about difficulties in borrowing more than 85 to 90% of property value/valuation.

Vendors then have a free choice on the price they want/accept for their house, unless forced to sell. They will have to live with the consequences of further price falls if they occur. Are you questioning their right to hold out for what they regard as an acceptable price? To repeat, their right not the wisdom of their choice.

One other point, I've always thought that the advantage of being a cash buyer is that you can usually obtain a lower price. If the market is really being propped up by cash buyers then wouldn't you expect this to be reflected in largerbprice falls than are being reported?

I think the majority of EA's & EA staff have BTL property, so they don't want prices to fall even if it costs them their jobs as they are relying on the hpi from multiple BTL's

EVERYONE'S been at it this time, that's why EVERYONE is fudging & lying.

It IS that bad. It's a depression remember.

all IMHO of course.

[The Masked Tulip]

Rightmove, the property website, said that the main reason for the fall was that owners selling in the summer months tended to be more “aggressive†with the price because they need to sell but know that there is a smaller pool of buyers.

First time i heard that. Doesnt everyone get property fever during the summer months?

I thought that EAs were claiming it is the other way around - prices going up because of a shortage of a available properties?

Oh well, time to print this out and wave under the nose of your nearest arrogant EA!

[simon99]

I just searched the BBC website for 'rightmove' and 'index'. Just three links from 2003, 2004 and 2005. Last one was about 'unrealistic asking prices'.

Not much evidence of obvious bias!

To be fair to the Beeb on this one, it was mentioned on the city bulletin on News24 between 5 and 6pm and the presenter said good news for FTB's.