eric pebble Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 (edited) House prices down 17.7% as slump resumes http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11...mp-resumes.html Ellis from [the former]HBOS talks his usual UTTER CR@P Martin Ellis, housing economist at Halifax, said: 'Whilst market activity remains at very low levels, there are some tentative signs that activity may be beginning to stabilise." And let's face it guys and girls....... the market is now down 40% - not 17.7..... ..........Another 50% to go......... Edited March 5, 2009 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotNoodle Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 The house-price-to-earnings ratio, a key measure of affordability, fell to its lowest level for six years in February to 4.42.This is 24 per cent lower than when the ratio peaked at 5.84 in July 2007, although it still remains above the long-term average of This is based on HP=£160,421 So they are saying that average "earnings" = £36,150 As mentioned on other threads, this may mean average "household income" which would average out single persons and contributing couples. I have always assumed the graphs shown on the graph page on this site related to a single person's earnings and that the approximate long term average of 3.5 would therefore be about £80,000 or £90,000 today. Am I wrong ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spivT Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 with average household incomes as high as 36k, and with said households struggling to raise minimum 10% deposits, it's quite obvious that affordability needs to, and probably will, fall below 4....it pretty much has to for a sustainable housing market financed by more prudent banks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 din't realise you were in the 90% gang eric? The 90%'ers do realise that at 2% per month, every month, it will take nearly 10 years to fall 90% from peak? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Don't Surf Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 What do they mean by 'resumes'?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 The 90%'ers do realise that at 2% per month, every month, it will take nearly 10 years to fall 90% from peak? Bit like Japan then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 (edited) din't realise you were in the 90% gang eric? Correct me if I am wrong - but I am saying prices in the real world/on the street are now 40% off the summer 2007 peak...... and there is THEN another 50% to go...... This is not -90% from the peak..... ? Not quite anyway..... For property to be TRULY affordable - for people living in the REAL world - and not lalaland/celeb-cr@pland - they will have to go down to £50-60k for the FTB - and other prices adjust accordingly. As has been said here many times -- NO ONE in the meedja or the Govt WANTS TO ADMIT - THIS HAS GOT TO HAPPEN. EDIT: Actually -- FTB properties will have to be priced at around £45k - i.e. 3 x £15k -- which is as much as what a HUGE amount of people ACTUALLY earn in this country -- despite the TOTAL AND UTTER BULLSH1T put out by the Vested Interests about the "average" i/c being £36k or whatever... "Money" is going to be scarcer than ever from here onwards....... £15k pa will be considered a good income in the near future..... watch and see --- MILLIONS will be on the £46pw dole....... Edited March 5, 2009 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
time 2 raise interest rates Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Did they mention rents are crashing too. lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtoruin Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Correct me if I am wrong - but I am saying prices in the real world/on the street are now 40% off the summer 2007 peak...... and there is THEN another 50% to go...... This is not -90% from the peak..... ? Not quite anyway.....For property to be TRULY affordable - for people living in the REAL world - and not lalaland/celeb-cr@pland - they will have to go down to £50-60k for the FTB - and other prices adjust accordingly. As has been said here many times -- NO ONE in the meedja or the Govt WANTS TO ADMIT - THIS HAS GOT TO HAPPEN. Many other posters on other similar threads are complaining they're not seein even 25% down from peak Eric. So don't really see where your 40% is coming from, tho' in an area where you're about 20% down on asking prices (my areas patchy but some properties yes), I suppose if you get 15% off asking you're close to 35% from peak nominal. FWIW I'm sticking with another 20% down in the next year to reach 40% nominal drop from peak, 50%+ real. If you head below 50% nominal drops you're into territory where such a high proportion of the population will be unable to sell due to NE, sales volumes will drop to nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
time 2 raise interest rates Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Barclays are on the slump too, down 14p to 72p, Lloyds down 6p to 41p. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Many other posters on other similar threads are complaining they're not seein even 25% down from peak Eric. So don't really see where your 40% is coming from, tho' in an area where you're about 20% down on asking prices (my areas patchy but some properties yes), I suppose if you get 15% off asking you're close to 35% from peak nominal.FWIW I'm sticking with another 20% down in the next year to reach 40% nominal drop from peak, 50%+ real. If you head below 50% nominal drops you're into territory where such a high proportion of the population will be unable to sell due to NE, sales volumes will drop to nothing. But if those people can`t pay their mortgage the bank will sell for them, keeping volumes up and the banks lending at sensible multiples? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the flying pig Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 ...For property to be TRULY affordable - for people living in the REAL world - and not lalaland/celeb-cr@pland - they will have to go down to £50-60k for the FTB - and other prices adjust accordingly... i know what you're saying, and i personally would very much like prices to be down to that level, living standards in the UK would take a massive upwards leap if this were to happen but, the thing is, we've never, well, not for a couple of generations at least, had this sort of 'easy affordability' in the UK... the house price to average earnings ratio has tended to fluctuate within pretty narrow bounds [other than at the peak of the bubble either side of 2007]... and, just as nothing has fundamentally changed in a way that makes the 2007 ratio sustainable, i very much doubt that anything has changed in the other direction to bring us towards a utopian situation... i suspect that people at the very bottom of the earnings pyramid will always be up against it when it comes to owning their own property. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 (edited) i know what you're saying, and i personally would very much like prices to be down to that level, living standards in the UK would take a massive upwards leap if this were to happen but, the thing is, we've never, well, not for a couple of generations at least, had this sort of 'easy affordability' in the UK... the house price to average earnings ratio has tended to fluctuate within pretty narrow bounds [other than at the peak of the bubble either side of 2007]... and, just as nothing has fundamentally changed in a way that makes the 2007 ratio sustainable, i very much doubt that anything has changed in the other direction to bring us towards a utopian situation... i suspect that people at the very bottom of the earnings pyramid will always be up against it when it comes to owning their own property. No --- there is going to be NA MARKET for the lower end of properties -- UNTIL they are AFFORDABLE in the REAL WORLD..... NO MONEY - NO SALES -- NO MARKET THUS: As I say above - in my correction to my first post -- Actually -- FTB properties will have to be priced at around £45k - i.e. 3 x £15k -- which is as much as what a HUGE amount of people ACTUALLY earn in this country -- despite the TOTAL AND UTTER BULLSH1T put out by the Vested Interests about the "average" i/c being £36k or whatever... "Money" is going to be scarcer than ever from here onwards....... £15k pa will be considered a good income in the near future..... watch and see --- MILLIONS will be on the £46pw dole....... Edited March 5, 2009 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Um_Bongo Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 The 90%'ers do realise that at 2% per month, every month, it will take nearly 10 years to fall 90% from peak? I think 90%'ers would say they are predicting in real terms. Are you assuming 0% inflation for the next decade? Average prices in 5 years could still be £160K yet register as a 90% drop from peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 (edited) The 90%'ers do realise that at 2% per month, every month, it will take nearly 10 years to fall 90% from peak? Last Recession property fell for 6 years 1989 to 1995 this after only a 3 year boom. So its not unrealistic for property to for a further 10 years (could be upto 20 years ) and the rest with our 12 year boom . Actually its quite frightening how low property may get. Looking back to mid 2007 who would have predicted propery would have fallen nearly 20% in 18 months and we are only at the START of the RECESSION . NB we are only at the start of this carnage, alot on the forum don't remember the last recession if there is a delay in your paycheck at the end of the month the canary bird is singing . Also if you turn up to work and you are locked out don't be surprised or see lots of security guards milling around your builidng for the escort out the building with 5 minutes notice. Gosh it seems only yesterday Edited March 5, 2009 by joey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Bit like Japan then? and paying off store cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endofcrash2 Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Correct me if I am wrong - but I am saying prices in the real world/on the street are now 40% off the summer 2007 peak...... and there is THEN another 50% to go...... This is not -90% from the peak..... ? Not quite anyway.....For property to be TRULY affordable - for people living in the REAL world - and not lalaland/celeb-cr@pland - they will have to go down to £50-60k for the FTB - and other prices adjust accordingly. As has been said here many times -- NO ONE in the meedja or the Govt WANTS TO ADMIT - THIS HAS GOT TO HAPPEN. EDIT: Actually -- FTB properties will have to be priced at around £45k - i.e. 3 x £15k -- which is as much as what a HUGE amount of people ACTUALLY earn in this country -- despite the TOTAL AND UTTER BULLSH1T put out by the Vested Interests about the "average" i/c being £36k or whatever... "Money" is going to be scarcer than ever from here onwards....... £15k pa will be considered a good income in the near future..... watch and see --- MILLIONS will be on the £46pw dole....... In your world may be. I am certainly not seeing 40% drops or anything like. The only places that may have dropped this much are those new build flats in city centres the rest of the property is down between 10%-15% from peak. For you to get to 90% you must be predicting massive inflation then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 In your world may be. I am certainly not seeing 40% drops or anything like. The only places that may have dropped this much are those new build flats in city centres the rest of the property is down between 10%-15% from peak.For you to get to 90% you must be predicting massive inflation then? Not really -- just massive smelling of the coffee -- PEOPLE will start to realise --- WHY SHOULD I PAY THAT? IT IS UTTER CR@P..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Last Recession property fell for 6 years 1989 to 1995 this after only a 3 year boom. So its not unrealistic for property to for a further 10 years (could be upto 20 years ) and the rest with our 12 year boom . Actually its quite frightening how low property may get. Looking back to mid 2007 who would have predicted propery would have fallen nearly 20% in 18 months and we are only at the START of the RECESSION .NB we are only at the start of this carnage, alot on the forum don't remember the last recession if there is a delay in your paycheck at the end of the month the canary bird is singing . Also if you turn up to work and you are locked out don't be surprised or see lots of security guards milling around your builidng for the escort out the building with 5 minutes notice. Gosh it seems only yesterday I like the fire alarm trick or the free ice cream and beer in the car park Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kittingerjump Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 you couldn't make it up...an economy based on the purchase of property. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 you couldn't make it up...an economy based on the purchase of property. Yup -- The UK "economy" is just a stupid game of pass the parcel [property] to each other at ever-increasing "prices" - using LIAR LOANS as the fuel -- until the music stops......... :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 Men In A Boat Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 you couldn't make it up...an economy based on the purchase of property. well, we have had tulips, south sea, 20's bull market, japanese bubble market, .com, housing....whats the next bubble to pile into!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 Yup -- The UK "economy" is just a stupid game of pass the parcel [property] to each other at ever-increasing "prices" - using LIAR LOANS as the fuel -- until the music stops......... :angry: I`m going for 3 x 15 and a massive spike in the sales of Lidl coffee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 well, we have had tulips, south sea, 20's bull market, japanese bubble market, .com, housing....whats the next bubble to pile into!! Stainless steel soup kitchen equipment? Maybe Ramsay will be selling some? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barabbas Posted March 5, 2009 Share Posted March 5, 2009 well, we have had tulips, south sea, 20's bull market, japanese bubble market, .com, housing....whats the next bubble to pile into!! I think there's a secret message in here. The next bubble will be based on selling burkas and chadors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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