Ugh, How Much Longer?

[jbambridge]

I'm new to this board and I certainly don't have the economic expertise of a lot of you but I have been watching the property market for 6 years with avid interest. We bought a house in 2003 for £140k and sold late 2006 for £200k (I was sceptical at the time but now realise that we definatly sold at the right time!!). Now we live in army accommodation whilst we wait for the prices to come back down so we can buy our dream property in devon.

My question is .... HOW MUCH LONGER DO WE HAVE TO WAIT??!!! I'm getting so impatient, I have been waiting YEARS for this to bust (hubby has been saying it's going to happen since 2002, smug so and so) and i know we are nearly there but how long?! Which counties will go first? Are we looking at months or years?

Hope you don't mind a newbnie asking a dumb question but I can't find an answer anywhere, everyone says it will happen (except Darling of course) but noone says when.

Aaggh

JB (pregnant and broody for a home of her own)

[Guest The_Oldie]

My guess would be about three years from now may be a sensible time to start looking.

[Beggar Thy Children]

Ignore the spin, it's happening already if you look at the numbers yourself.

The phase we're now at is waiting for the reality to sink in with the population at large.

you've had a lot of patience so far so just sit tight and don't be tempted.

[expatowner]

Aaggh

You could wait for ever if Darling and Broon, Bernanke and the Fed manage to keep the boat from rocking too much.

You sold with a hope to buy cheaper.

Risky strategy.

Find a dream house you want, buy it and be happy.

Money isnt everything.

[laurejon]

You could wait for ever if Darling and Broon, Bernanke and the Fed manage to keep the boat from rocking too much.

You sold with a hope to buy cheaper.

Risky strategy.

Find a dream house you want, buy it and be happy.

Money isnt everything.

I agree, the problem is not going to be finding a cheap property in the future as there will be plenty to go round. It will be who is going to lend you the money to finance it.

Think of it like this.

If you had 200k in cash would you lend it to your mate for 5.5% return less tax each year to buy a house in the current market ?

I suspect not, and the banks do not know you from adam, and its going to get tougher.

I think many people who sold to rent, and gave up their mortgages that could have been fixed at 5% for 25 years are going to kick themselves when they attempt to re-enter the market.

[cells]

you have a long time to wait my dear

perhaps as long as 8-10 years

[jbambridge]

Find a dream house you want, buy it and be happy.

Money isnt everything.

Ha ha ha!! There's the issue!! We have been looking at the Open Market Homebuy (hubby counts as a key worker being in the army) but there's something very uncomfortable about knowing that half your house belongs to a bank and the other half to the government... neither of which I trust with a dog let alone my property. Aaah well, 3- 10 years it is then (I could get less for murder these days). Thanks for all the replies, I feel enlightened.

JB xx

[cells]

Ha ha ha!! There's the issue!! We have been looking at the Open Market Homebuy (hubby counts as a key worker being in the army) but there's something very uncomfortable about knowing that half your house belongs to a bank and the other half to the government... neither of which I trust with a dog let alone my property. Aaah well, 3- 10 years it is then (I could get less for murder these days). Thanks for all the replies, I feel enlightened.

JB xx

although its nice to say money isnt everything, it sure is important

dont get suckered into buying becuase "money isnt everything"

if your mortgage is half its value im sure your quility of life will be better. so yes "money isnt everything" but it sure dont hurt to have money

[juvenal]

I'm new to this board and I certainly don't have the economic expertise of a lot of you but I have been watching the property market for 6 years with avid interest. We bought a house in 2003 for £140k and sold late 2006 for £200k (I was sceptical at the time but now realise that we definatly sold at the right time!!). Now we live in army accommodation whilst we wait for the prices to come back down so we can buy our dream property in devon.

My question is .... HOW MUCH LONGER DO WE HAVE TO WAIT??!!! I'm getting so impatient, I have been waiting YEARS for this to bust (hubby has been saying it's going to happen since 2002, smug so and so) and i know we are nearly there but how long?! Which counties will go first? Are we looking at months or years?

Hope you don't mind a newbnie asking a dumb question but I can't find an answer anywhere, everyone says it will happen (except Darling of course) but noone says when.

Aaggh

JB (pregnant and broody for a home of her own)

Are you checking out Devon local info on other forums on HPC? In my bit of Dorset I can see prices being reduced.

[Darkman]

Every time someone posts this question (this year) I'll post "2013". K?

And 2013 is very optimistic. It took maybe 16 years for property to bubble up since the last trough, correct? So why not 16 years going back down?

It's a horrible situation for FTBs, but can't be swept under the carpet. My honest opinion is for people not too tied to this country, they should leave for a better standard of living and less boom & bust. This kind of see saw economics crucifies the less fortunate, to the benefit of the fat cats.

*That* is Britain.

You can like it or leave it. But don't deny it.

[delboypass]

How the hell have you been waiting for years..???

You stated that your hubby said tere would be a property crash in 2002

So in 2003 you buy a house fo £140k...

Then in 2006...you sell for £200k..

Making a £60k profit or 50% tax free in 3 years (no other investment would give you this return)

Are you greedy or what???

[symo]

you have a long time to wait my dear

perhaps as long as 8-10 years

Based on what?

The credit business having as lax terms as it always did. The fact property keeps going up in value.

You're funny, the fugures are aready going against you so please prove me wrong a nd buy a house right now.

[uncle_monty]

3-5 years before the bottom. This will take a while.

[Ah-so]

We know it has started, we just do not know when it will end. As long as you are not determined to buy at the low, you may not have to wait too long to see a return on your gamble.

[jbambridge]

How the hell have you been waiting for years..???

You stated that your hubby said tere would be a property crash in 2002

So in 2003 you buy a house fo £140k...

Then in 2006...you sell for £200k..

Making a £60k profit or 50% tax free in 3 years (no other investment would give you this return)

Are you greedy or what???

Oooh, that's a bit harsh!! Actually, we had to move because of my husbands job, we had to give £25k back my in laws for the deposit they lent us, we paid off various loans and repaying our mortgage early cost us £7k, we walked away with practically nothing. We talked in 2003 about how the economy was slowing down but as we were renting privatly at the time and his parents had offered us a deposit we thought it would be a good time to buy (but not necessarily a house that we could live in forever) as it would take a number of years of HP growth before there was a slowdown, in that respect my husband was spot on and I do believe that apart from the early repayment charge, was absolutley the right time to sell. Even back then we were FTB pushed to the limit and by the time we sold, it was a struggle to keep everything together. We're not greedy people, we are a young couple working hard to support ourselves (without "benefits") who just want to be able to own a home without struggling to make ends meet.

The poster who mentioned moving country has hit the nail on the head and we have discussed many times purchasing abroad instead but why should I be forced to move away from a family and country that I love just because the stupid goverment couldn't look after a piggy bank without getting into debt.

JB

[Authoritarian]

I think the OP has a lot going for them when it comes to buying their dream house in Devon.

1) Big deposit 60k+ (I hope!)

2) Husband in a bubble proof job, no questions there.

3) Currently in army accomodation, I don't know the specifics but I would hope that its cheap and available certainly for the medium term so that there's no pressure to move out quickly

4) The Biggie, market sentiment is now wholly on your side, as someone pointed out the other day the question is not whether we're getting a crash or not but rather how big is this going to be.

Work out what you can reasonably afford do your research and you may be able to pick something up from a distressed investor/auction etc. Alot of people may be sweating over this so use it to your advantage. The credit crisis is now in full swing but the minimum you're gonna wait will be months not years. It may take years for the average house price to come down via Nationwide/Halifax data but that isn't the be all and end all.

[Harry Crashman]

you have a long time to wait my dear

perhaps as long as 8-10 years

It will not be anywhere near that long. I llive in Northern Ireland and the market only turned about 6 months ago. Already we have seen massive drops at an amazing rate. Think around 30% with some houses going for even less. To think that only last year people were bidding 30% over the origional asking prices. Most people you talk to in N.I. now accept that property is on the way down and a major correction is underway. This only the beginnig. Most houses are lying unsold with hardly any veiwers. Now that people see house prices falling they are waiting to see how far they go. Not to mention the banks arn't handing out silly mortgages anymore.

Check out the Northern Ireland sub forum and it will open you're eyes

[GAL BEAR]

I'm new to this board and I certainly don't have the economic expertise of a lot of you but I have been watching the property market for 6 years with avid interest. We bought a house in 2003 for £140k and sold late 2006 for £200k (I was sceptical at the time but now realise that we definatly sold at the right time!!). Now we live in army accommodation whilst we wait for the prices to come back down so we can buy our dream property in devon.

My question is .... HOW MUCH LONGER DO WE HAVE TO WAIT??!!! I'm getting so impatient, I have been waiting YEARS for this to bust (hubby has been saying it's going to happen since 2002, smug so and so) and i know we are nearly there but how long?! Which counties will go first? Are we looking at months or years?

Hope you don't mind a newbnie asking a dumb question but I can't find an answer anywhere, everyone says it will happen (except Darling of course) but noone says when.

Aaggh

JB (pregnant and broody for a home of her own)

Allthough all the economically clued up here say this will play out over a few years I don't think you will have to wait that long.

In the last 'boom' in the late 1980's my sister and I looked at a little house in August 91'. It was priced at about 80 grand. (does not seem too bad now does it?). Salaries were a lot lower then though, I think my sister and I earned just under about £12,000 each.

Anyway we were keen to buy it though quite a few people at work warned us that prices were dropping and we were mad.

Anyway, we were VERY financially un-eductaed and just went for it.

Luckilly for us (and we didn't really deserve any luck as we were so obviously thick !) the couple who were selling decided to get divorced and one thing let to another and the house got repossessed....... this long drawn out

nightmare went on till March of the following year ! (so 8 months).

We hung on as we really loved the little house and guess what, our mortgage lapsed so we had to have a revaluation done. (Again we were too thick to realise how much house prices had fallen).

Re-valuation came out and we were amazed it had dropped to around the 50 grand mark!!!

Of course we were overjoyed.

Again at the time everyone at work said "Put in an offer below that amount, they will have your hand off".

But were so so worried about losing the house that we signed on the dotted line.

We paid about 30 grand less for it after 8 months! (and probably could have got it for a lot less)

Now I found out years later that house prices kept falling after that (I was oblivious at the time) and if we had tried to sell a year later would probably have found ourselves in negative equity till about 1996 when price started rising again.

But I still am sure the BIG drops came in those first few months of the crash.

I am convinced that is what will happen this time.

I think there will be big drops once negative sentiment really takes hold over the next year.

Then prices will still fall but not so markedly that you would really notice.

I have nothing to base this on other than my previous experience.

No doubt people on here will shoot me down in flames, but I think in a years time you will have seen prices fall quite significantly. A year is not too long too wait is it? Keep saving (if you can) and then thats' even more you can put towards your new home.

Good luck with your baby!

[GAL BEAR]

Also (just thought of something else)....

I am sure I have read on one of the News Bloggs on here that house prices have fallen in the USA about 17% already and I am sure that the 'Crash' has not been happening for very long over there (a few monthss) , so those price falls have taken hold fairly quickly.

And also I have read on here that the USA Housing Bubble is no-where near as inflated as ours!

So our price falls should be worse (better for us) or about the same, and take hold just as quick!

Once again, I am sure someone on here will correct me if I am wrong.

Edited March 22, 2008 by GAL BEAR

[Bosh]

Hello Newbie, welcome to HPC.co.uk.

As you may have gathered, there will be plenty of people ready to chuck there views at you, quite a lot of negative ones this weekend on this thread i`m afraid, maybe the bears will respond more during the week.

I know it is frustrating and as you know, no one person can call a day or time of when prices will drop considerably. In my oppinion and that is all it is, my oppinion. You will see huge price drops from April onwards, amounts will differ in every county.

My biggest problem is when to jump back in. We have decided that, that will be when a certain area drops by the amount we want and we find the right house and we can afford the mortgage payments.

Basically we have to be on our toes.

Don`t get over stressed, especially in your condition.

remember there is no such thing as a silly question, ignore the rude pratz and gain as much info from this forum as possible. Apart from the weirdos there are some very clued up people on here.

Good luck

Edited March 22, 2008 by boshdadosh

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

Ha ha ha!! There's the issue!! We have been looking at the Open Market Homebuy (hubby counts as a key worker being in the army) but there's something very uncomfortable about knowing that half your house belongs to a bank and the other half to the government... neither of which I trust with a dog let alone my property. Aaah well, 3- 10 years it is then (I could get less for murder these days). Thanks for all the replies, I feel enlightened.

JB xx

IMHO, you should give OMHB a miss. There are plenty of threads on here with regards to this and other government 'initiatives.' I too am classed as a keyworker but I would not touch any of these schemes with a bargepole.

3-5 years before the bottom. This will take a while.

Agreed. We plan to start looking in 2 years time by then hopefully, we would have added to our deposit. Ideally, I would like to wait for at least 3-4 years before thinking of purchasing. This would tie in with needing to identify a good secondary school, although by then one may not be able to move into a catchment area in order to guarantee a place.

[MrMarket]

How much longer? Interesting question.

Having spent some time thinking about this I really think we're looking at 2 and a half to 3 years before this bottoms out. I really don't see prices falling for a much longer period of time.

If you think about it, the people who should be the last to get burned will be those who purchased at the height of the bubble - summer 2007. Most of these will get hit when they need to remortgage (impossible given negative equity) or pay the SVRs when their fixed rate deals end (possibly 30% increase in cost). Typically this will be 2 - 3yrs after taking the mortgage out. A significant number should get in trouble and become forced sellers through bankruptcy, repossession etc. Allow another 6 months after the fixed rate period ends for this to bite in.

Add the lot together and I think you're looking at just under 2 to just under 3 years to the trough; early-2010.

I would say however not to be afraid of buying in a falling market, and don't try to time the turn - it's impossible and you'll probably miss it. By the time the statistics and media get hold of the fact the "market has turned", you can bet it turned 6 months before, and houses are priced at the same levels they were 12 months previously (rise has wiped out falls). As long as prices are significantly down on the peak, that the house you're looking for appears good value to you, and that you can afford it within your means I'd go for it. Certainly this is what I am hoping to do.

[Driver]

For what its worth I also think two - three years will be a good time (based on my memories of the last crash).

I am planning my personal finances for January 2010 to be ready to move.

[Ellie]

Hi

Its not a silly question and I hope you won't be put off by some rigorous replies - a lot of people on this site I think it would be fair to say do not suffer fools gladly (err not that I am suggesting you are a fool!!)

What you will find on this site is a huge range of opinion and an amazing source of information - what you won't get is lots of hugs and stuff - you can go to MSE and co for that!

I wonder though whether you have considered why you want to buy AT ALL? Why not rent? Its great - you are totally mobile, the landlord does all the repairs, you can move anywhere at a drop of a hat and as rents fall you can live somewhere you could never afford to buy. Plus if things go t*ts up employmentwise you can claim housing benefit/housing allowance straghtaway rather than waiting the pesky 39 weeks for Income Support to contribute. AND when you are old and f**ked you wont have to worry about selling up to pay for your care as we are having to do for my mother. My father worked for 40 years to pay for their house and the care home fees for my mother will swallow up the value in 4 years. It is utterly pointless and a huge con. Not that I am bitter or anything...

[right_freds_dead]

Hi

Its not a silly question and I hope you won't be put off by some rigorous replies - a lot of people on this site I think it would be fair to say do not suffer fools gladly (err not that I am suggesting you are a fool!!)

What you will find on this site is a huge range of opinion and an amazing source of information - what you won't get is lots of hugs and stuff - you can go to MSE and co for that!

i got some hugs.