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uncle_monty

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Everything posted by uncle_monty

  1. Did it in 2008. Left me pretty much cash neutral (thanks to the bailout). However, I was able to sleep at night whilst going through redundancy and a failed start-up venture. Would it do it now? No.
  2. Relevant excerpt............... So let me now move into broad exploration mode and give three examples in which a trade-off between monetary and financial stability might arise, and which could in theory justify a policy of aiming off the inflation target in order to reduce the risk of future financial instability, before I turn to whether such a policy would have been appropriate before the crisis. The first is where misperceptions about future incomes persist and are embodied in key prices, such as the exchange rate and long-term interest rates. Households, businesses, and banks can all ma
  3. In a speech just now, Mervyn King has suggested that the Bank should be able to deviate from inflation targeting at points in time where growth is more important. Faisal Islam has translated this as giving the new Governor a mandate to drop the target and keep interest rates at record lows for years to come. Could be a gamechanger.....................
  4. West London. There was some value in 2009/10, but now we're back to 2007 peak +++. Will be interesting to see how 2012 goes.
  5. Indeed. I used the same mechanism to move from 5% ownership of a 3 bed house to 50%+ ownership of a 5/6 bed house.
  6. We discussed a couple of years ago, and just as then, you're only partially correct. If you are saving from surplus monthly income, then you are indeed receiving 8% (i.e. in January your £300 deposit earns 8% for 12 months, in February your second deposit earns 8% for 11 months and so on. Therefore you are receiving 8% on your entire amount deposited over 12 months - understand?). Why would you expect to earn 8% interest on money you have yet to earn and deposit? Wooly thinking! If you are drip feeding in from a £3,600 balance, then you will earn 4.3% on the accruing First Direct balance
  7. I think we can call this "the death of the margin call". The depths to which TPTB will go to maintain the status quo is quite staggering.
  8. They are the majority. It's how a "democracy" (tongue-in-cheek) works.
  9. Its a possibility. Like I said, I think bears need snookers / a Black Swan for a full-blooded nominal HPC (which by definition cannot be predicted).
  10. Agreed. TPTB = the banking system. If not the same people, then members of the same family/club/university, etc.
  11. Where? On average? Where you live? Where you want to live? Please explain to me step-by-step how 20%+ nominal falls per year will tolerated without a monumental and coordinated policy response? You advocate an economic death spiral culminating in violence and revolution (i.e. loss of power and wealth by incumbent politicians (both sides of the House) and their chums). These turkeys ain't going to vote for that Christmas party. Stop advocating what you want or wish to happen, and let's debate what we think can happen.
  12. Apologies, mis-read the post so I got confused between ROI and NI. NI and mainland UK are like chalk and cheese in terms of demand for properties with the financial means to back it up.
  13. In financial and economic terms, yes. In political and executive terms, not so much. The UK continues to punch above its weight in terms of G8, IMF, EU, Bilderberg, Davos, etc. In geopolitical terms, the Chinese, Indians, Brazilians are still a little nouveau riche Vs the old establishment of the last generation. China also has its own domestic problems (inflation, restless populance/workers, dare I say a real estate bubble) that may check their progress, albeit not permanently. Being outside the Euro is a boon for us. Also, austerity and well structured sovereign debt (in terms of mat
  14. Agreed. In that vein, mainland UK, London & SE in particular, are on a different planet to NI.
  15. Agreed. We only differ on timing. Do you think China's dominance in resources/emerging markets will manifest this year or in 20 years. I believe the latter, you the former. Place your chips ladies and gentlemen.
  16. And on the income side? Bonuses? Demand (local and international)? Clear parallels with Belfast
  17. Good spot. Got the wrong end of the stick there. NI overbuilt and got ahead of incomes. Can you honestly draw a parallel with London & South East?
  18. I agree there are more profound problems to address. These can be summarised in the question: how do we replace FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) income in our national accounts? Theoretically, this is a big task, given our skills base, relative wages, etc. However, practically, this is a near impossible task, given the VIs deeply embedded into our politics. Housing is a sideshow.
  19. Apart from the Euro bailout, you mean? And they're still in the mire. Hardly problem fixed, eh? If anything, Ireland is a cautionary tale to TPTB of what happens if you allow a breakneck HPC
  20. My point is that any significant nominal falls from here will produce a further coordinated policy response from government/BOE/banks i.e. - HPI included in CPI measure = ZIRP/near ZIRP continues - Continued cheaper funding for banks/guarantees - Support for miortgage indemnity guarantees = return of 90% LTV for FTBs/BTLs - Continued forbearance by banks Shapps has been ploughing the "house price stability" furrow for months http://www.communities.gov.uk/newsstories/housing/1737466 The game is rigged.
  21. Good post. A Black Swan could of course change things dramatically either way.
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