Latest Land Reg - Monthly -0.4% Annual +6.7%

[damianlsmith]

HA HA HA!!! I've just fallen off my chair with laughter!

Yesterday we had -6.8% for London, and you're heralding a measly 0.6 rise in LR figures (which lag by the way) as 'fighting on'!

Brilliant!

It was mean't to be in light of all the other data - not supporting it

[redgenieuk]

Is it me, or are the numbers in that report REALLY confusing?

Example:

NE = +2.2%

EM = -3.3%

These numbers are seasonally adjusted (I think).

Now if you peruse the % price differences by "County/unitary authority" & "Metropolitan district", there are NONE over +2%, and NONE less than -2.8%.

So how do they get the +2.2% for the NE and -3.3% for the EM. This would imply one area has been SA UP, and another area SA DOWN !! How does that work?!?!

I spotted that and frankly its barmy. IF SA, you would have assumed it would have been adjusted up in December..... odd. Very odd.

[Bearfacts]

The BBC have reported on it:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7214777.stm

Makes bearish reading :-)

Dont you just love the way that almost all the reports on falling house prices seem to end with the lines ' which mean the BOE is likely to cut rates next month' or 'increasing pressure on the MPC to cut rates.' Its just repeated mindlessly as though it were accepted wisdom. House prices fall therefore rates must be cut - not a second to pause for thought and consider wether or not it might be a good thing and what the implications of cutting rates might be.

[shuggyboy24]

hi

Does anyone know where to access scottish figures, and with a regional variance?

thanks

[Flat Bear]

It is always good to see the actual prices houses sold for to see how far the lenders had "adjusted" them.

It does seem that both the Halifax and Nationwide have been roughly in line with actual prices

These figures are for imformation recieved before November 07 which I think it is fair to say are, on average, for prices paid 3 months previously (August)

Halifax had mom at .4% with yoy at 11.4%

Nationwide had mom at .6% with yoy at 9.6%

The LR now tell us the actual figures were around .6% mom with yoy around 8.1%

I have always looked at the Halifax and Nationwide as best up to date indicators with a small amount of sceptisism built in.

The bigger picture is now emerging

We can now fairly acurately tell what the LR figures will show for feb release (sept actual) march (oct actual) and april (nov actual)

Feb release = 0 to -.5%

march release = -.5% to -.8%

April release = -.5% to -.8%

Or there abouts.

As I said on last months report the bigger picture is emerging and the Land registry figures should be relatively easy to predict within tolerances.

[DisplayNameChanged]

Marmalade sandwiches

Yes, how did you guess?

Now I just need some desert, oh ice cream, look, across the road is an ice cream van!

[Warwick-Watcher]

Seven out of the ten listed regions are negative. My guess is that top end London properties are bolstering the overall figures.

East Midlands was -3.3% last month and only +0.5% for the past 12 months. It should be the first region to go YoY negative next month, followed closely by Wales.

Watch that map on P6 turn a sickly shade of yellow during the next 3 months !

[Jason]

Signature updated.

Looks like most of the main indices are red...

[Disillusioned]

Dont you just love the way that almost all the reports on falling house prices seem to end with the lines ' which mean the BOE is likely to cut rates next month' or 'increasing pressure on the MPC to cut rates.' Its just repeated mindlessly as though it were accepted wisdom. House prices fall therefore rates must be cut - not a second to pause for thought and consider wether or not it might be a good thing and what the implications of cutting rates might be.

Well I suppose they needed a new mantra, now that 'House prices only ever go up' isn't cutting the mustard.

[Sonic the Hedge Fund]

Signature updated.

Looks like most of the main indices are red...

Thanks Jason

With these side by side, notice how the indices are tilted, with the 'leading' indicator (RM, asking prices) pointing strongly down. at the other end of the scale the 'lagging' indicator (LR, sold prices) is still neutral.

Does this show that the rate of decline is accelerating?

[Willy Weasel]

East Midlands was -3.3% last month and only +0.5% for the past 12 months. It should be the first region to go YoY negative next month, followed closely by Wales.

Watch that map on P6 turn a sickly shade of yellow during the next 3 months !

Presumably they will have to start adding shades of red to show price falls

[bazzzzzzz]

biggest collapse in sales volumes below £250k

so the higher value sales , >£300k , having a proportionally bigger impact on the average values...

these higher value sales are hiding price drops lower down in the averages?

[thanks to RB for this, i believe he's been predicting this for a long time...

That's right! Since 2004!

[DoctorJ]

Anyone commented on the 21% drop in volume yet?

Is this crash territory?

[bazzzzzzz]

But this is soooo slow, no wonder we talk about gold, monoliners, credit derivatives, hyperinflation, deflation, the price of bread, dollar dying etc etc.

What is there to say about houses ? They have gone down a tiny bit last month for a change.

I think I should do what real bears do, go into hibernation, wake me up when we are at 50% down.

Indeed.

It could be another 6 months at least before we are yoy negative.

If we're lucky.

[Converted Lurker]

Anyone commented on the 21% drop in volume yet?

Is this crash territory?

I reckon if you look at page 12 of the 16 it gives you a good indication that, in terms of volumes and the fall off, we're nowhere near yet. We'd need to see a repeat of the pattern (NSA) which developed in 2004; crashing from 130k to 50k transactions. The line just isn't that steep yet is it?

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...237077Fhpir.pdf

[Converted Lurker]

Indeed.

It could be another 6 months at least before we are yoy negative.

If we're lucky.

nope, two more monthly losses of minus 1% (highly probable) would take us there, or thereabouts.

[Balloonist]

I've had a look at the percentages of houses that have been sold for certain prices and it makes interesting reading.

Two months ago the average price was £184,346

Today it is £184,469

But if you have a look at the figures you get an interesting result.

Two months ago 74.3% of all houses sold were below £250K

Todays figures show 75.4% of all houses sold being below the same £250K barrier.

This is how the figures break down if anyone's interested.

Price Bracket         Oct 2007  Aug 2007Under 50,000	        0.80%	0.68%50,001 – 100,000	11.24%	11.06%100,001 – 150,000	24.10%	23.44%150,001 – 200,000	22.36%	22.15%200,001 – 250,000	16.93%	17.01%250,001 – 300,000	7.22%	7.39%300,001 – 400,000	8.79%	9.07%400,001 – 500,000	4.07%	4.27%500,001 – 600,000	1.49%	1.57%600,001 – 800,000	1.61%	1.72%800,001 – 1,000,000	0.64%	0.80%1,000,001 – 1,500,000	0.45%	0.52%1,500,001 – 2,000,000	0.16%	0.19%Over 2,000,000	        0.13%	0.14%

[redgenieuk]

The latest group to make such a prediction, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5%, or £11,000, during 2008.

Dont you love the BBC.

[crashmonitor]

HA HA HA!!! I've just fallen off my chair with laughter!

Yesterday we had -6.8% for London, and you're heralding a measly 0.6 rise in LR figures (which lag by the way) as 'fighting on'!

Brilliant!

The various stats pick up different stages of the selling process.This one is the laggard and reflects completions in November followed by a further dealy to collate the stamping data.Rightmove is the most forward looking and represents property at point of first advert and approx. eight months ahead of the land registry stats.Pointless bulls crowing about this one,it is ancient history of sales agreed between vendor and buyer around August,some sales may even be pre-crunch.

Nevertheless the data delay explains a lot.I knew the East Midlands was bloody flat between August 2006 and August 2007 and now we have the stats to prove it.(actually more like meltdown in Nottingham)

Edited January 29, 2008 by crashmonitor

[frozen_out]

Anyone commented on the 21% drop in volume yet?

Is this crash territory?

Volume has been the elephant in the room on these reports for ages. Everyone pores over the minutae of fraction of a percent falls but the volume (paticularly the crash in volume at the low end) tells you all you need to know and has done for the last 6 months.

The housing market is scoobied.

Edited January 29, 2008 by frozen_out

[spline]

Anyone commented on the 21% drop in volume yet?

Is this crash territory?

Well, it’s the usual problem of LR failing to count in a timely manner – actual drop YoY (when corrected) is about 3%. We’ve covered this lots of times on HPC so we should all be familiar with it.

[ Hint: go an look at the old Dec 06 report, extract the Oct 06 volumes, and compare with the final tally from the Dec 07 report. Undercounting is typically about 18%, so you have to either use the original numbers or scale it back up to make a meaningful comparison. ]

Edited January 29, 2008 by spline

[crashmonitor]

Only halifax and the FT indicies still showing positive growth on the Home Page chart now.It will soon be 100% red and look like a bloodbath.

Edited January 29, 2008 by crashmonitor

[Converted Lurker]

Well, it’s the usual problem of LR failing to count in a timely manner – actual drop YoY (when corrected) is about 3%. We’ve covered this lots of times on HPC so we should all be familiar with it.

[ Hint: go an look at the old Dec 06 report, extract the Oct 06 volumes, and compare with the final tally from the Dec 07 report. Undercounting is typically about 18%, so you have to either use the original numbers or scale it back up to make a meaningful comparison. ]

have you got your pm facility off and do you answer emails, or is it just me that you ignore?

[spline]

have you got your pm facility off and do you answer emails, or is it just me that you ignore?

PM on its way.

[Benedict]

HA HA HA!!! I've just fallen off my chair with laughter!

Yesterday we had -6.8% for London, and you're heralding a measly 0.6 rise in LR figures (which lag by the way) as 'fighting on'!

Brilliant!

Actually the -6.8% was the previous month's rightmove number for london, since partially offset by a 3.6% increase in this month's rightmove figures.