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Sonic the Hedge Fund

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  1. This We are already well past the point where ever higher house prices became a political liability. The Tory attack on BTL is arguably a political calculation - priced out & tenants outnumber landlords by a large margin, so there are simply more potential votes by favoring the former. The election result can only push all of the main parties even further in that direction.
  2. Thanks for that FH - this one change totaly tips the supply/demand balance in certain sectors: 25-35 age will be motivated to stay at home; or co-habit so they can get their 'own' place together - reduces demand for single ocupier homes Landlords will be motivated to convert larger houses to HMO (because rents for larger houses have been squeezed most by 30th percentile rule, while demand for single rooms for 25-35 will grow) - this very quickly increases supply of housing units because one house can become 3 or 4 homes in just a few weeks Incidently having seen a number of homes ocupied by 25-35 year old LHA claiments (think 8 tiny deathtrap flats jammed into a 3 story town house with absolutley no regard for safety, sanitation or buliding regs) I would say many would be better off in a properly regulated HMO! Of course their existing scumlords are now screwed....couldn't happen to a nicer bunch
  3. West Herts, I only saw prices going up too....until yesterday!
  4. Just noticed on Rightmove rents in my area have PLUMETED since new year (been checking recently cos LL is pushing for an increase) Before Christmas could find no decent 3 beds in my area on for under £1200PCM, but now they start at £825, even very nice four bedders on for just a grand....loads of big reductions and cheap new listings showing on the Bee So what's happened since yesterday? LHA was cut! In my area the LHA cut on 3&4 bedders seems to amount to about 20% in cash terms. Wishing my Landlord a happy new year, and good luck with that rent hike....
  5. Apologies if already posted but I caught this little gem on late night cable TV It's a hilarious parody of property shows, tongue in cheekily extolling the 'virtues' of various sh1tholes
  6. Fair points - but these are western retailer domestic business issues not producer inputs As per you last point the selling price is what the market will bear; more influenced by the state of domestic demand than offshore production costs. What's likely given recent trends is that the step rise in cost of essential commodities (driven by Chinese inflation) will squeeze discretionary spending and hence retailers will have pressures from both ends of the equation. The far east margin multiplier is coming to an end it seems. For a country with an economy based on Housing and Shopping I guess we are looking pretty f*cked
  7. I agree People seem to have forgotten about the enormous post-securitisation funding gap that was temporarily filled by SLS that cannot now be renewed due to rising inflation The BoE have painted themselves into a corner
  8. Surely the impact should be minimal, since the producer's wage cost is such a minuscule input to the retail price in a western shop? I guess the figures vary, but for example a 10% rise in a 10% price component (producer wages) is a mere 1% on the overall price, and TBH I would be surprised if the producer's wages were as much as 10% of that
  9. If this is the impact of mere expectation of rate rises, just imagine the carnage an actual rate rise will bring..... ....proof, if it's needed that ultra low rates have propped up an unsustainable market.
  10. The problem is welfare not pay levels A welfare system that started out as a 'safety net' based on humanitarian goals has become 'net equality' based on socialist ideals Welfare equalisation has removed much of the incentive to train and work hard; those who prosper in this new world do so for the most part by trampling on others (e.g. bankers). Developing economies such as China and India don't have this problem (because they don't have any welfare) hence they are building a hugely skilled and motivated workforce. This book explains the problem rather well.
  11. IIRC mortgage approvals are offers, not completions, so I wonder how many previously agreed sales will fall through as a result of withdrawn mortgage deals? e.g. buyer has to pull out because they can no longer get the mortgage deal they expected Lowest ever approvals minus plenty of deals falling through must equal the worst possible conditions on record for the property market
  12. By contrast as renter scum we have thrice been able to move rapidly to secure the schools of choice for our two children (primary and secondary) We live in a delightful location (scenic but very close to schools and all amenities) in a house at least twice the size of that we previously owned, with a spare room where previously the children had to share, not to mention spare cash for luxuries such as holidays. So I think it's fair to say that our accidental STR has significantly enhanced my offspring's childhood experience and future prospects Family and friends often comment on how comfortable a situation we have, then fail to see the irony in following this by asking when we will settle down by buying a house. You can't reason with such illogical bigots - my wife's friend recently asked why we were 'wasting money buying new carpets for our landlord'. I pointed out that we couldn't afford new carpets when we had a mortgage. I think people just confuse the relative utility of possession and ownership - many now see leasing a car as a smart option (against buying) but seem unable to extend this logic to housing
  13. Makes perfect sense for the retailer, note the phrase 'product cycle' King Gilette (inventor of the disposable razor) said (I paraprase) 'if you make a product that wears out quickly, then the customer has to buy another, and another'
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