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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. EDM, apologies for coming to this late and not catching up on the thread properly, I'm sure you've probably answered this already. How do you see policy changing to put the brakes on once the other factors switch to being inflationary rather than deflationary? I'm keeping my fingers crossed that they'll throw money into the system now while any impact would only be to lessen deflation rather than raise inflation and then once things start to turn shut off the printing presses and introduce a series of increasing capital requirements for banks to slow any growth in lending. I think that should work reasonably well, base money supply increases to compensate for the banks choosing to lend lower multiples, then once the banks start choosing to lend higher multiples again they're restricting in their bullishness by higher capital requirements and overall the broad money supply stays reasonably static.
  2. You forget that non smokers would be dragged to such places at times if they wanted to spend any time with their smoker friends.
  3. Ah right, so the relevant points are the ones you care about but weren't aware of? It's all about you! They have a "how to use this data" bit and they do point out that there are exclusions from the data. If you need to know exactly what's in there you can always research it more. I'd say you're a pretty niche requirement to cater for. The vast majority of people don't really give a ******. The vast majority of the people who do care would do a bit of research themselves. That only really leaves you.
  4. They don't. They explain it on the land registry website, they explain it on the calnea analytics website. You're seriously expecting the BBC to publish that level of detail? Why on earth would they, hardly anybody is interested and those who are interested can go to land registry. They do cite land registry as the source, before the big "The BBC makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the above information and accepts no liability (including for negligence) in respect of any of the above information" disclaimer that allows them to just put something together without checking it or clarifying it. If data definition is your job and you're getting all het up because a handy user friendly portal on a mass media provider hasn't taken the time to copy across the detailed data methodology even though that methodology is available with minimal effort then I'd say you're in the wrong job.
  5. Dude, it's not like you're using them for anything important. And if you were and you weren't 100% clear on the small print why not ask or google? It says court order sales, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume that any end user of information where the specific details actually matter would be aware that reposessions were included there. The land registry gives pretty good information on what they do and how they do it, there's a 25 page document on their methodology even. And there are limits on the level of detail you can really go into without doing more harm than good, better a brief summary that people read than a massively specific document that people don't.
  6. Such a scandal! They've only stated it clearly in their methodology for anyone who could actually be bothered doing any research for the last decade, I feel DECEIVED! I think it's a perfectly reasonable approach. If people can't be bothered to understand what an index actually represents then they should just STFU really. It represents open market, non auction sales. If one understands that what's the problem? Take it for what it is, then make your own assessment of how the auction prices may vary, and what proportion of properties are sold at auction if that's what you need to know. For most people, the concern is what they could get selling their property in the normal way, and they want figures that address that. If auction properties are selling at enough of a discount and in sufficient quantities that it impacts the open market prices achieved then the figures will reflect that impact, other than that why would most people care what happens at auction?
  7. I'd imagine there'll be a few estate agent startups over the next few months. Any agent who's worked for an existing one that's gone bust or been part of a round of redundancies and who can't get another job may as well start up his own and try and poach what little there is. They could get pretty low rent costs and start out with no debt to service and they wouldn't be working anyway, what would they have to lose?
  8. I was hoping to book a hotel room somewhere really expensive in Krona on a card now to fix the krona cost in some way and then turn up there with a big sack full of their silly money to actually pay it, they never charge the card until you check out anyway. Then I can just watch the exchange rate for a month or two and try and take out the spending money when I feel most confident. Or make sure I book a room with everything included so I can miss out on a lot of spending money if needs be. I was looking at paying for flights in Krona too, but the airline site changed to talk to me in icelandic when I changed the currency and after that I was just pressing buttons randomly.
  9. Even better How would I go about it when they're 3000 to the pound though? Nowhere seems to sell them. Not looking to move life savings anyway, only to get a cheaper holiday so no big deal if I miss the bottom by a big margin.
  10. Does anyone know where to buy krona though? Thinking of a holiday there to take advantage of their temporary economic weakness, and at the 330 krona to the pound kind of rate that seems to be the current rate it'd be ******ing cheap, but nowhere seems to offer anything near that if I can even get any rate at all.
  11. First rate posts as always EDM, I hope that you're right
  12. I disagree. In some cases the short selling reveals true underlying weaknesses and hastens the arrival of reality, recently it seems to spark a market panic that itself defines the new reality.
  13. I think again it's all about incentives - from an evening standard article: It's not short selling itself that's the problem. It's that with the market as jittery and prone to panic as it is at the moment then people can take out short positions and then spread rumours to make their desired outcome come true. It's not about them revealing the truth, it's about spreading lies that create a market perception that then becomes the truth. And pocketing hundreds of millions as a result. And IMO they are doing that quite extensively. And ******** it can be prosecuted, how do you prove where a rumour starts and whether that rumour was unfounded or "giving clients honest investment advice". The investors with all the power are, to a man, complete bastards without the slightest hint of ethics so one can't simply rely on acceptable conduct in the market. The rumour mill is so vague and amorphous and intangible that one can't have any realistic prospect of prosecuting removing any even slight deterrant. The market is so jittery that they have unprecedented power to influence events in their favour. In the circumstances that means the only realistic option is to remove predatory investor's abilities to put themselves in a position where they'd have an incentive to spur the collapse of a company. It won't cure any underlying weakness or save companies where the investors would have been revealing the truth, it will remove the massive financial incentives to tell lies though.
  14. I agree, but IMO right now these aren't most circumstances, and even if HBOS wasn't impeccably healthy it was fundamentally healthy with just a bit of a cold that'll clear up soon enough. In normal times I'm all for short selling, but the markets are so prone to self fulfilling panic at the moment that there's real scope for market abuse.
  15. Nope, that's the case. But when the presence of significant short positions sparks a share price rout and market panic of sufficient magnitude that the trading partners of the bank cease normal dealings with them forcing them under then it stops being a victimless crime IMO.
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