Disaster On Moneysavingexpert

[peemac]

these clowns were caught up in a scam , they were probably caught out by the reduction factors .

No scam. Just stupidity. And greed.

[grey shark]

No scam. Just stupidity. And greed.

Thats what a scam involves , and they were caught out by the reduction factors not understanding how they work .

[dnd]

Just stick to gold coins then , i play betfair everyday it's easy to make ALMOST risk free trades , but you must know what your doing and have a opinion , lay a horse at 5 for £ 10 back it back at 6 for the £10 gives you a free bet , these clowns were caught up in a scam , they were probably caught out by the reduction factors .

Hmm, yes, it's clear to me now....

[Guest mattsta1964]

No scam. Just stupidity. And greed.

I just read those 2 threads and I'm gobsmacked

I love the guy saying, 'I gave up smoking a few weeks ago. I think I need to smoke a whole packet now ffs'

[Guest muttley]

That's why I posted it really. A bubble in microcosm, and on MSE. Shows the mentality of these people.

It also shows the get-rich-for-doing-nothing attitude that is so prevalent in the UK today. Christ, does no-one work at a job nowadays.

Nice to see the government joining in by relaxing the gambling laws.

[Jason]

Hmmm, why is all this fuss kicked up today? Was the software just released today or something?

I'm a little confused how people only lost money today?

[christhpc]

What a bunch of IDIOTS. Jumping in pumping massive lay bets and then crying when it all goes Pete Tong and they have to actually fund their liabilities? Well, I don't quite follow exactly what's happened here, I only skimmed the threads - but the basic thing is they were exploiting some bug/feature that allowed them to bet money they didn't have in their Bet Fair accounts, right? If that's the case then maybe this issue isn't quite as clear cut as it could be.

I suspect Betfair will just take the hit for this. Despite how much I'd love to see these fraudulent scummers being chased-up for their debts, I doubt that would be legally enforceable. So, refunds of stakes for everyone that bet, and write-offs for accounts that went negative? What a mess.

[TeddyBear]

How on earth can a website devoted to saving people money having forums about betting?

My thoughts exactly.

[grey shark]

Hmmm, why is all this fuss kicked up today? Was the software just released today or something?

I'm a little confused how people only lost money today?

Most of betfair is software or bots people buy this stuff but some don't know how to use it , if your a manual trader you can catch some of them out at the wrong prices or set traps in weak markets for there software , software/bots are hated by all manual people on betfair , this sort of thing happens quite a lot on betfair . IF your just a small punter wanting a few quid on then your perfectly safe though . Betfair is NOT like your traditional bookmaker , you can trade posistions a bit like trading shares but instead your trading a football game or horses in a race , there are dozens of markets to play , you just choose one you can find a edge in or specialise in a certain sport .

[Dr Doom]

...or set traps in weak markets for there software

aha...so was it you that caused this?

[BoomBoom]

On BF liability is limited to your balance so I don't see what all the fuss is about. Betfair don't have a leg to stand on.

[evictee]

A friend of mine makes half a million a year on betfair using arbitrage and software he's written.

No he doesn't.

[It is different this time]

As you don't have credit terms with bet fair, what's to stop you just leaving. I don't think bet fair could legally get the money off you (IIRC gambling debts are not enforceable by the courts).

I agree with you Betfair won't have a leg to stand if they chase those people, You can't bet online on credit terms. You have to have a cleared funds avaliable at the time of bet therefore, most likely, those people'll only lose the cleared funds they had at the time of betting, I know where Williams Hill would tell me to go if I tried to put £100 on a game with £50 balance

[ravenglass]

No he doesn't.

What makes you think that?

[peemac]

Well, I don't quite follow exactly what's happened here,

It's quite difficult to explain.

Imagine you are a bookie, taking bets on the toss of a coin. and you offer odds of 1.9 on each outcome.

Now imagine you have 2 people, one bets £1 heads and one bets £1 tails, as a bookie you now have £2 in your pocket, but your maximum payout is £1.90. So you have 10p profit, regardless of the outcome. You can now use that 10p profit to cover liabilities on other bets you take, making even more profit.

Now imagine, for some reason (say you have a dodgy coin) one of the outcomes is impossible and you have to give the person that backed heads his money back. You now only have £1, but still face a potential payout of £1.90. You have already used 10p to cover other liabilities, so instead of being in guaranteed profit, you now have a potential loss of £2 and a maximum win of 90p. A much worse position, if you extend this to markets with multiple selections, and multiple non-runners its possible to lock in a guaranteed loss (which is what happened here).

I have to say I agree with people who say they won't have to cover their full liabilities, although anyone who did have anything in their betfair account won't have anymore.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

Has a small player on betfair (very small player) I would be interested in finding out who the largest and second largest player is.

Well I'm not going to tell you that but I think the largest are some guys in Belgium (or similar country) who bet on football _massively_. They are a combination of pretty intense mathematicians and gambers, as you'd expect.

Can't be long before the city catches on. All those brains and tax free...

[peemac]

Well I'm not going to tell you that but I think the largest are some guys in Belgium (or similar country) who bet on football _massively_. They are a combination of pretty intense mathematicians and gambers, as you'd expect.

Can't be long before the city catches on. All those brains and tax free...

At a guess the same guys who are writing bots for investment banks are also writing bots for betfair. The money to be made is huge.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

No he doesn't.

Yes he does.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

At a guess the same guys who are writing bots for investment banks are also writing bots for betfair. The money to be made is huge.

You'd be surprised. My friend's software nails pretty much anyone that challenges him. He makes money from all of them and they give up. If I had the brains I'd do it myself.

[since the beginning]

Betfair is an exchange and the way I understand it Betfair themselves have no position. When these people thought all this money was being handed out did they no realise that someone else must be 'covering' this money.

For instance if I lay a bet that offers 200/1 for Charlton winning the league and cover £200 someone can bet only bet £1. These people must have thought everyone else on Betfair was stupid for in order for these bets to happen someone had to lay the bet and someone take up those odds. Surely the alarm bells must have started ringing.

Great example about the housing market though. Apart from defaults there has to be a seller and a buyer, i.e. someone gets screwed in the housing market that is new buyers after all even though money is being 'created' hand over fist it still isn’t free money for us!!

[evictee]

All this "a friend of a friend makes a fortune arbbing on Betfair", it's just an urban legend, I've heard it again and again. There are no arbs to be made on Betfair. How can there be, it's a single market.

Maybe it's possible though some kind of fantastic sporting insight to consistently beat the market by taking a position, though frankly I doubt it.

And no, it wouldn't be tax free either.

[peemac]

All this "a friend of a friend makes a fortune arbbing on Betfair", it's just an urban legend, I've heard it again and again. There are no arbs to be made on Betfair. How can there be, it's a single market.

Maybe it's possible though some kind of fantastic sporting insight to consistently beat the market by taking a position, though frankly I doubt it.

And no, it wouldn't be tax free either.

Deal with the simple point first: Gambling winnings are tax free, if they weren't then gambling losses would be tax deductable and they aren't.

On the point of arbs on betfair they do exist, occasionally and briefly. It's not really a single market, arbs can even exist across different markets on the same event. Fluctuations in odds during play can also be exploited. How much money is it possible to make doing this? Anyones guess really but massive amounts of money change hands on betfair every week. It's my guess that a few large players are raking in the lions share (as with everything else in life), I wouldn't be surprised if the bookies are trading their positions on betfair too. It really has become a large, complex beast.

[ca-uk]

Yep, arbs do exist, but they normally allow you to make a couple of pound.

I did an experiment a couple of years back when arb'ing wasn't such common internet knowledge and spending about 3 hours a day arbing (on bookies as well as the exchanges) brought in about £800 to £1000 per month - so 60 hours a month was bringing in about £16/hour.

At the time i didn't think it was too bad, and my winnings were also bumped up by a couple of lucky mistakes, meaning over the three months then i made an additional £2k.

However, i concluded the risks and effort outweighed the reward. For example, when placing a bet with a bookie they can later cancel your bet up to the point of an event starting, pretty much without giving a reason. The reason they normally state is a mistake in the odds, but often the only mistake is probably that they miscalculated.

For example, on a football match you would be placing a bet each way, quite often of £1000 each to make just £16 - if one of the bookies subsequently cancelled one of the bets you are exposed and left trying to cover.

There is no such thing as a guaranteed win - hopefully this will also be true on the housing front.

[grey shark]

All this "a friend of a friend makes a fortune arbbing on Betfair", it's just an urban legend, I've heard it again and again. There are no arbs to be made on Betfair. How can there be, it's a single market.

Maybe it's possible though some kind of fantastic sporting insight to consistently beat the market by taking a position, though frankly I doubt it.

And no, it wouldn't be tax free either.

Your just the sort of muppet to be found on Money Savings Expert crying about why your so much in debt , you clearly no nothing about gambling , arbing , taking posistions on betfair etc. etc. Muppet of the day , congratulations

Every horse race today ,and it's only a moderate days racing will have over a million pounds traded .

A 5 day cricket test match will have 20-30 million traded .

Arsenal v Chelsea yesterday not sure how much traded there but if you include all markets on that match it must be well over 10 million , theres plenty to be made if you put the hours in trading , arbing etc. TAX FREE as well

[desertorchid]

Yep, arbs do exist, but they normally allow you to make a couple of pound.

I did an experiment a couple of years back when arb'ing wasn't such common internet knowledge and spending about 3 hours a day arbing (on bookies as well as the exchanges) brought in about £800 to £1000 per month - so 60 hours a month was bringing in about £16/hour.

At the time i didn't think it was too bad, and my winnings were also bumped up by a couple of lucky mistakes, meaning over the three months then i made an additional £2k.

However, i concluded the risks and effort outweighed the reward. For example, when placing a bet with a bookie they can later cancel your bet up to the point of an event starting, pretty much without giving a reason. The reason they normally state is a mistake in the odds, but often the only mistake is probably that they miscalculated.

For example, on a football match you would be placing a bet each way, quite often of £1000 each to make just £16 - if one of the bookies subsequently cancelled one of the bets you are exposed and left trying to cover.

There is no such thing as a guaranteed win - hopefully this will also be true on the housing front.

I am presently undertaking the same experiment and I think your returns are spot on and match my experiences over the last 6 months. Mistakes can be made and they can prove VERY costly if not closed out quickly. With traditional bookies they soon cotton on that your an arb punter and swiftly monitor your account closely. Some bookies will only accept phone bets (and change the odds) or set maximum stakes on your account. They basically make life very difficult. Its still possible though but takes time and efffort.

Betfair ive always considered a different beast. the market tends to be so efficient that only only small gains can be made and the commission soon eats into that. Specialisation is the key across a limited range of bookies.