Disaster On Moneysavingexpert

[TwentyOneEleven]

For example, on a football match you would be placing a bet each way, quite often of £1000 each to make just £16...

What if the game ended in a draw ... surely you'd lose £2k?

Just got in and read through the MSE threads. I don't know whether to laugh or cry ... the level of stupidity of some people seems to get worse each day!

Edit: On the subject of gambling losses, just had a flick through the Betfair forums (had an account for ages but never looked at them!) and came across this one ... http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/...iMessageCount=2 ... £22k down in 2 days!!! Not preaching, but the level of debt some people get in to is scary!

Edited February 26, 2007 by TwentyOneEleven

[ARIMA]

Exactly. He doesn't. I offered him investment capital early on. He said "no thanks". He employs a couple of people as well who, although they are on profit share, have no stake in the business.

I find it amusing to be on the end of the "complete fantasy" comments. The person involved didn't believe it either, and he ended up being paid for the initial work by the trader he was in partnership with. He's been surprised by how easy it was, but then he's a ludicrously clever Cambridge maths grad.

I have a lot of sympathy with the sceptics, but no-one has said why this could not be true. With bookies, they can stop you betting. Betfair, by contrast, want you to bet more and more because it will increase liquidity, win or lose.

I work in internet gambling software, so I know whereof I speak.

This sounds strangely familiar - not talking a surname beginning with F ?

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

This is just an internet pawn racquet.

Bet he gets paid by cheque mate.

[ca-uk]

What if the game ended in a draw ... surely you'd lose £2k?

no, because you have different odds on each eventuality and you stake different amounts on each. that's where the arb exists - when the combination of odds whilst backing each option can result in a no-lose bet.

in this case on mse, then they believed an arb existed but hadn't read the terms of what they were doing properly.

[the end is a bit nigher]

just to be contentious! If I were one of the MSE muppets I would be going after Betfair for my 'lost' winnings now - there is a function wich when used tells you what your winnings / liabilities are on each outcome of the event - my understanding is that for all the time prior to the non-starters being voided that this function was telling people they had a cert winner - now, regardless of whether or not there are to be non-starters later on, if Betfair's software was telling me I was guaranteed a winner and then suddenly I was making a loss, I would be doing a lot more than worrying about my loss, I would be after them for those promised winnings

[deadman]

I'd rather just not be one of the said 'muppets'.

[ca-uk]

betfair will be far more intelligent than the muppets.

the bets to be voided and conditions were clearly stated. the t&c's of betfair itself are probably watertight.

[the end is a bit nigher]

betfair will be far more intelligent than the muppets.

the bets to be voided and conditions were clearly stated. the t&c's of betfair itself are probably watertight.

indeed - but suppose you were new to all this and didn't fully understand the rules (or just hadn't read them properly) - there you are, innocently laying bets and Betfair's own system is telling you that you can't lose - the result on each outcome is green, in profit, you win regardless - then to compound your misery, not only do you not get the winnings you were promised, but you actually owe more than you have in your account, against Betfair's own rules and your agreement with them

Edited February 26, 2007 by the end is nigh

[Without_a_Paddle]

indeed - but suppose you were new to all this and didn't fully understand the rules (or just hadn't read them properly) - there you are, innocently laying bets and Betfair's own system is telling you that you can't lose - the result on each outcome is green, in profit, you win regardless - then to compound your misery, not only do you not get the winnings you were promised, but you actually owe more than you have in your account, against Betfair's own rules and your agreement with them

I must admit I laughed out loud when I read the first MSE thread. Not because they were unknowingly losing money but because of the sheer blind greed shown by one or two of them. I bet they couldn't press the 'gamble' buttons fast enough to 'win' all that free money.

What has surprised me the most after reading the aftermath threads on here and MSE is how clued up most people seem to be on this whole gambling lark.

Are you all closet gamblers?

I'm not ashamed to admit I know sod all about Betfair or online gambling and I've never set foot in a bookies in my life...

Edited February 27, 2007 by Without_a_Paddle

[the end is a bit nigher]

I'm not ashamed to admit I know sod all about Betfair or online gambling and I've never set foot in a bookies in my life...

You should be proud to admit it - there are many 'better' ways to use your money

I've just posted on MSE that I was on the winning side of a similar instance with one of the spread firms a couple of years ago - By coincidence I was looking at $/Y at the exact moment there was a 300 pip spike - what was interesting was that the spread firm's software allowed me to trade the price at a level which they would normally have off-set themselves - a few minutes later and the price returned to where it should have been and in theory, i was £10s of k in profit - needless to say they voided everyone's bets, both winning and losing, although it was their software which was at fault

As Betfair's software was clearly at fault in this instance, I am surprised they haven't voided all bets

[evictee]

These words of yours show to anyone who knows and understands gambling that you know sweet F all about the subject , no one in the UK as ever had to pay income tax on gambling winnings whether they won it from Betfair , lottery , bingo , pools , the bookies etc. etc .

Duke mate , your wasting your time with this joker .

a- secondary markets are exactly where it's at - if you can cut down the search space, you can get to the arbs relatively quickly

b- you can dodge income tax, if you set up a "software company" that sells its wares to a "betting syndicate"

I don't really understand your point about "the same pool of money...distributed between all new players".

Hmmm, getting mixed messages from the free-money camp here. Shark boy says no income tax applies, yet Duke's Kerching Man has an elaborate avoidance structure in place. Duke, maybe you'd better put your man in contact with Sharky for some money saving tax advice. Perhaps in return he could apply some Cambridge treatment to Sharky's maths and English language difficulties.

Duke, I do like your story but the fact that you don't understand the point about the finite pool of money sets alarm bells ringing. Surely if you've ever used Betfair you know that there's only a limited amount of money available at a given rate? All players must compete for that same opportunity.

Sharkster, I think it's time for you to put up isn't it? If you can't produce evidence of a single profitable arb then, much as I'm enjoying your attempts at personal abuse, in the absence of any substance whatsoever to your argument I'm afraid I'm going to have to leave you to learn about probability the hard way.

[homeless]

what your all describing is known in betting terminolgy as "over round"

this means you can place a bet on each outcome and the return is over 100%.

as betfair takes 5% of the winning outcome your over round has to be 100-105%

you also have to work out the amount to bet on each outcome to achieve a winnigh % ie if the odds are 2/1 and evens you will need to bet 2x as much on evens as 2/1 to achieve this.

the easiest way to bet and quite frankly the best is

1.open an account with every online bookmaker there is

2. get yourself about 5 computer terminals to allow each account to be open constantly

3.Now watch the odds of a particular event, and play the best odds scenario.

4.start say a 1000 stake which you bet across the ebst odds for each outcome you find on all the sites,placing the correct amounts on each ( you can get a special program/calculator for this)

now spend your life looking for value and placing the bets.

ie 1000 pounds stake

betfair get 5/1 on arsenal to win

paddy power get 1.7/1 for chelsea to win

bet666 get 6/1 the draw

so each bet must now give more than 1000 pounds return without you using up more than 1000 stake

so

5/1 bet 200 pounds = 1000 return

1.7/1 bet 588 pounds = 1000 return

6/1 bet 188 pounds= 1000 return

total bet 972 return 1000

so you would win 28 pound but less 5% if betfair was the winner in which case you would lose 28 pounds

so your better hunting for better odds, or trying elsewhere

it gets very very complicated when you start doing 8 or 10 outcomes ect like on horse racing

There are a few sites that do constant updated prices of an outcome showing the odds from every bookmaker, these are very valuable tools ive found for betting.

personally what i do is back the huge outsider in a football match like chelsea via qpr i would back qpr to start. lets say at 30/1 reason being its quite un-usual in the first 10-15 mins or so for a goal to happen(though it does) then the odds often get a little edgy as the game carries on, i then start laying it off on chelsea and draw as the game progresses, if the game lasts say 15 mins without a goal im very often in profit.

but everyone has there own idea, this one works for me.ie 600 pounds up over last year which aint to bad starting with 10 pounds:)

[this_prisoner_is_opting_out]

Christ on a bike - what on earth are MSE folk doing gambling?

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

Duke, I do like your story but the fact that you don't understand the point about the finite pool of money sets alarm bells ringing. Surely if you've ever used Betfair you know that there's only a limited amount of money available at a given rate? All players must compete for that same opportunity.

Well, duh, otherwise you could just make infinite amounts of money. His program is just the fastest at getting the arb.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

as betfair takes 5% of the winning outcome your over round has to be 100-105%

Not quite - the more you bet, the less Betfair's rake is.

the easiest way to bet and quite frankly the best is

1.open an account with every online bookmaker there is

2. get yourself about 5 computer terminals to allow each account to be open constantly

3.Now watch the odds of a particular event, and play the best odds scenario.

4.start say a 1000 stake which you bet across the ebst odds for each outcome you find on all the sites,placing the correct amounts on each ( you can get a special program/calculator for this)

You can get computers to do this for you.

it gets very very complicated when you start doing 8 or 10 outcomes ect like on horse racing

You're getting warm. Think about football with all its related but distinct markets. First scorer, final score, winner, tournament winner etc.

personally what i do is back the huge outsider in a football match like chelsea via qpr i would back qpr to start. lets say at 30/1 reason being its quite un-usual in the first 10-15 mins or so for a goal to happen(though it does) then the odds often get a little edgy as the game carries on, i then start laying it off on chelsea and draw as the game progresses, if the game lasts say 15 mins without a goal im very often in profit.

You can make quite good money in in-running betting because it's so volatile. My favourite trick is betting on the better and more experienced player in a tennis match who is a set down.

[peemac]

That's because these stories are complete fantasy.

I'm not sure they are. Exagurated maybe, occasionally, but not complete fantasy. Like I said in a previous post Betfair has become a big complex beast, and people (aside from betfair) are making serious money. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind the the large bookies are also using betfair to trade their positions. Betfair turns over £50M PER WEEK last time I looked. That's a sizable amount of money by any standards.

I have read all three theads on MSE in their entirety on this.

I would not knock anyone in any way whatsoever for 'having a go' - its ones prerogative after all. What's pissing me off is the ***** who are now trying to avoid paying by all means necessary.

This is not 'victimless' where they are 'getting one over on the bookie', they've betted against someone else, lost and now don't want to pay.

Disgusting behaviour

That's the major problem I have with it. In all honesty though I think Betfair will pick up the tab on this one and put it down to a lesson learnt. I'm just surprised its taken this long for it to happen. If this does happen these people should consider themselves very lucky, very lucky indeed. Not being callous but I hope that betfair do go after them, just so that the lesson these people should have learnt sinks in. I doubt they will though.

And on that subject, if you did manage to make a living from it, a la Duke's half-a-million-pound-kerching man, income tax would most certainly be applicable.

Income tax DOES NOT APPLY to gambling winnings. Main income or not. When was the last time you heard of someone declaring a tenner they won on the lottery? Or declaring their online poker winnings? The lottery jackpot is won tax free. THERE IS NO TAX ON GAMBLING WINNINGS!!! If you don't believe me give the inland revenue a call.

b- you can dodge income tax, if you set up a "software company" that sells its wares to a "betting syndicate"

I didn't doubt your story duke, mainly because I know a lot of people in and around the industry on both sides of the equation, and I know the kind of methods being used and the figures bandied about by the big players. However, on this point either you're lying to us, or your friend is lying to you. THERE IS NO INCOME TAX ON GAMBLING WINNINGS!!!!!! If your friend is trying to devise elaborate avoidance schemes he's not as clever as you're saying, or your story is rubbish. I'm sorry but ring the IR if you don't believe me.

just to be contentious! If I were one of the MSE muppets I would be going after Betfair for my 'lost' winnings now - there is a function wich when used tells you what your winnings / liabilities are on each outcome of the event - my understanding is that for all the time prior to the non-starters being voided that this function was telling people they had a cert winner - now, regardless of whether or not there are to be non-starters later on, if Betfair's software was telling me I was guaranteed a winner and then suddenly I was making a loss, I would be doing a lot more than worrying about my loss, I would be after them for those promised winnings

Betfair aren't promising anything, betfair are essentially nothing in this other than software provider. It is up to the individual to understand the market, understand the software and limit their liabilities. Unfortunately for BF in this case I think they are let down by their T&Cs, and I think this market is poorly run, this is uncharacteristic of Betfair because they're a top notch outfit usually.

Edited February 27, 2007 by peemac

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

This sounds strangely familiar - not talking a surname beginning with F ?

Nope. Can't imagine he's the only one doing this and succeeding tho.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

I didn't doubt your story duke, mainly because I know a lot of people in and around the industry on both sides of the equation, and I know the kind of methods being used and the figures bandied about by the big players. However, on this point either you're lying to us, or your friend is lying to you. THERE IS NO INCOME TAX ON GAMBLING WINNINGS!!!!!! If your friend is trying to devise elaborate avoidance schemes he's not as clever as you're saying, or your story is rubbish. I'm sorry but ring the IR if you don't believe me.

It's not income tax if you are a business, is it?

[peemac]

It's not income tax if you are a business, is it?

So why does he run it as a business? That's hardly clever is it?

It's here, black and white:

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/bimmanual/BIM22017.htm

The fact that a taxpayer has a system by which they place their bets, or that they are sufficiently successful to earn a living by gambling does not make their activities a trade.

Pick the bones out of that.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

So why does he run it as a business? That's hardly clever is it?

It is if you employ people and want not to pay VAT on servers and office space.

[peemac]

It is if you employ people and want not to pay VAT on servers and office space.

Hold on a minute. If it's all done by PC why does he need office space and employees? This story is starting to lose credibility. Either you're not telling us the whole facts (even you must admit your story has come a long way from 'my mate makes £500k a year trading on betfair'). I've only got a small home and I could fit a load of PCs and servers in it. If I was raking in £500k a year, I could buy a nice fat country pad and devote a whole wing of my home to it.

I smell nonsense.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

Hold on a minute. If it's all done by PC why does he need office space and employees? This story is starting to lose credibility. Either you're not telling us the whole facts (even you must admit your story has come a long way from 'my mate makes £500k a year trading on betfair'). I've only got a small home and I could fit a load of PCs and servers in it. If I was raking in £500k a year, I could buy a nice fat country pad and devote a whole wing of my home to it.

I smell nonsense.

That's cos you don't understand what's involved. Gambling's just one thing he's interested in and involved in. He needs a _lot_ of bandwidth and guaranteed uptime. He's into other IT projects as well. He can't be bothered to do the day-to-day coding and maintenance himself.

He still wears crap clothes and rents. He's really not into materalistic things, just wants an easy life and to pursue what he's interested in. Farming out the effort to maintain the technical operation is just one aspect of that.

My original point only was that there's real money to be made on BF and through gambling if you know what you're doing. These people hardly advertise their success, for obvious reasons.

[abaxas]

That's cos you don't understand what's involved. Gambling's just one thing he's interested in and involved in. He needs a _lot_ of bandwidth and guaranteed uptime. He's into other IT projects as well. He can't be bothered to do the day-to-day coding and maintenance himself.

He still wears crap clothes and rents. He's really not into materalistic things, just wants an easy life and to pursue what he's interested in. Farming out the effort to maintain the technical operation is just one aspect of that.

My original point only was that there's real money to be made on BF and through gambling if you know what you're doing. These people hardly advertise their success, for obvious reasons.

Arbing, betfair trading etc etc.

It would be hard to make £500k a year however making a living is easy work. You just need to know your markets (something the MSEers sadly lacked).

Also if you have enough financial clout, you can distort the markets and create trading opportunities from nothing. This is risky but but providing your trading is +EV over time even losses are ok.

[grey shark]

Arbing, betfair trading etc etc.

It would be hard to make £500k a year however making a living is easy work. You just need to know your markets (something the MSEers sadly lacked).

Also if you have enough financial clout, you can distort the markets and create trading opportunities from nothing. This is risky but but providing your trading is +EV over time even losses are ok.

Yep , thats exactly what i do , although i DON'T make 500k a year , been on betfair full time for more than 3 years , just trade the numbers , specialise in a certain market or sport , keep the discipline and don't be greedy , you get out of it what you put in to it . The muppets on MSE were inexperianced no hopers , who were caught by the fact that the players withdrawn from the game did not have a REDUCTION FACTOR , but were available in the market at various odds making the lay book at 140% , but when they were withdrawn this brought the book down to 100% leaving them muppets with liabilities they could not cover .

PEEMAC ,

you are obviously correct about no tax , but your comment on betfair turning over 50 million a week is way out , it's more like at least 50 million A DAY , example of this would be there are 3 moderate race meetings today 20 races in total , by the time each race has finished therefore including in-running and the place market each race would of turnend over a average of over 1 million , so theres 20 million , tonight theres loads of football , so millions more , then all the other sports and financial markets , i reckon over 100 million matched just for today .

The problem of the FGS market with the reduction factors has happend in several markets over the years , i know cos i've made out of it , one poor thing about betfair is they don't listen to their customers , also put a thread up on one of the forums asking people what they think of betfair upgrades , **** up everytime .

[peemac]

That's cos you don't understand what's involved. Gambling's just one thing he's interested in and involved in. He needs a _lot_ of bandwidth and guaranteed uptime. He's into other IT projects as well. He can't be bothered to do the day-to-day coding and maintenance himself.

He still wears crap clothes and rents. He's really not into materalistic things, just wants an easy life and to pursue what he's interested in. Farming out the effort to maintain the technical operation is just one aspect of that.

My original point only was that there's real money to be made on BF and through gambling if you know what you're doing. These people hardly advertise their success, for obvious reasons.

I would argue that its because your original post was misleading, and made no attempt to clarify in what way exactly your friend was involved. The explantion in your last post is wildly different from the image of your friend you portrayed in your initial post.

Anyway, if he's not involved day to day how does he ever hear his software go 'kerching' and more to the point how do you? Don't his office staff get annoyed at all the PCs in the office making a daft 'kerching' noise? Wouldn't the pro coders he's employed remove the noise? after all if time is a precious as you make out in this operation why waste CPU cycles on a noise?

Still smelling nonsense.

you are obviously correct about no tax , but your comment on betfair turning over 50 million a week is way out , it's more like at least 50 million A DAY

You are right, my mistake

They used to have it on their front page but I couldn't see it anymore. I thought £50M a day sounded a bit big, but with your explanation it's more than feasible.

Edited February 27, 2007 by peemac