grey shark Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 I am presently undertaking the same experiment and I think your returns are spot on and match my experiences over the last 6 months. Mistakes can be made and they can prove VERY costly if not closed out quickly. With traditional bookies they soon cotton on that your an arb punter and swiftly monitor your account closely. Some bookies will only accept phone bets (and change the odds) or set maximum stakes on your account. They basically make life very difficult. Its still possible though but takes time and efffort.Betfair ive always considered a different beast. the market tends to be so efficient that only only small gains can be made and the commission soon eats into that. Specialisation is the key across a limited range of bookies. Dessie reincarnated , 4 king georges , gold cup , irish national bla bla ......... yes arbing is hard these days , bookmakers soon cuss you if you play with big money and limit you or close your account , they only want consistent losers not smart @rses who can take there profits away , also your faced with non runners and deductions and differant rules for bookies as opposed to betfair , but it can still be done , but there is loads to be made on betfair , specialise , discipline , find the edge , learn how to trade on there , take on the bots and software as they don't have a opinion they just track the percentages . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogbox Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Greed and stupidity.The ingredients for a big loss. About 6 months ago I did a few posts warning this lot of thier folly. I was branded a pessimist for my trouble. I pointed out that in the end the real winners are the bookies - afterall every town has several betting shops which can only mean the customers lose a lot more than they win. Reminds me of a Walter Mitty character I know who inists he has a foolproof system for fruit machines - of course you do dear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peemac Posted February 26, 2007 Author Share Posted February 26, 2007 About 6 months ago I did a few posts warning this lot of thier folly. I was branded a pessimist for my trouble.I pointed out that in the end the real winners are the bookies - afterall every town has several betting shops which can only mean the customers lose a lot more than they win. Reminds me of a Walter Mitty character I know who inists he has a foolproof system for fruit machines - of course you do dear It is true that in general customers lose a lot more than they win. There are however notable exceptions, I know a few people through my association with another forum who do make money through betting, believe it or not it is surprisingly simple. For anyone interested I suggest you get hold of the book ‘Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management’ by Joe Buchdahl. You need some rudimentary stats knowledge (and I do mean rudimetary) but he shows how you can exploit the way the bookies manage their risk to make a moderate yet steady yield. You might also like to learn the methods of slapdash. You'll have to do your own research on that one though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 (edited) You'd be surprised. My friend's software nails pretty much anyone that challenges him. He makes money from all of them and they give up. If I had the brains I'd do it myself. Don't understand that bit... For example, on a football match you would be placing a bet each way, quite often of £1000 each to make just £16 - if one of the bookies subsequently cancelled one of the bets you are exposed and left trying to cover. Going by this example and for your mate to make a million a year - he'd have to bet £62,500,000 - ie 62 million pounds a year I can think of easier and safer ways to invest that kind of money... Edited February 26, 2007 by dnd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 (edited) All this "a friend of a friend makes a fortune arbbing on Betfair", it's just an urban legend, I've heard it again and again. There are no arbs to be made on Betfair. How can there be, it's a single market.Maybe it's possible though some kind of fantastic sporting insight to consistently beat the market by taking a position, though frankly I doubt it. And no, it wouldn't be tax free either. er urban legend, but a friend does it.... It is tax free and not spectacular, 20-30 quid a day (4-10 quid a race, being selective with races). He just creams a little bit of money off the idiots (and the bots). You can be stung, but you need to be careful and choose the right markets (dont do anything in a market where the rules can change like in this example). Its betting, if somone says there making alot of money there lieing. If you could make alot of money, lots of people will instantly spot it and you wont make as much money. However you can make a little bit of money relativly risk free for quite alot of effort. Of course the biggest winner is betfair.... Edited February 26, 2007 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 er urban legend, but a friend does it.... It is tax free and not spectacular, 20-30 quid a day (4-10 quid a race, being selective with races). He just creams a little bit of money off the idiots (and the bots). You can be stung, but you need to be careful and choose the right markets (dont do anything in a market where the rules can change like in this example). Its betting, if somone says there making alot of money there lieing. If you could make alot of money, lots of people will instantly spot it and you wont make as much money. However you can make a little bit of money relativly risk free for quite alot of effort. Of course the biggest winner is betfair.... Yeah, I'm up on betfair on tennis and chess (two things I know a bit about), but it's a lot of work. My friend makes little bits of money all day every day. His machine even emits a "kerching" noise when he's made an arb. The amount of money required to do this is truly mind-boggling. His business partner mortgaged his house, he used the profits from a previous venture to find his side. Literally millions and millions get turned over. He meets with Betfair techies regularly to help them provide a better service to him. He also has scrapers going on 40 gambling web sites to help him find arbs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 About 6 months ago I did a few posts warning this lot of thier folly. I was branded a pessimist for my trouble.I pointed out that in the end the real winners are the bookies - afterall every town has several betting shops which can only mean the customers lose a lot more than they win. Reminds me of a Walter Mitty character I know who inists he has a foolproof system for fruit machines - of course you do dear Betfair are not bookies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTLlivingthedream Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 How on earth can a website devoted to saving people money having forums about betting? Martin Lewis has lost even more respect from me now. You have one of the strangest signatures.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Don't understand that bit... His software gets to the arbs faster, and the other bots lose money as a result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perfectionist Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Still have great trouble believing the good old "my friend makes a fortune" stories !! I can see how a guy could make a grand a month from working the sytem and putting in the hours ..... but at the risk of losing it all if things go pear shaped ..... but "my mate makes squillions a second" is just b0ll0x !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Still have great trouble believing the good old "my friend makes a fortune" stories !!I can see how a guy could make a grand a month from working the sytem and putting in the hours ..... but at the risk of losing it all if things go pear shaped ..... but "my mate makes squillions a second" is just b0ll0x !! Each individual arb is a tiny proportion of his total funds. So the entire risk is not in a single transaction. Each transaction contains no risk if successfully carried out, since it's an arb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 (edited) Still have great trouble believing the good old "my friend makes a fortune" stories !!I can see how a guy could make a grand a month from working the sytem and putting in the hours ..... but at the risk of losing it all if things go pear shaped ..... but "my mate makes squillions a second" is just b0ll0x !! there is no risk of loosing it all it all 1) If your sensible and dont get greedy 2) you remove money from betfair on a regular basis Edited February 26, 2007 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evictee Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Still have great trouble believing the good old "my friend makes a fortune" stories !! That's because these stories are complete fantasy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARIMA Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 That's because these stories are complete fantasy. Regarding the main topic perhaps best to consider the age old wisdom - if someone had actually written a program which made money somehow (trading, betting whatever) why the f*ck would they share it with anyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Regarding the main topic perhaps best to consider the age old wisdom - if someone had actually written a program which made money somehow (trading, betting whatever) why the f*ck would they share it with anyone else. Exactly. He doesn't. I offered him investment capital early on. He said "no thanks". He employs a couple of people as well who, although they are on profit share, have no stake in the business. I find it amusing to be on the end of the "complete fantasy" comments. The person involved didn't believe it either, and he ended up being paid for the initial work by the trader he was in partnership with. He's been surprised by how easy it was, but then he's a ludicrously clever Cambridge maths grad. I have a lot of sympathy with the sceptics, but no-one has said why this could not be true. With bookies, they can stop you betting. Betfair, by contrast, want you to bet more and more because it will increase liquidity, win or lose. I work in internet gambling software, so I know whereof I speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJJ Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 I have read all three theads on MSE in their entirety on this. I would not knock anyone in any way whatsoever for 'having a go' - its ones prerogative after all. What's pissing me off is the ***** who are now trying to avoid paying by all means necessary. This is not 'victimless' where they are 'getting one over on the bookie', they've betted against someone else, lost and now don't want to pay. Disgusting behaviour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r thritis Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Yeah, I'm up on betfair on tennis and chess (two things I know a bit about), but it's a lot of work. This is just an internet pawn racquet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJJ Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 <------- that way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 This is just an internet pawn racquet. Bet he gets paid by cheque mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Bet he gets paid by cheque mate. The returns are good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evictee Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Your just the sort of muppet to be found on Money Savings Expert crying about why your so much in debt , you clearly no nothing about gambling , arbing , taking posistions on betfair etc. etc. Muppet of the day , congratulations Every horse race today ,and it's only a moderate days racing will have over a million pounds traded . A 5 day cricket test match will have 20-30 million traded . Arsenal v Chelsea yesterday not sure how much traded there but if you include all markets on that match it must be well over 10 million , theres plenty to be made if you put the hours in trading , arbing etc. TAX FREE as well I'm sorry, could you just run that by me again? I'm in terrible debt and the reason for this is that I know nothing about gambling? Well, that's quite an interesting take on such matters but I think my debt or otherwise has very little relevance to the argument, much less than, for instance, your frankly bizarre distribution of punctuation which would appear to indicate signs of some sort of derangement. There are only two ways to make money from Betfair alone, these are: 1. Consistently know more about the sport/event than the market. 2. Be Betfair. Only when you start to bring in secondary markets do arbitrage opportunities emerge and even then they are very few and far between, and to those of you who believe you have identified some significant amount of money to be made you should remember that you are looking at the same pool of money, which would have to be distributed between all new players. So we're most certainly not talking about giving up the day job here. And on that subject, if you did manage to make a living from it, a la Duke's half-a-million-pound-kerching man, income tax would most certainly be applicable. Anyway, it's clear to me that any winnings you have made to date using your 'system' are either completely imaginary or a manifestation of a run of good luck plus a bad grasp of the maths. I'd love to be proved wrong but I am absolutely certain that you will not be able to post a single verifiable arbitrage opportunity which beats the Betfair commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eeyore Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Is this the kindergarden thread? Anyway, my brothers got a......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 (edited) There are only two ways to make money from Betfair alone, these are:1. Consistently know more about the sport/event than the market. 2. Be Betfair. Only when you start to bring in secondary markets do arbitrage opportunities emerge and even then they are very few and far between, and to those of you who believe you have identified some significant amount of money to be made you should remember that you are looking at the same pool of money, which would have to be distributed between all new players. So we're most certainly not talking about giving up the day job here. And on that subject, if you did manage to make a living from it, a la Duke's half-a-million-pound-kerching man, income tax would most certainly be applicable. a- secondary markets are exactly where it's at - if you can cut down the search space, you can get to the arbs relatively quickly b- you can dodge income tax, if you set up a "software company" that sells its wares to a "betting syndicate" They are not as far between as you think, especially if you factor in the other 40 bookies he deals with. They are grateful to be able to offload risk quickly and simply. I don't really understand your point about "the same pool of money...distributed between all new players". He gave up his day job. Others have tried to do the same, but they can't match his skills. Believe me, I would if I could, but I haven't the ability. Edited February 26, 2007 by the_duke_of_hazzard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey shark Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 income tax would most certainly be applicable . These words of yours show to anyone who knows and understands gambling that you know sweet F all about the subject , no one in the UK as ever had to pay income tax on gambling winnings whether they won it from Betfair , lottery , bingo , pools , the bookies etc. etc . it's all there on the inland revenue site . No point answering the rest of your written garbage if you didn't even know this , although i will remind you theres plenty of money to be made on betfair , if you know how Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey shark Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 (edited) a- secondary markets are exactly where it's at - if you can cut down the search space, you can get to the arbs relatively quicklyb- you can dodge income tax, if you set up a "software company" that sells its wares to a "betting syndicate" They are not as far between as you think, especially if you factor in the other 40 bookies he deals with. They are grateful to be able to offload risk quickly and simply. I don't really understand your point about "the same pool of money...distributed between all new players". He gave up his day job. Others have tried to do the same, but they can't match his skills. Believe me, I would if I could, but I haven't the ability. Duke mate , your wasting your time with this joker . Edited February 26, 2007 by grey shark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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