mikefluk Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 What do people think it will take to start a full blown property crash in the UK Answers below please ! To aid creativity I will tell you an amazing but apparently true story about how the Berlin Wall came down. I had always believed it was through years of top level negotiations between heads of State. I learned from a management guru on a works away day that it actually came about by two blokes having a conversation, whilst leant against the wall. One of the bricks loosened and they thought it would be a good idea to remove it. Spontaneously other people joined in and the rest is history. I will read all responses and award a 1st 2nd and third best in a week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lulu Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 (edited) To aid creativity I will tell you an amazing but apparently true story about how the Berlin Wall came down. I had always believed it was through years of top level negotiations between heads of State. I learned from a management guru on a works away day that it actually came about by two blokes having a conversation, whilst leant against the wall. One of the bricks loosened and they thought it would be a good idea to remove it. Spontaneously other people joined in and the rest is history. I thought it was David Hasselhoff that brought the Wall down? Edited September 8, 2006 by lulu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Mainwaring Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 A mixture of sustained monthly falls and credit tightening. The market is unstable (being so far above it's kong term stability point), and is venerable to an economic shock. It's only a matter of time before something gives it the economic equivalent of a dead leg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jethro Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 I think the A team will come over on a plane (BA is tricked into this bit........), land at some airfield in the middle of nowhere, then build some massive armoured car out of old metros, then go on a rampage to shoot up all the crooked estate agents. The ea's then run off and hide, no one is dead, cos this is the A Team, friendly family veiwing and all that. After this, there are no more ea's to ramp up prices, then voila! ready made crash! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 (edited) as soon as it costs an entire persons average salary to pay an average morgage (like the last crash)... either increased interest rates, or higher prices or a combination of the two..... Edited September 8, 2006 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assurbanipal Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 US recession will be this trigger, I think. US HCP and general recession will blow UK market like A - bomb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OverInflated Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 House prices wont crash, they will keep going up and up and up for ever and ever. Why? Well as someone told me today - Gordon Brown said it won't, some economists said it won't and also past performance isn't an indication of future performance (which means because it crashed in the past means it wont crash now). Which is why it won't crash. Everybody knows house prices only go up, thats what they said on the Repossession, Repossession, Repossession Show on channel 4. Hmm! or was that Foreclosure, Foreclosure, Foreclosure. Hmm! no sorry it was location, Location, Location. My mistake. Anyway, Fill ya boots with property and you will be laughing all the way to the bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ologhai Jones Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 I think the A team will come over on a plane (BA is tricked into this bit........), land at some airfield in the middle of nowhere, then build some massive armoured car out of old metros, then go on a rampage to shoot up all the crooked estate agents. The ea's then run off and hide, no one is dead, cos this is the A Team, friendly family veiwing and all that. After this, there are no more ea's to ramp up prices, then voila! ready made crash! I was considering tossing a suggestion into the mix, but there's no question in my mind: jethro is undoubtedly correct. It was the A-team last time, and I think it will be next time, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Della Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 It doesn't take any sort of trigger, it could happen because of boredom, some new fad, some world event, running out of money, property porn gets canceled, change of sentiment, because it's tuesday. The housing market is a house of cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustYield Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 What do people think it will take to start a full blown property crash in the UK yoy < 0 JY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neitherbullnorbear Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 What do people think it will take to start a full blown property crash in the UK A one woman protest movement against BTL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Patience to wait about 6 months and for FTBs to just say no they are NOT buying into Gordon's bubble at this late stage. Every house bought adds a few more minutes to Gordon's political career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Maybe it will never crash in the way we on this board hope it will, as some of you know, the governments worldwide are getting smarter and smarter at producing false statistics and other information, ie false CPI figures, false GDP figures and therefore they can conjure up what they want when they need it, so when HP's start too look a bit dodgy they will say 'CPI down' this month big time, and the accomplice in the way of the BOE will drop the rates and everyone is happy again, this is what has sustained it for so long. Of course in the long run the crash will be bigger due to this type of meddling, however maybe not for another few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim up north Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 (edited) Last time it happened as a Prime Minister who had won 3 elections was losing the plot and being forced out of office. Can't see that happening again....... Edited September 8, 2006 by grim up north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 the governments worldwide are getting smarter and smarter at producing false statistics and other information, ie false CPI figures, false GDP figures and therefore they can conjure up what they want when they need it Yeah, right. Let's see them conjure up a 50% cut in the cost of gas, decent houses at affordable prices and oil at $20 a barrel. They can create as many fake figures as they want, but real inflation is impossible to hide for long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OverInflated Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Its something they put in the water supply to 10 & 11 downing street. They have special water, that gives them special powers. When that special water runs out the houses prices will crash. Personally I think if either one of the following two events happen, the house market will crash. 1) Tony Blair resigns - this will cause the HPC or 2) Tony Blair doesnt resign - this will cause the HPC. So as long as neither of those two events happen, we should be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImA20SomethingGetMeOutOfHere Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 What it'll take is for the money to run out. With banks getting ever more creative with their lending this could take up to another two years IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickingIt Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 (edited) High Unemployment. Although we could have High Unemployment with High Employment. Low Employment then. and take everyones credit cards off them............... Edited September 8, 2006 by BrickingIt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest growl Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 The beginnings of the crash will happen between now and next July, when Bliar will hand the prime ministers job over to Gordon and Gordon will hand over the poison chalice of the economy to which ever ambitious fool wants it. Then Blair will have his ambition of being the longest served under his belt and Gordon can blame the falling economy on the new Chancelor. Then when they lose the next election Blair can retire to some island in the sun and write a book about the glory days of the labour government, and Gordon can join some economic policy commitee in Europe with a fat wage and boast about his miracle economy whilst taking swipes at the hard decisions that the next Tory government will have to make to sort out the mess our present buffoons of a government have left us in. Either way Bliar and Brownose will be larfing all the way to the bank! While millions suffer at the wasted opportunites of the stable and in credit economy we had in 1997. They will ask where has all the money gone? Those of us who watched and waited as bears will be able to continue with our lives in a bullish manner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 What do people think it will take to start a full blown property crash in the UK Answers below please ! I will read all responses and award a 1st 2nd and third best in a week The media to start leaking the truth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its time to buy Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 (edited) when the BBC starts making renovation programs on GOLD COINS presented by david dickinson Kruggers Do em up sell em on make a whacking profit Edited September 8, 2006 by notanewmember Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ETOPS773 Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 It will take a UK recession. That could, and most likely will, be triggered by a recession in the USA. Thats looking like it could be with us within the next 12-18 months and once it hits them, it hits us. I strongly believe that in another 18 months and things will be well on course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey shark Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 (edited) The media to start leaking the truth. Too right , and coupled with a 1% rise in interests in the space of a few months and this would then break many BTLers and the boom would go down like the Titanic . Edited September 8, 2006 by grey shark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikefluk Posted September 20, 2006 Author Share Posted September 20, 2006 The media to start leaking the truth. Best one liner - looks like this might already have started Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikefluk Posted September 20, 2006 Author Share Posted September 20, 2006 It doesn't take any sort of trigger, it could happen because of boredom, some new fad, some world event, running out of money, property porn gets canceled, change of sentiment, because it's tuesday. The housing market is a house of cards. This one gets my overall vote and one thing in particular caught my eye. "running out of money" The US relies on increasing liquidity from foreign countries just to keep afloat. There was a brief article in the Times yesterday that passed by unnoticed saying that the bonds take up in August by overseas investors fell. Only takes a crisis of confidence in The US economy for this to gather momentum and the US could default. Frightening really; what would then happen to the trillions invested in hedge funds around the world. Am I the only one who thinks we are all at the edge of a precipice and its only a matter of time before all this unwinds generating a major global catastrophie or am I misguided ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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