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House Price Crash Forum


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About Della

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    HPC Regular
  1. I see your half penny and raise you a quarter farthing. One old penny was worth 1/240th of a pound sterling, a farthing a 1/4 of a penny and a quarter farthing 1/16th of a penny or 1/3840th of a pound sterling. In modern money its purchasing power is equivilent to 2.2p using the retail price index or 19.8p using average earnings comparisons.
  2. Don't be silly, that's printed money, printing money is inflationary, everyone knows that! Now this German billion mark coin is worth 1,000,000,000,000 marks, what we would call a trillion marks, if only the germans had stuck to minting money, rather that printing and minting the hyperinflation they had would be unpossible.
  3. Sensible idea. Base it on gravel and call it "Rock Solid", a name like that would immediatly inspire investor confidence.
  4. Well yes of course, just as Quantatative Easing is not inflationionary because it is all ones and zeros and no actual printing happens...they have Quantatative Eased $2.325 trillion into existance. Minting is probably faster than QE so they can get the good effects of defecit reduction by minting trillions of dollars without it taking years like QE, or causing inflation like printing money would.
  5. On CNN: One of the people in the comments section in one of the articles about this sensible idea said this wouldn't be inflationary, so I guess it wouldn't be.
  6. Thank goodness you explained to me it's all about credit balances and not printing money, because I was getting worried there.
  7. In the olden days, (about 3 years ago,) it was thought that printing massive amounts of money was a stupid idea. You can just call me old fashioned.
  8. Well I did mention I fell asleep during the film, I think that is a pretty stinging critique.
  9. Watched Fast & Furious 5 yesterday, after falling asleep for a while, I decided to calculate how long it would take the US government to print the $100 million they were going to so much fuss to steal in the film. From what I thought I remembered they printed $2 billion a month, so these guys were trying to steal the equivilent of about 1.5 days of printing, thought it was a lot of fuss over something that took so little time to print, that sounded like so much...and gosh, arn't they're printing a lot of money. I came home and checked my figures, I found I had made a horrible mistake. They were actually printing about $75 billion a month, so the $100 million they were trying to steal was only worth 1 hour of printing. I then went on to reflect that the employment rate is such that in large areas in the US nearly 70% of working age adults don't have a job, and that in the collapsed Soviet Union nearly 100% of the population pretended to work...how effective was thier pretend work? Maybe 30% of someone hard working? So if the equation is that 100% of the population working at 30% = collapse, does 30% and the population working hard, and 70% with no job also equal collapse?
  10. Oh well, we'll be thrown to the sharks, or whatever, but America will be OK, you can be a fake American on the internet, and wave a miniture American flag, but people who actually live there won't care because you'll just be, as far as they are concerned, a nobody on some island somewhere. America is a big country where there are people with all sorts of pastimes and interests, posting on forums about various foreign countries, like Sweden, Narnia, Middle Earth or Britain. You get a different view of things when they are dealing with you as an outsider versus them thinking you are one of them.
  11. Ha ha! You've got a high opinion of Britians position, the last 65 years have been about American dominance, and British collapse, Britian is now pretty much as weak as it has ever been in the whole of it's existance (1707-2011), and the centrifugal forces within Britain are so strong that it is quite likely that it may cease to exist in the coming decades. If you had ever been to America, like I have, and talked in a perfect American accent like I can you would realise: They don't think about us. They don't understand us. They basically don't know where Britian is. They generally don't care if we live or die.
  12. I would wager what this rebel leader knows about oil geoglogy and the technicalities of oil production could be written on the back of a fag packet. Just because he says triple oil production doesn't mean it is going to happen. The current Libyan government has also said it wants to about triple oil production but it has been unable to do it for technical reasons.
  13. If you think holding stocks for 11 seconds is wrong...you're a communist. I am a long term investor, I hold my stocks for 15 seconds.
  14. More money has been promised to pay in terms of mortgages than can possibly be repaid, how will it pan out. You have to understand, the situation as it exists cannot persist, somebody is going to get wiped out, somebody is going to suffer, and each group will try to ensure it isn't them. Mass non-payment Scenario: It becomes the fashion to not pay your mortgage because it is kind of unaffordable anyway. This could be called a payment strike, mass default, mass action, debt strike or something like that. It will ride in on a wave, either organically person-person, through reaction to something in the news, or mediated through some social network. Assumptions: If enough people default at once then the systems to punish defaulting as they exist will seaze up or at least take multiple decades to deal with it all. Not everyone can go to jail because there ain't enough jail cells, and you can't chuck too many people out of their home since that would be highly destabalising to the society making revolution highly likley. You can probably assume printy-printy in both scenarios to some extent since that seems to be the knee jerk reaction to everything these days. Likely follow on: Scenario 1: Iron fisted government reaction (which mostly succeeds) - Government takes action to make punishing mortgage default much faster - There is a reaction to this government action either in the form of riots, revolution, removal from office, people physically attack policy makers. The stakes are very high so far as this issue is concerned so expect very strong reactions. - Goverment finds levers of power don't work very well because there is too much resistance to a resumption of the status quo ante. - Very difficult to get a mortgage afterwards - Too many people get dumped on the street at one time and they mass up and take on their enemies either in the form of riots, insurection, mass squating, carving out seperate states, marching on the capital. - House prices fall to 1-2.5 times earnings - Interest rates go higher - Major prison camp realted scandals, large amounts of people die in gulag. - Economy wildly unstable - Some of the economy dies, maybe upto 10-20%, growth laxidasical afterwards as large capital misallocations have NOT been corrected. - Something else happens later that has a similar effect as a mass payment default. Scenario 2: Non payment successs - Becomes impossible to get a mortgage since it can't be enforced - Houses prices drop to a level where someone could buy a house with less than one years income since otherwise they could never sell. A situation of totally static market will persist till this level is reached, the market cannot be totally illiquid because some houses must be sold quickly because of e.g. death of the homeowner. - Banks will go bankrupt, most of them. - Savings will be wiped out because a large part of them will in some roundabout way make to the assumption that people pay thier mortgages. - Working capital in buisnesses will evaporate leading to capital shortage related business failure, this might lead to a fast alteration in the economic system to stop this happeneing, some form of rationing. - Interest rates go very high, but it is all rather irrelivent since it is hard to get permission from a lender to be in debt anyway - Some of the economy dies, maybe upto 20-50%, growth very very strong afterwards as large capital misallocations have been corrected.
  15. <puts-pedant-hat-on><![CDATA[ There are several problems with what you just wrote, the end-tag should echo the name of the start tag and attributes in the element should have values, you can solve this by using dashes to unify the name of the element to give the same human readable result or by just correcting the XML structure. <puts pedant="" hat="" on=""> You didn't close that tag. </puts> ]]></puts-pedant-hat-on>
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