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House Price Crash Forum

mikefluk

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About mikefluk

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    HPC Poster
  1. Well said !! Incidentally the guarantee is underpinned by a korean travel agency guaranteeing just 5% of their annual tourist demand to mactan Island (from Korea alone) to Blue Coral Resort and Spa
  2. Wrong again my friend. There will be a new world order. After a global currency devaluation where USA and UK will become third world countries (you are right about debt) A new world currency to replace the dollar and a revaluation of gold. Debt will be inflated away (after current deflation which has been caused by monetary tightening 3 years ago) All existing paper currencies will be devalued by 10 to purge the debt and there will be a clamber to real assets such as gold oil and commodities. Property will benefit at that stage too. The new world powerbase will be China which is the worlds greatest creditor now (Just like USA all those years ago) and I suggest you my friend learn to speak chinese so you can ask them if they want their shoes shined
  3. I already have 2 hotel rooms in Scarborough catering for the retired generation. They have been yielding 12% steadily for the past 2 years so want to diversify away from the UK Also have syndicate membership in council housing in East Germany also doing well at the moment with a steadily increasing yield. Don't share your synopsis of the east and West mate. We are entering recession with lots of debt same as US Who do you think is financing that debt - our good old friends in the East that you still hold colonialship views on. You ar obviously unprepared for the massive wealth transfer that will happen between the West and the East, an event that will happen in my lifetime. The Phillipines is in the right place to benefit from this. All parties involved have long track records with a chain of hotels around the Eastern Hemisphere. The whole project is underwritten by a bond form Phillipines Government although I take on board comments re Boracay. I am not saying it is not without risk but if you look at Mactan Island where it is and Jan 2011 when it will be built it is not without opportunity either. if nayone however has reports about specific problems with the project or developers or anything else fort hat matter then I would like to know
  4. Thanks for this particularly as you live out there. Has anybody visited the numerous sites on the internet marketing this. The reviews in Singing Pig forums were more positive than here. I have got a solicitor checking out the ownership and rental guarantee issues in particualr that it comes with 60% developer finance who is also providing the guarantee on a back to back basis, Its only a studio for £59k within a hotel complex with its own beach. I would value a critique form anybody who has downloaded the brochure off the web, I can post the link if necessary but if you google bule coral resort and spa it will come up Thanks
  5. Hi Have just read details on this resort - (you can google it) with brilliant sounding returns Has anyone invested or any experinces here Would love feedback Thanks
  6. Hi I have just been reading about the green oil investment programme through a company called Viceroy Investments with offers of impressive returns of c 93% per annum Has anybody else heard about this or have any first hand experience of dealing with Green Oil investments or Viceroy Investments . Would love to hear from you Thanks
  7. I think you will find the only problem here is microbe trying to be clever
  8. There are very few independent financial analysts around. I spend a lot of time anlalysing fund performance and would recommend a balanced portfolio as follows : UK Equity Income - Invesco Perpetual Income, High Income or Jupiter Income UK Equity Growth Jupiter Prima Donna Trust (Investment Trust) Emerging Markets (BRIC's) Templeton Emerging Markets (Investment Trust) Africa Fidelity EMEA (Emerging Europe, Middle East, Africa fund Japan Invesco Perpetual Japan Others worth considering M & G recovery M & G Global Basics Consider also non equity investments for diversification such as ETF's Agriculture JP Morgan Natural Resources Merrly lynch Gold and General Also if you want to go for precious metals I prefer Silver which I firmly believe will rocket in the coming months If you wish to include Commercial Property leave it for a while then dip your toe in the pool with TR Property Fund Hope this helps
  9. Brilliant analysis thanks - although microbe will dismiss it as hearsay no doubt
  10. No thats not what I am saying. I am saying that interest rates weren't at 10% in 2003 because there was a huge number of lenders offering funds at 3% or less and this fuelled the excess rises in house prices
  11. If you google house price cycle the very first article that pops up is one which makes reference to the 18 year cycle. Another poster drew attention to it . Its by Fred Harrison in an article in Money Week in 2005. He correctly predicted the cycle had another 3 years to run. I acknoweldge another poster has said that this guy also said something slightly different elsewhere. However if you follow those kinds of threads there are a number of articles making simlar conclusions. I admit I can't find a definitive research paper going back to 1870 to prove it. My point is simply that the articles I have read all seem to support this view to a greater or lesser degree. If you have a different view thats fine but at least I have provided some evidence. If you do disagree then provide evidence to the contrary and not just your view. Regarding the issue about why house prices have risen higher this time and all the stuff about supply and demand of property/ baby boomers etc, I think this is a red herring. How on earth can there be a supply problem when some people have 25 properties and more. The real issue is supply at an equilibrium price that people can afford. EG there are 1000 empty flats in Leeds yet there are another 7000 yet to be built. Similar stories emerge in our other major cities. Its all about supply and demand of credit not housing. We have found there is no end of demand for credit thanks mainly to btl and (thanks to securitisation) which was a once in a lifetime phenomenon an endless supply of credit. This has now ended and will unwind with equal ferocity on the way down. That is the reason in my opinion why the prices went higher this time because of the cheap availability of credit due to securitisation and not to baby boomers although they probably played a more minor part All this is missing the point however which is DONT BUY NOW WAIT UNTIL 2012/3
  12. We are now seeing the unwinding of the property cycle in all its simplicity. It is not rocket science. Since 1870 the cycle has followed an 18 year pattern (give or take a year or two) Basically property prices rise for 12 years in a row....and then fall and remain static for the next 6 years. This present cycle which began in 1996 has now completed its 12 years growth and is now in decline. For those of you who are tempted to buy now...don't Rent and save for the next 5 or 6 years and you will then be in a position to buy a property that you can only dream about now. This is 100% correct and guaranteed as can be back tested on property price data going back to 1870. Please don;t ask for the link as there are lots of studies knocking around confirming this and I am sure other members of on the board can attest to this. It also suggest an end date for this forum, although following the cycle a new forum will need to be started around 2020
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