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House Price Crash Forum


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About Assurbanipal

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  1. Thx for replies. I've added numbers for financial corparations, indeed, than, UK total credit market debt reaches a bit more than 5k billion pounds, what stands for c.350% of GDP. IMHO, there is no point of comparing debt to assets. Debt is repaid from income. If asset isn't giving regular cash inflows, isn't appropriate to talk "debt is irrelevant, I have a ot of nice assets". All speculative schemas included reasoning, that debt to assets ratio isn't so bad. I.e South Sea Company shares surely, at top, were worth more than credit taken for buying it. So, here lies next point - while debt is always real, assets prices can chance and can change pretty much. Also since some level of indebtness will be crossed, whole system becames unstable. One big player goes insolvent, other's go with him as in financial world there is high level of interconnectness (via contracts, bonds, derivatives, mutual loans and so on).
  2. I've read that UK total credit market debt (public+households+corporate debt) crossed 350% GDP mark. However, I failed to find confirmation on BoE website and other official websites posting statistic data. While such data is available here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/accessible/l1.htm I cannot find it for UK. Anyone know the source?
  3. They can pump much more and still it will not change situation. Loses are too big, derivatives are worth more than global annual output, so called "services economies" like US or UK one are indebted more than 300% of GDP, pumping money just delay pain, nothing more.
  4. Funny. In Poland prices since begin of the year decline and our property experts tell the same story: "there will be no crash, just slight correction". Anyway, I remeber the same story was in the USA.
  5. China also cut the dollar peg, allows yuan appreciation. It has an aim - not to make happy US or anybody else, but to bring down inflation, ensure price stability, increase purchasing power of Chinese. They try to shift toward more consumer style economy.
  6. Foreigners rush to quit...therefore I don't agree with this claim: "I doubt the dollar can fall much further. What is it to fall against?" Dollar can fall against Middle East, China, Russia currencies, against gold, commodities. Besides, an excellent analysis, Great Depression II is just inevitable.
  7. Goverment's choice: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought on by credit expansion. The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” Ludwig von Mises
  8. It is not sure. However, there are some reasons to be a bit optimistic on Swiss franc: 1. Switzerland still holds significant amount of gold, Swiss franc has highest ratio of gold support among world currencies 2. There is more gold in Switzeralnd than officials admit - many dictators kept their gold deposits in Swiss banks in secret, when they died, practically that gold belongs to banks 3. Swiss Franc is traditionally seen as safe haven, like a gold. In panic, a lot of people should flee to Swiss Franc. However, while I myself bet of Swiss Franc, nothing is sure in present times, except house price crash and dollar and pound one.
  9. Next pointless waisting of money. They can change something for a while, but nothing more. System is broken, each month brings more and more loses due to falling house prices, wrongly choosen investments, too much leveraged take overs, excessive use of derivatives - nobody can stop that.
  10. During bear markets sometimes sharp rally can happen - but it si eroded quickly.
  11. Bad news. I think soon we will see one of those big investments banks insolvent. It will be huge wave of panic!
  12. On other forum I've just been called fearmonger because I've posted that article and written bearish comment. LOL. They don't know how bad is situation... Derivative Trades on Exchanges Fell Most in 14 Years (Update1) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...amp;refer=funds Asset-Backed, Commercial-Mortgage Spreads Met `Ebola' (Update2) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aPboISAayuaA while there is more and more gloomy news...
  13. @papag, it always looks like soft landing, always various regions performs different...at beginning of the crash, After 12-18 months real pain appears, like in USA now, where most regions and every kind of property suffers badly.
  14. One of the reasons of Great Depression and Asian Crisis was protectionism. It cut sharply trade volume, earning of companies, therefore forcing them to reduce employment.
  15. It is hard to predict where stocks will move in particular day. However, it is still reasonable to say where probably stocks will go in bext couple of months.
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