Another Month, Another Rise In House Prices

[IMupNorth]

Two more surveys, two more indications of a buoyant market, another month goes by, no sign of a trigger on the horizon, how much longer can blind faith and ignorance keep you going ?

You had all better hunker down for a very, very long wait.

What I just can't understand is, how you can't get your head around why the market is doing o.k. Its not like its rocket science as to why prices are sustainable or anything. This is not a bubble, as its completely underpinned by the fundamentals of affordbility.

I just don't understand why you clutch at every piece of bearish news and try and spin it into 'the crash is here', when you are just clearly deceiving yourselves. That can't be good for your mental health ?!

[FollowTheBear]

Two more surveys, two more indications of a buoyant market, another month goes by, no sign of a trigger on the horizon, how much longer can blind faith and ignorance keep you going ?

You had all better hunker down for a very, very long wait.

What I just can't understand is, how you can't get your head around why the market is doing o.k. Its not like its rocket science as to why prices are sustainable or anything. This is not a bubble, as its completely underpinned by the fundamentals of affordbility.

I just don't understand why you clutch at every piece of bearish news and try and spin it into 'the crash is here', when you are just clearly deceiving yourselves. That can't be good for your mental health ?!

Because in my experience of watching prices, they are not going up. The market is in a bubble, and affordability is a joke. How much longer can blind faith and ignorance keep you going?

[Spring In The Air]

Stand off eh? Who has the most blind faith and ignorance?

Given the endless use of might, could, may, possibly on here - you lot try to spin everything into a crash. I've only posted here for a little while and it's already got boring so back to the real world for me I suppose. How many regular posters on here? 30?

I have to tell you lads and lasses, you are not even a minority. You are way less than a minority. 99.9% of people that don't own property want to (council tenants apart, they just buy theirs dirt cheap anyway). And 99.9% of property owners want and expect it to keep going up and don't give a fig about people priced out of the market. Thus it has always been and always will be.

Your grip on reality is slipping away. Now I know a good mortgage broker if that will help

[kingofnowhere]

Two more surveys, two more indications of a buoyant market, another month goes by, no sign of a trigger on the horizon, how much longer can blind faith and ignorance keep you going ?

You had all better hunker down for a very, very long wait.

What I just can't understand is, how you can't get your head around why the market is doing o.k. Its not like its rocket science as to why prices are sustainable or anything. This is not a bubble, as its completely underpinned by the fundamentals of affordbility.

I just don't understand why you clutch at every piece of bearish news and try and spin it into 'the crash is here', when you are just clearly deceiving yourselves. That can't be good for your mental health ?!

Hi Imupnorth

Classic "Groupthink" IMHO.

[Realistbear]

Two more surveys, two more indications of a buoyant market, another month goes by, no sign of a trigger on the horizon, how much longer can blind faith and ignorance keep you going ?

You had all better hunker down for a very, very long wait.

What I just can't understand is, how you can't get your head around why the market is doing o.k. Its not like its rocket science as to why prices are sustainable or anything. This is not a bubble, as its completely underpinned by the fundamentals of affordbility.

I just don't understand why you clutch at every piece of bearish news and try and spin it into 'the crash is here', when you are just clearly deceiving yourselves. That can't be good for your mental health ?!

Are you reading the same report? RICS say market is slowing and unemployment is cited as a reason. Sellers are increasing and +16 is much lower than the forecast +20. THis is good news for Bears and not so good news for Bulls. With worldwide IR headed up the news can only improve from here--for bears that is.

http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

REUTERS

Rise in house prices slows - RICS

18/04/2006 08:15

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices rose again in the three months to March but at a slightly slower pace as the number of properties coming onto the market picked up, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said on Tuesday.

The RICS said its house prices balance eased to +13 in the three months to March from a downwardly revised +16 in February. That was the fifth straight month of price rises.

It said low interest rates continued to underpin buyer interest, with the number of enquiries up for a 10th month although the pace of increase has slowed since October.

Meanwhile, the number of new sellers rose at the fastest pace since June 2005, RICS said, citing rising unemployment as one factor behind the increase in homes being put up for sale

[CommonSense]

I just don't understand why you clutch at every piece of bearish news and try and spin it into 'the crash is here', when you are just clearly deceiving yourselves. That can't be good for your mental health ?!

I live in south somerset, asking prices are down 6% in the past 12 months, by your shallow logic of it being booming in your area must indicate that it's crashing in my area. Pucker up and kiss my spotty a*se.

[brainclamp]

I guess a forum that censors threads by moving them if they have content which is deemed not p.c. is not the place to go if you are interested in real discussion and debate of real issues and reality.

What was laughable was my poll on censorship getting censored! That says it all really.

Edited April 18, 2006 by brainclamp

[simon99]

I'm afraid it's more bad news. These small percentage rises are huge in money terms. It seems house prices defy reality. I give up. Looks like the sad goaders like ImUpNorth win unfortunately.

Edited April 18, 2006 by simon99

[Fancypants]

this is all very interesting, but it does beg a couple of questions:

1) if you're so confident about the future of the housing market, why waste valuable time on here baiting us poor deluded souls when you could be out there in the real world maximising your stake? Don't tell me it's philanthropy, because you lot are all so downright unpleasant that simply isn't plausible.

2) and if the forum is so awful and unfair and aggressively censored, why hang around? It's clearly not a healthy place for debate so why waste your time on us?

My advice is simple. Sling yer 'ooks. Your input is clearly not welcome, and you are clearly not happy with the content of the site, so why not do us all a favour? Unless there's something you're not telling us???

[Firangi]

Two more surveys, two more indications of a buoyant market, another month goes by, no sign of a trigger on the horizon, how much longer can blind faith and ignorance keep you going ?

You had all better hunker down for a very, very long wait.

What I just can't understand is, how you can't get your head around why the market is doing o.k. Its not like its rocket science as to why prices are sustainable or anything. This is not a bubble, as its completely underpinned by the fundamentals of affordbility.

I just don't understand why you clutch at every piece of bearish news and try and spin it into 'the crash is here', when you are just clearly deceiving yourselves. That can't be good for your mental health ?!

House prices are going up and down a few %age here and there. Neither a booming nor a crashing market around my area (Birmingham). Renting is much cheaper and more convenient than buying. The market was pretty much dead until december last year. The august's rate cut has made some effect in Feb and March but its back to now where it was last year. Though I can afford to buy I see no reason to buy now. There's no loss in waiting and watching while your money is doing well in other areas.

[othello]

If you chose to believe VI spin, the market looks great. If you look at the truth, things are rather different.

Rightmove today report that as one of the 'best performing' places in the country, Bath prices have gone up 9.5 % over the past year.

Here is the graph of actual sold prices in Bath from the Land Registry.

Rightmove report asking prices. Thats all. Asking prices. In other words pie in the sky. Their data bears no resemblence with reality. They have set themselves up as some authorative body on house prices when they are just another estate agent.

Bath_prices.bmp

Bath_prices.bmp

Edited April 18, 2006 by othello

[Rain'ard]

In an uncertain world I am surprised that so many have so much confidence in the continuity of HPI.

I’m so unrealistic that I imagine a disaster just around the corner as one hasn’t happened yet. Who knows the day may come when they can’t give houses away. Who wanted a house in Napoleons time when Window Tax was conceived . Who knows what scheme will be introduced to pay for the pension shortfall, Taxing property owners as they are the only ones who have the money. This is without a global catastrophe

When the boastful on this thread reach the age of ninety nine and prove to me they were successful in the property market then I might concede.

[Seamaster]

I imagine a disaster just around the corner...

Trouble is, we've been hearing this for YEARS.

Boy who cried wolf and all that.

In the meantime, prices HAVE marched North, and some of us have made enough of a profit to cushion any future "correction". In my case, there'd need to be a truly spectactular 40-50% crash if the wolf ever does make an appearance — and timed precisely to coincide with an unforeseen need to sell — to put me into any difficulties.

Edited April 18, 2006 by Seamaster

[kingofnowhere]

If you chose to believe VI spin, the market looks great. If you look at the truth, things are rather different.

Rightmove today report that as one of the 'best performing' places in the country, Bath prices have gone up 9.5 % over the past year.

Here is the graph of actual sold prices in Bath from the Land Registry.

Rightmove report asking prices. Thats all. Asking prices. In other words pie in the sky. Their data bears no resemblence with reality. They have set themselves up as some authorative body on house prices when they are just another estate agent.

Not a very compelling case then is it? Land Reg are at the end of 2005, and so relate to Rightmove about August, when they were reporting Bath falling 0.6% annual HPI .

Timeline, and below Augusts 05 Rightmove report

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/template/public...ive.vm/svr/1014

[Spring In The Air]

I’m so unrealistic that I imagine a disaster just around the corner as one hasn’t happened yet.

That will be this site's epitaph.

[Rain'ard]

Trouble is, we've been hearing this for YEARS.

Boy who cried wolf and all that.

In the meantime, prices HAVE marched North, and some of us have made enough of a profit to cushion any correction in prices. In my case, there'd need to be a truly spectactular 40-50% crash if the wolf ever does make an appearance — and timed precisely to coincide with an unforeseen need to sell — to put me into any difficulties.

Granted, but my point was "yes we've been hearing for years" But it's still lurking it has been in the past, so it will in the future

That will be this site's epitaph.

But, I have nothing to loose. I can wait till I'm ninety nine

[Realistbear]

That will be this site's epitaph.

Which statement about the property market is true:

1. House prices only ever go up.

2. House prices can go up as well as down as evidenced by the history of rises and falls in prices.

[kingofnowhere]

Which statement about the property market is true:

1. House prices only ever go up.

2. House prices can go up as well as down as evidenced by the history of rises and falls in prices.

Ohhh I know, number 2, but you would have to be a right idiot to think house prices will rise forever.

How about this for you

1) House prices have only historically fallen when interest rates have risen by at least 3% in the preceeding 12months

2) large rises in interest rates aren't needed for a crash in house prices

[Firangi]

>>House prices have only historically fallen when interest rates have risen by at least 3% in the preceeding 12months

But we have been told it's different this time

[jp1]

Two more surveys, two more indications of a buoyant market

I think you'll find that prices fell last month from £185k to £183k [latest ODPM figures Feb 2006]

Thats falling prices - and is the real money paid by buyers, not asking prices, or anuallised HPI, or quarter-on-quarter comparisons, or the percentage of surveyor reporting rises vs falls, or whatever else makes the VI figures look good

Not that bouyant,

Spring Bounce anyone?

How many regular posters on here? 30?

So how come so many EA's and VIs spend so much time on here, if the website is so inconsequential?

I've only posted here for a little while and it's already got boring so back to the real world for me I suppose.

Rushed of your little feet in the EA office, with all those houses 'flying off the shelves'??

[kingofnowhere]

I think you'll find that prices fell last month from £185k to £183k [latest ODPM figures Feb 2006]

Thats falling prices - and is the real money paid by buyers, not asking prices, or anuallised HPI, or quarter-on-quarter comparisons, or the percentage of surveyor reporting rises vs falls, or whatever else makes the VI figures look good

Not that bouyant,

Spring Bounce anyone?

Except the ODPM figures were for Feb so Not last month, and they are based on Sales price. This is equal to approvals in Dec/Jan when the Halifax reported falls of 0.3% and 1.6%.

The ODPM figures are NSA, just because they are down the timeline, and during the weakest months for HPI doesn't mean the current market isn't bouyant.

[Realistbear]

Ohhh I know, number 2, but you would have to be a right idiot to think house prices will rise forever.

How about this for you

1) House prices have only historically fallen when interest rates have risen by at least 3% in the preceeding 12months

2) large rises in interest rates aren't needed for a crash in house prices

2)

With the nature of our bubble market being IR sensitive I do not believe much in the way or rate hikes will be required to trigger a panic selling attempt.

However, there are more potential mines in the water than just IR. Unemployment is picking up and is cited by RICS as the reason for the increasing numbers of sellers needing to geet out of the market. A potential crash or even "soft landing" makes it less attractive for BTLs to buy as rents are too low as measured by the risks to the downside and inability to obtain economic returns.

There are also a number of "wild cards" in the world that could trigger a strong market reaction including a severe oil price spike, war with Iran together with a Nuclear confrontation, bird flu crossing over as it did in 1918, Japanese IR rising faster than expected.

IR are the most obvious threat to the market as it has been accomodative rates that are behind all of the world bubbles. The opposite effect seems logical as rates begin to rise.

I would take all of the signals that are coming out of the world markets together and analyse them as a whole. I think they boil down to a simple conclusion: now is the time to sell IR sensitive assetts and not buy them.

[Seamaster]

There are also a number of "wild cards" in the world that could trigger a strong market reaction including a severe oil price spike, war with Iran together with a Nuclear confrontation, bird flu crossing over as it did in 1918...

. . . and global warming, the switch to digital, speed cameras, drugs in sport, squeezy Marmite, etc etc etc . . .

[jp1]

Except the ODPM figures were for Feb so Not last month, and they are based on Sales price. This is equal to approvals in Dec/Jan when the Halifax reported falls of 0.3% and 1.6%.

Hmm, January, now wasn't that the period that Rightomove were reporting huge rises in asking prices?

Rhubarb anyone?

[starship fighter]

on the bbc news this morning it was clearly stated that the rise in house prices was specifically down to the flush of city bonuses and the recipients of these bonuses rushing out to invest their money in properties around london. an article in the independent yesterday about gazumping made mention of the same phenomena - apparently gazumping has returned, but it is the city boys who are doing it to each other with their bonuses.

can someone pleas give me a shout when this sort of activity has any bearing at all on the price of two bedroom terraced houses in sheffield please! this sort of activity, whilst massaging the mean average, is of absolutely no relevance to the average ftb. still, it was nice to hear a bullish article tempered with a bearish tone on bbc news!