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House Price Crash Forum

Spring In The Air

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About Spring In The Air

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    VI Troll
  1. We're only looking for evidence that supports the CRASH scenario here. Bullish posts will be seen for what they are, BULLISH!!!!
  2. You don't think the Chancellor is going to let the housing market die do you?
  3. How does me posting a bit of 'truth from the front line' constitute an attempt to sell houses? I post here to counter the party line that is repeated here over and over again like a handbook for the Moonies. I also post here to kill a bit of time while the legals are done on the sale of my agency. Time to put my feet up after a lifetime of battling the forces of truth and decency!
  4. Well obviously I can't explain what is happening to your sister's house, but, I don't dispute what you are saying. i.e. Just because I don't, in general terms, agree with your views, I will not make the rash assumption you are not telling the truth. Perhaps you could do the same for me? I visited a friend the other day in a town about an hour's drive from me, quite near Heathrow airport. We had lunch in town and, of course, I glanced in a few estate agent's windows. In one of them, where the details are in the window, every other space had a brightly coloured piece of paper with 'After our best 1st quarter ever, we desperately need more houses to sell'. Glancing at other agents there is a lack of property on the market. What does this tell me? It tells me that the backlog of property hanging over from last year has sold and that most of the stuff that went on the market in the first quarter has sold. It tells me that there is not so much coming on the market now. In my experience, this does not mean that property is about to go through the roof because of a lack of supply. It does not work like that. It also tells me that conditions in that town are very similar to my own. We too are now short of property after a very good first quarter - during which prices definitely jumped. So, yes, it is too sweeping a statement to generalise about an area the size of London and the South East. However, I KNOW beyond any shadow of a doubt that your statement 'In our experience of tracking several key areas in the south east, the falls didn't really start happening until the second part of last year' is simply not correct. Our stickiest time was the last quarter of 2004 and the first of 2005. The IR increases in 2004 slowly bit and, as I say, caused problems at the end of 2004 and, really, for the first half of 2005. Things then settled down and the IR fall last Autumn seems to have been the catalyst that kicked it all off again this January. In January, it really was like someone had taken the top off a pressure cooker. You think I am here to sell houses???!!!! This place gets more surreal all the time.
  5. You all have a wonderfully twisted view of supply and demand in the property market. It isn't coffee you know! Let me give you an insight. In each property transaction - chain or not - one person enters the market and one person leaves it. The price of property depends on the balance between the number of buyers in the market and the number of sellers, not the number of properties. I have seen markets where there is very little on the market and prices have to fall to entice buyers into the market. I have seen markets with very little property on the market where everything sells quickly, at a premium. I have seen markets with massive amounts of property on the market all of which sells like hot cakes with prices rising month on month. I have seen markets with massive amounts of property on the market with very little selling and prices hardening. Now I know this does not fit in with your usual supply/demand economics but property is a unique market that does not fit this model - nor does it follow the economic cycles you all love so much. Your lack of understanding of the property market is the reason why you cannot predict where it is heading. You seem to have been repeating your mantras for a couple of years or more now and, during this period, prices everywhere outside London and the South East have continued to climb. Now, London and the South East are climbing again and other areas are experiencing a slow down. Whichever way you look at it, your predictions of a House Price Crash have been utterly wrong.
  6. I am not saying where I am based for obvious reasons. All I will say is that it is in the Home Counties not far from the M25. I am not saying, unlike you lot, that I know what is happening in every region of the country. I probably have a better idea what is happening on my patch than you do. I attend regular meetings of a group of estate agents that covers an area aabout 30 miles x 40 miles and, at out meetings, we always swap market updates. I am saying that the market conditions you describe - houses not selling for a long time, multiple agency, offers accepted below asking, not much moving etc accurately describes the state of the market here during much of 2004 and 2005. I am saying that the market has enjoyed a massive renaissance since the New Year and we have had one of our best first quarters ever. The Land Registry figures will confirm in due course that the London and South East market has enjoyed a serious revival. In any area you will find one anectode to support your view. I have a lot of anecdotes to go on.
  7. Isn't there a bit of a contradiction there. In one sentence you say 'rates never really dropped that much,' in the next you say 'a sign of way too much cheap money'.
  8. Be fooled. Be very fooled. I am in the South East and prices are booming. I know it's not what you want to hear but we are getting offers over asking again on properties with more than one interested buyer.
  9. My question 'how come you lot know so much about estate agency?' was rhetorical. You don't 'live, breathe and eat property' - you just think about it a lot. It's not the same thing. How much respect do people on here show to estate agents? They childishly blame them for the world's ills and constantly refer to them as scum and so on. Well, I'm sorry but it's what I have done all my life. It has been my career and a large part of my life. I feel I provide an excellent value for money service to my clients and am not responsible for the greed of the human race. Bit of respect? Two way traffic I would think.
  10. Well I guess you are too junior and inexperienced to know yet! Apart from all the usual stuff of preparing details, floor plans, virtual tours, multiple portal listings etc we also accompany all viewings as a matter of policy. Then, of course, we have to qualify offers by checking the chain position of prospective purchasers. We really swing into gear when the sale is agreed. We have our own progress chasing software to monitor the crucial milestones in the conveyancing process and each sale is allocated to a dedicated progress chaser. They stay in constant (controlled by the software) contact with the buyer, buyer's conveyancer, our client and their conveyancer. We also talk to the agents above and below us in the chain to keep them on the ball to make sure, as often happens, that a conveyancer has not let something slip to the bottom of the pile. We help out in this process any way we can and we are regularly complimented by our clients when deals complete. I have also enjoyed lots of repeat business over the years. A good estate agency, such as mine, is very much involved in the complex aspects of buying and selling a house. By comparison, the conveyancing process is effectively an automatic series of tasks that can be performed by anyone with a little bit of training. You can do it yourself if you want or use a licensed conveyancer instead of a solicitor. When you have a bit more experience, you may be able to tell the difference between a good agency and a not-so-good one.
  11. Good post? Sheer, unadulterated drivel I am afraid. And your shopping list - can't you see how that really sums up how daft the idea is? Asda's will learn they will have to provide a full agency service, or just pick up a very small amount of business - like the existing on-line efforts. Do you think Asda's creating an internet site is going to change human nature? The house buying/selling process is a lot more complex - in terms of managing the humans involved in it - than you lot ever seem to give credit for. How come you all know so much about estate agency?
  12. The average size of a pension pot is less than 30k - about enough for a second hand car and a visit to the cinema once a month.
  13. You seem to have absorbed everything very well. Why not post this every morning and save the old hands the bother?
  14. The innocence on here is touching. All you twenty somethings that have never bought or sold a property and you know SO MUCH about it!
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