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kingofnowhere

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About kingofnowhere

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  1. Aug No change Sept No Change (inflation starts to fall) Nov No Change Inflation down to 2.1% by year end
  2. I suspect they are skewed, for London/SE (We will find out when the L/R is out) Is that better news?
  3. I agreed a purchase last August, Looking ,although would have stopped from April if things went pear shaped My rational at the time, was that approvals had been growing since the Nov, and the next interest rate moved looked to me to be a cut. London economy seemed to be picking up, and I was purchasing very close to London. Why I purchased the property I did? I EA they knew we were looking for about one or two streets (Yep I know, but that's me). One came up, and as I knew the EA well (and had no chain) We were allowed to see it. The seller needed a fast sale, because they had seen a house (The previous sale had fallen through), which they wanted to puchase. The vendors for this property needed a fast sale. So they cut the price, However they only wanted people to offer with no chain. (FWIW this was a property in excess of £1M, so you don't get many purchases with no chains at that level) My Vendor then put there's on the market, and put it on for a very competive price, but only people with no chains were allowed to view. Anyway, three people viewed and they had two asking price offers and one for £5K under. We were on with the asking price offer, and I think the reason we got it, is because we used the EA mortgage broker, and we already had approval for a mortgage in excess of the size we needed. So anyway this is my final home, I'm not moving again. Dispite what my beloved wife wants. I'm happy where I am and have more than enough room, and protential to extend if we ever need more rooms. Thats my position, housing neutral
  4. Hi Gross is not any use in predicting the movements in house prices, as gross includes remortgages. The figure to look at is the number of loans, for house purchase, which is strong even compared to 2003 and 1H2004 when house prices were booming 2003 jan 48,829feb 58,030mar 72,808apr 78,668may 78,500june 84,111july 89,352Aug 81,635sept 85,626oct 90,718Nov 80,414Dec 64,5632004 jan 54,443feb 72,339mar 97,852apr 87,800may 89,289june 88,859july 69,951Aug 64,032sept 59,905oct 59,011Nov 47,245Dec 40,0502005 Jan 34,216Feb 47,084Mar 64,372April 67,290May 67,702June 70,750july 65,611Aug 69,499Sept 70,105Oct 72,328Nov 71,301Dec 51,2232006 jan 45,039Feb 57,585Mar 85,698Apr 64,683May 81,298june 86,106
  5. http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...BRITAIN-BBA.xml <i> Mortgage approvals jumped in June Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:41 AM BST LONDON (Reuters) - The number of mortgage approvals for home purchases rose 22 percent in June from a year ago, suggesting house prices will keep rising, British Bankers' Association data showed on Thursday. Approvals -- the number of loans agreed but not yet completed -- totalled 86,106 in June compared with 70,750 in June 2005 and up from 81,298 approvals in May. Approvals in May were up 20 percent on the year.</i>
  6. Hi realist Rightmove had the East Midlands falling. Rightmove said the strongest price rises seen during the four weeks to July 8 were in the South East at 4.7%, followed by the South West at 3.8% and Greater London at 2.9%, with the London borough of Haringey seeing a jump of 5.8%. But at the other end of the scale, prices in Yorkshire and Humberside fell by 1.6%, while those in the East Midlands dropped by 0.7%, and in the North West and East Anglia the average cost of a home edged ahead by just 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
  7. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/91c5a80a-0d0c-11db...00779e2340.html London surge boosts house price growth by Chris Giles, Economics Editor Published: July 7 2006 09:26 | Last updated: July 7 2006 09:26 Another surge in London’s house prices helped to nudge house price inflation a little higher to 5.6 per cent in June, according to the FT house price index. Bucking the trend of a slowing housing market in other regions of England and Wales, the capital’s house prices rose by 10.3 per cent over the 12 months to May. London surge boosts house price growth by Chris Giles, Economics Editor Published: July 7 2006 09:26 | Last updated: July 7 2006 09:26 Another surge in London’s house prices helped to nudge house price inflation a little higher to 5.6 per cent in June, according to the FT house price index. Bucking the trend of a slowing housing market in other regions of England and Wales, the capital’s house prices rose by 10.3 per cent over the 12 months to May. In the past two months, there have been signs that there was a widespread pick-up in lending after a lull around Easter but the FT index shows this to be primarily a London phenomenon.
  8. Hi If you are willing to do the looking, you can find people who have sold for less. This one is the biggest nominal fall I know, and yes it was a new build 1 06/01/2005 £270,000 Flat L No Map Central Walk, Flat 34, Station Approach, Epsom, Surrey, KT19 8BY 2 26/11/2003 £320,000 Flat L Yes Map Central Walk, 34 Flat, Station Approach, Epsom, Surrey, KT19 8BY
  9. Hi Dec 2002 was because they adjusted the values of Garages in the Regression. Cheers
  10. Previous negative SA numbers, the 0 are there because of rounding, but they are negative. Sep 1983 -0.3%May 1985 0.0%Jul 1985 -0.5%Jun 1989 -0.2%Jul 1989 -0.4%Aug 1989 -0.3%Sep 1989 -0.6%Oct 1989 -0.5%Nov 1989 -0.2%Dec 1989 -0.2%Feb 1990 -0.1%Mar 1990 -0.3%May 1990 -0.6%Jun 1990 0.0%Jul 1990 -0.2%Aug 1990 -0.2%Oct 1990 -0.3%Feb 1991 -0.5%Mar 1991 0.0%Apr 1991 -0.5%Jun 1991 -0.2%Jul 1991 -0.7%Aug 1991 -0.1%Sep 1991 -0.6%Nov 1991 -0.7%Dec 1991 -0.8%Jan 1992 -0.3%Feb 1992 -0.9%Mar 1992 -0.8%Apr 1992 -1.2%May 1992 -0.1%Jul 1992 -0.3%Aug 1992 -0.3%Sep 1992 -3.0%Oct 1992 -0.5%Dec 1992 -0.4%Jan 1993 -0.3%Feb 1993 -0.6%May 1993 -1.7%Jun 1993 -1.3%Nov 1993 0.0%Dec 1993 -0.5%Jan 1994 -0.7%Apr 1994 -0.4%May 1994 -1.2%Aug 1994 -0.6%Oct 1994 -0.1%Nov 1994 -0.1%Jan 1995 -0.2%Feb 1995 -0.3%Mar 1995 -0.2%Apr 1995 -0.4%May 1995 -0.8%Jul 1995 -0.8%Jun 1996 -0.2%Sep 1996 -0.3%Jan 1997 -0.8%Aug 1998 -0.1%Nov 1998 -0.5%Dec 1998 -0.1%Feb 1999 -0.1%Nov 1999 -0.8%Feb 2000 -0.8%Mar 2000 -0.2%May 2000 0.0%Jun 2000 -0.6%Oct 2000 -1.2%Dec 2000 -0.6%Sep 2001 -0.2%Oct 2001 -0.4%Aug 2002 -0.4%Aug 2004 -0.5%Oct 2004 -1.2%Nov 2004 -0.2%Feb 2005 -0.5%Apr 2005 -0.1%May 2005 -0.6%Oct 2005 0.0%Jan 2006 -0.2%May 2006 -0.1%Jun 2006 -1.2%
  11. No its not, Halifax always use a three month rolling average.
  12. Your right it is 6 months out, I thought it was June?!? Its a number that I use, for 6 months out as a rule of thumb (Min adj), I was trying to be generous to you, as I didn't want to agrue the toss over small amounts. The reason short sterling needs adjusting is because they settle against LIBOR, which is the un-collateralised commerical bank liability curve, and not the risk-free curve. For this you have to use Gilt-Repo rates which trade less than LIBOR For example three months out tend to trade approx 14-18bps less than LIBOR. As you go further out the "premium" will get larger and at short it will reduce. I suggest you read this, page 9 http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...etin/qb0404.pdf 0.15% for 6 months out is very generous to you as 0.2 to 0.25 is more realistic, at present BTW how can you think its a bit toppy, have a look at what SS for July does after the BOE meeting. It will still ahve a premium of about .15 to 0.2.
  13. No it doesn't you have to make a min of 0.15% downwards in the expected interest rates 6 months out, and that is the min possible Therefore 95.04+0.15 is 95.19 gives an implied rate of 4.81% or 0.06/.25 or 24% chance of 5% And that is being overly generous to you as 0.15% is the min 6 months out, and we are now 7 months out and a more realistic downward would be 0.2%-0.25% (For settlement this month the market has a premium of 0.2) Basically on any reasonable adjustment you are only going to get one increase before year end
  14. Twaddle one is priced in (How many times do I have to explain this) , as you have to adjust the SS rate. Unless you think current base rate is Short Sterling (95.300) ie 4.7%!
  15. Because the BOE are in no hurry Unemployment is rising, inflation is under control, wage inflation is under control, the pound is up 1.25% first half year. And the BOE last inflation report didn't see expect any rise soon, in fact not until 2Q07. The last set of minutes didn't show any inclination of rising rates soon. You might have one before year end, but one 0.25% rise is hardly going to create a crash, is it?
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