Dreamcasting Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 https://www.ft.com/content/fad96dd0-7064-4a74-bffb-e74b9b28ac09 Stocks soaring right now as rate cut talk back on the agenda. The "everything bubble" continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 "Oh yes they will!" "Oh no they won't!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 16 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: https://www.ft.com/content/fad96dd0-7064-4a74-bffb-e74b9b28ac09 Stocks soaring right now as rate cut talk back on the agenda. The "everything bubble" continues. China might not take anymore US treasuries so they cannot cut rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 (edited) Unemployment is still very low and inflation is ramping up so there's no reason to cut rates. That doesn't mean they won't. The focus at this point needs to be on popping the bubbles before everything really starts to get out of hand. It's not going to end well at all. Edited May 3 by Dreamcasting Spelling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 1 hour ago, Orb said: "Oh yes they will!" "Oh no they won't!" Reminds me of Pirates of the Carribean 2 where they all rush from one side of the boat to the other repeatedly (and then eventually sink it). Seriously though I think the market is current overreacting to every scrap of data - whichever way. The truth is that interest rates are now in a normal range and will likely stay there for a while. Everyone hoping for rates of <2% or >10% will be very disappointed. 4-6% range for the next few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 8 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Everyone hoping for rates of <2% or >10% will be very disappointed. Oh no we won't!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 IR's need to rise in the US and the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerkin Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 The US stock market right now is on steroids really. Its all bawednon an overdose of copium and hopium. Investors are ready and waiting to pounce of anything that could mean welcoming news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 Waiting for this to all go wrong for the hopeful low rate obsessed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 4 hours ago, gerkin said: The US stock market right now is on steroids really. Its all bawednon an overdose of copium and hopium. Investors are ready and waiting to pounce of anything that could mean welcoming news. By hook or by crook the Primary Dealers must find a market for the enormous sums of Treasury debt that Coma Joe is bombarding them with each and every month. They have a legal obligation to do so, even at their own expense. So yes, they'll lend their customers the margin they need to help keep them buying. And yes, they'll continuously adjust their risk accounting to add ever more leverage to their lending books. It's a full service casino, baby! Three sevens (Bitcoin) for a jackpot. Chairman Pao, meanwhile, will keep greasing the action with promises of rate cuts to come and has further obliged by winding down the QT roll off to nothing. Buy, buy, buy is the message. The Fed has your back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 6 minutes ago, cdd said: Waiting for this to all go wrong for the hopeful low rate obsessed. It will go wrong indeed - it'll end in disaster and we'll all end up paying heavily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 9 minutes ago, zugzwang said: By hook or by crook the Primary Dealers must find a market for the enormous sums of Treasury debt that Coma Joe is bombarding them with each and every month. They have a legal obligation to do so, even at their own expense. So yes, they'll lend their customers the margin they need to help keep them buying. And yes, they'll continuously adjust their risk accounting to add ever more leverage to their lending books. It's a full service casino, baby! Three sevens (Bitcoin) for a jackpot. Chairman Pao, meanwhile, will keep greasing the action with promises of rate cuts to come and has further obliged by winding down the QT roll off to nothing. Buy, buy, buy is the message. The Fed has your back. Can he go "Vocker"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 Just now, Maghull Mike said: Can he go "Vocker"? This guy is no Volker. Anything but. He'll let inflation rip towards 10% whilst claiming that it's transitory mark 2. The reaction will be a poxy 0.25% base rate increase. Powell is a particular danger right now. Probably more dangerous due to it being an election year. Too many people have completely misinterpreted what he said in his speech on Wednesday. The real dove is fully on display. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 Some actual bullish news for rate cuts and no comment from @Stewy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewwk Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 On 03/05/2024 at 14:52, Dreamcasting said: https://www.ft.com/content/fad96dd0-7064-4a74-bffb-e74b9b28ac09 Stocks soaring right now as rate cut talk back on the agenda. The "everything bubble" continues. super-rational world we live in right now. signs of the economy weakening -> soaring stock market... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewwk Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 Just now, andrewwk said: super-rational world we live in right now. signs of the economy weakening -> soaring stock market... I mean technically it is rational, but very short-sighted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 21 hours ago, fellow said: Some actual bullish news for rate cuts and no comment from @Stewy? Interest rates being hacked is a given. No need for me to comment every time. ...but since you asked 😇 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14stFlyer Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 1 hour ago, Stewy said: Interest rates being hacked is a given. The assumptions we make are often our greatest limitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 12 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said: The assumptions we make are often our greatest limitation. I have no limitations. I suspect we will be talking about NIRP before the 10% rates some on here seem to desire for their own personal gain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 1 hour ago, Stewy said: I have no limitations. I suspect we will be talking about NIRP before the 10% rates some on here seem to desire for their own personal gain. I don’t think we’ll see either in this decade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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