Sudden shift in housing market in Wales - reality kicks in

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Have noticed a sudden shift 1-2 weeks ago - reality has kicked in at long last. Prices and valuations appear to be falling dramatically, particularly in rural areas. 

The economy is struggling terribly. Hospitality has suffered a massive increase in tax. The 20mph speed limit will be having an impact. Then there's the situation in Port Talbot which will be radiating out. Easter was very poor for tourism... and on it goes. https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/doing-business-just-became-more-28934012

Edited April 4 by Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Sackboii]

8 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

Have noticed a sudden shift 1-2 weeks ago - reality has kicked in at long last. Prices and valuations appear to be falling dramatically, particularly in rural areas. 

Starting to see this in a few areas I monitor too. Was going to start a thread saying similar after another week of observations.

Basically, Spring didn’t have a ‘bounce’.

[Huggy]

42 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

Have noticed a sudden shift 1-2 weeks ago

Hmmmm. I had a look today and can see the price per sq m on a couple of new housing entrants have dropped below £4k (SE, home counties, outside of M25). That's only 50 or 60% overpriced now.

Some, are laughably at 'offers over' on a £5k sqm place, but the past few months have been solidly over 4. Can't remember what they were before that as they were eye-rollingly bad. Feels like the right trajectory anyway.

32 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

Basically, Spring didn’t have a ‘bounce’.

Neither do houses of cards built on shifting sands  Feels like I needed a winkie at the end it was so profound.

Edited April 4 by Huggy

[BobWeaver]

I was thinking the exact same thing, some houses coming on at lower prices than I have come to expect 

 

Greater Manchester area 

[Locke]

24 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Hmmmm. I had a look today and can see the price per sq m on a couple of new housing entrants have dropped below £4k (SE, home counties, outside of M25). That's only 50 or 60% overpriced now.

Some, are laughably at 'offers over' on a £5k sqm place, but the past few months have been solidly over 4. Can't remember what they were before that as they were eye-rollingly bad. Feels like the right trajectory anyway.

Neither do houses of cards built on shifting sands  Feels like I needed a winkie at the end it was so profound.

Well Stewy has been assuring us we will see deflation...maybe this is what he meant  

[fellow]

6 hours ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

Have noticed a sudden shift 1-2 weeks ago - reality has kicked in at long last. Prices and valuations appear to be falling dramatically, particularly in rural areas. 

The economy is struggling terribly. Hospitality has suffered a massive increase in tax. The 20mph speed limit will be having an impact. Then there's the situation in Port Talbot which will be radiating out. Easter was very poor for tourism... and on it goes. https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/doing-business-just-became-more-28934012

And those 2.8k job losses haven't even happened yet! So many job cuts we have seen in the redundancy thread are just at the announcement stage and the real bloodbath will be coming over the next few months. Then the secondary knock on effects and demand destruction will lead to further unemployment, falling tax revenues, increasing benefit costs and mass public sector job cuts.

Edited April 4 by fellow

[Nick Cash]

6 hours ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

Have noticed a sudden shift 1-2 weeks ago - reality has kicked in at long last. Prices and valuations appear to be falling dramatically, particularly in rural areas. 

The economy is struggling terribly. Hospitality has suffered a massive increase in tax. The 20mph speed limit will be having an impact. Then there's the situation in Port Talbot which will be radiating out. Easter was very poor for tourism... and on it goes. https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/doing-business-just-became-more-28934012

Wales is a basket case. Has been for decades. Propped up by grants to entice industry in the 70s / 80s and tourism. 
 

They’re actively persuading tourism to fail and have no plans for agriculture except “plant trees”.

 

They could well be the first net zero nation. Zero prospects. But loads of water.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

15 hours ago, Nick Cash said:

Wales is a basket case. Has been for decades. Propped up by grants to entice industry in the 70s / 80s and tourism. 
 

They’re actively persuading tourism to fail and have no plans for agriculture except “plant trees”.

 

They could well be the first net zero nation. Zero prospects. But loads of water.

It really is because Welsh Labour doesn't understand the private sector - it is utterly hopeless... used to have good inward investment when the WDA was in place... then it was abolished. Ho, hum. Mind you, tourism is only 5% of GDP - it is visibile but insignificant. 

I am seeing similar signs of economic stress over the border - in Glos, Shropshire, etc., too. 

Edited April 5 by Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[CountryMove]

Empty homes council tax increases in Wales have now begun to kick in, I've seen a few come onto the market recently which look long-term empty 

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/areas-wales-charge-extra-council-28570502

[nome]

16 hours ago, Nick Cash said:

Wales is a basket case. Has been for decades. Propped up by grants to entice industry in the 70s / 80s and tourism. 
 

They’re actively persuading tourism to fail and have no plans for agriculture except “plant trees”.

 

They could well be the first net zero nation. Zero prospects. But loads of water.

The so called economic benefits of tourism is a complete myth anyway, a myth propagated by a very small but very vocal and vociferous lobby group... that group being the business owners who's businesses cater directly and specifically for tourists and tourism. These are the only people who get any meaningful income from tourism. 

For all other local residents and local non-tourism business owners there are no meaningful benefits from tourism at all, in fact the large majority are socio-economically worse off as a result of tourism and are just left to deal with the mess, disruption and expense that results from tourism.

 

[MP1]

Lleyn peninsula sales (LL53) not looking too rosy. Loads coming on, nothing selling, and reductions galore.

Abersoch bubble has burst for the time being.

[The Angry Capitalist]

19 hours ago, Nick Cash said:

Wales is a basket case. Has been for decades. Propped up by grants to entice industry in the 70s / 80s and tourism. 
 

They’re actively persuading tourism to fail and have no plans for agriculture except “plant trees”.

 

They could well be the first net zero nation. Zero prospects. But loads of water.

Lol.

No arguments from me but hasn't it been that way for centuries or even thousands of years?

Caerleon was probably the last great city they had prior to the roman invasion.

Cardiff seems to have done well for itself.

[The Angry Capitalist]

2 hours ago, nome said:

The so called economic benefits of tourism is a complete myth anyway, a myth propagated by a very small but very vocal and vociferous lobby group... that group being the business owners who's businesses cater directly and specifically for tourists and tourism. These are the only people who get any meaningful income from tourism. 

For all other local residents and local non-tourism business owners there are no meaningful benefits from tourism at all, in fact the large majority are socio-economically worse off as a result of tourism and are just left to deal with the mess, disruption and expense that results from tourism.

 

We only need to look at Greece to see what happens when you rely on tourism.

You become a slave state to the EU.

At least they have good weather there.

Must be depressing to live in wales.

[The Angry Capitalist]

2 hours ago, nome said:

The so called economic benefits of tourism is a complete myth anyway, a myth propagated by a very small but very vocal and vociferous lobby group... that group being the business owners who's businesses cater directly and specifically for tourists and tourism. These are the only people who get any meaningful income from tourism. 

For all other local residents and local non-tourism business owners there are no meaningful benefits from tourism at all, in fact the large majority are socio-economically worse off as a result of tourism and are just left to deal with the mess, disruption and expense that results from tourism.

 

It's all minimum wage work.

Restaurants, gift shops & taxis etc.

All service sector that doesn't generate any wealth.

I see it here in Cornwall only too well.

Hasn't all Britain's coastal towns been left to ruin from this service sector/tourist economy based around credit and debt?

And yet the British media appear to be puzzled when they see production has stagnated for the last 10 years or more.

[Nick Cash]

3 hours ago, nome said:

The so called economic benefits of tourism is a complete myth anyway, a myth propagated by a very small but very vocal and vociferous lobby group... that group being the business owners who's businesses cater directly and specifically for tourists and tourism. These are the only people who get any meaningful income from tourism. 

For all other local residents and local non-tourism business owners there are no meaningful benefits from tourism at all, in fact the large majority are socio-economically worse off as a result of tourism and are just left to deal with the mess, disruption and expense that results from tourism.

 

Yes, too much tourism is a drain. But what apart from tourism and agriculture is there on the Lleyn. Some fishing - William Selwyn has painted some glorious pictures of fishermen over the last 30 years.

 

https://welshart.net/artists/113-william-selwyn/works/18030-william-selwyn-boat-launching-at-ty-calch-i/

 

Same problem in much of coastal mid / North Wales. There used to be loads of derelict houses in the 70s and 80s. Mainly developed for the tourist trade.

 

[Nick Cash]

3 hours ago, MP1 said:

Lleyn peninsula sales (LL53) not looking too rosy. Loads coming on, nothing selling, and reductions galore.

Abersoch bubble has burst for the time being.

Yes, I look at Morfa Nefyn and Edern. Same story.

[nome]

4 hours ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

It's all minimum wage work.

Restaurants, gift shops & taxis etc.

All service sector that doesn't generate any wealth.

I see it here in Cornwall only too well.

Hasn't all Britain's coastal towns been left to ruin from this service sector/tourist economy based around credit and debt?

And yet the British media appear to be puzzled when they see production has stagnated for the last 10 years or more.

Absolutely. 

The few minimum wage, part time, seasonal jobs in the tourism sector go no way at all towards compensating for the overall socio-economic downside that results from tourism. 

 

 

[TheChangeIsCast]

5 hours ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

We only need to look at Greece to see what happens when you rely on tourism.

You become a slave state to the EU.

At least they have good weather there.

Must be depressing to live in wales.

I guess it depends where you live in Wales, as with anywhere else. I live in NE Wales, and honestly, love it around here. 45 mins from Liverpool, 50 mins from Manchester, 15 mins from Chester, and then Mold and Wrexham both also 15 mins away. At the same time, have the Clywdians on my doorstep, and Eryri only 1 hour away. Stunning coastline, and the best mountains south of the highlands. So for someone who loves the outdoors like me, it's perfect, and it's got the city stuff on the doorstep too when I want that. Living one mile over the border on the Welsh side also means it's way cheaper than Chester itself. If money was no object but I was restricted to the UK, the only other place I would choose to live would be the Scottish highlands. Maybe West Coast but probably Easy Coast, Inverness area. Plus, when you see the amount of Cheshire w*****s with their range rovers who like have second homes over here, it can't be that depressing, you wouldn't buy a second home in a depressing place would you? 😉🤣

On the flip side, I've worked all over the UK, and generally find most places in England depressing. Flat, boring and depressing, for the most part. I like the Peak, bits of Yorkshire and Cornwall, that's it. Not been to Northumberland yet, but heard good things.

Edited April 5 by TheChangeIsCast

[The Angry Capitalist]

1 hour ago, TheChangeIsCast said:

I guess it depends where you live in Wales, as with anywhere else. I live in NE Wales, and honestly, love it around here. 45 mins from Liverpool, 50 mins from Manchester, 15 mins from Chester, and then Mold and Wrexham both also 15 mins away. At the same time, have the Clywdians on my doorstep, and Eryri only 1 hour away. Stunning coastline, and the best mountains south of the highlands. So for someone who loves the outdoors like me, it's perfect, and it's got the city stuff on the doorstep too when I want that. Living one mile over the border on the Welsh side also means it's way cheaper than Chester itself. If money was no object but I was restricted to the UK, the only other place I would choose to live would be the Scottish highlands. Maybe West Coast but probably Easy Coast, Inverness area. Plus, when you see the amount of Cheshire w*****s with their range rovers who like have second homes over here, it can't be that depressing, you wouldn't buy a second home in a depressing place would you? 😉🤣

On the flip side, I've worked all over the UK, and generally find most places in England depressing. Flat, boring and depressing, for the most part. I like the Peak, bits of Yorkshire and Cornwall, that's it. Not been to Northumberland yet, but heard good things.

Like anywhere if you have money things are good like London.

But if you are born into a poor area and not managed to get yourself a decent wage then it must be a tough time.

Have been to North Wales and there are many scenic places. Not doubting that. Been to Scottish highlands too and beautiful there as well.

Would not consider living there though unless I was financially independent and didn't need to work.

Economic opportunities are limited in those places so many locals get left behind and live a miserable existence in many cases.

But yes.

If you have done well for yourself then they are good options to live there.

Most places are good if you don't need to worry about money like second home owners.

 

[TheChangeIsCast]

22 hours ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

Like anywhere if you have money things are good like London.

But if you are born into a poor area and not managed to get yourself a decent wage then it must be a tough time.

Have been to North Wales and there are many scenic places. Not doubting that. Been to Scottish highlands too and beautiful there as well.

Would not consider living there though unless I was financially independent and didn't need to work.

Economic opportunities are limited in those places so many locals get left behind and live a miserable existence in many cases.

But yes.

If you have done well for yourself then they are good options to live there.

Most places are good if you don't need to worry about money like second home owners.

 

Well like I say, I'm NE Wales, and it has the best of both worlds. Anywhere in Flintshire, Wrexham, or Denbighshire, and you have the best of both worlds really. All the scenery, and a lot of economic opportunities with it's proximity to Chester, Liverpool, and Manchester. You're right, in that living further into West Wales, Snowdonia, Anglesey, or the Scottish highlands, it does become more challenging economically, but you don't necessarily have to have a lot of money or be well off, it just depends on what you do. Like I couldn't yet live in the highlands, or Snowdonia, because my profession (for now) is in construction. Some of the happiest people I know live in these places though. I know a couple of accountants who are in the mountain rescue teams, one in the Breamar team in the Cairngorms, one in the Ogwen team (accountancy is good because firms everywhere need an accountant, so you can move pretty much anywhere and there will be a local firm somewhere who needs an accountant). Healthcare is good too, I know a few nurses who combine bank nurse work with outdoors work and mountain rescue volunteering. Also know a firefighter who combines that with mountain guiding work. None of these people are what I'd call well off, but they have great lifestyles nevertheless. 

of course, you're right in that there are undoubtedly poor people in Wales, who do live miserable lives, but to me, it doesn't seem to be any more prevalent than anywhere else in the UK really. Although places like Wales, and Cornwall are on paper some of the poorest places in Western Europe, 'poor' in an economic sense doesn't directly translate to 'living miserable lives'. Some poor people live miserable lives. Many poor people live great lives. I know that, because I see it directly through people I know. If I had to bet, I'd bet that leading a miserable life is actually more prevalent in places that are economically rich on paper.

[bartelbe]

The market is in the toilet, the brutal reality is home owners have battened down the hatches in a desperate hope house price inflation will return. There are so few houses on the market, that the data we are getting isn't very useful.

We are in the phoney war stage of the crash, with fewer houses being sold to cash buyers or FOMO buyers willing to stretch themselves with expensive mortgages, gambling that the bubble with reappear.

What is happening with new builds is interesting, with developers offering cash incentives, such as helping with deposits to buyers. In reality this is a house price fall but it is hidden because the developer can pretend they sold the house at full value. Thus preserving the fiction that their the rest of their developments aren't falling in value.

The fact developers are resorting to such things makes me suspect the market isn't as stable as bubble believers think it is. 

[The Angry Capitalist]

9 hours ago, TheChangeIsCast said:

Well like I say, I'm NE Wales, and it has the best of both worlds. Anywhere in Flintshire, Wrexham, or Denbighshire, and you have the best of both worlds really. All the scenery, and a lot of economic opportunities with it's proximity to Chester, Liverpool, and Manchester. You're right, in that living further into West Wales, Snowdonia, Anglesey, or the Scottish highlands, it does become more challenging economically, but you don't necessarily have to have a lot of money or be well off, it just depends on what you do. Like I couldn't yet live in the highlands, or Snowdonia, because my profession (for now) is in construction. Some of the happiest people I know live in these places though. I know a couple of accountants who are in the mountain rescue teams, one in the Breamar team in the Cairngorms, one in the Ogwen team (accountancy is good because firms everywhere need an accountant, so you can move pretty much anywhere and there will be a local firm somewhere who needs an accountant). Healthcare is good too, I know a few nurses who combine bank nurse work with outdoors work and mountain rescue volunteering. Also know a firefighter who combines that with mountain guiding work. None of these people are what I'd call well off, but they have great lifestyles nevertheless. 

of course, you're right in that there are undoubtedly poor people in Wales, who do live miserable lives, but to me, it doesn't seem to be any more prevalent than anywhere else in the UK really. Although places like Wales, and Cornwall are on paper some of the poorest places in Western Europe, 'poor' in an economic sense doesn't directly translate to 'living miserable lives'. Some poor people live miserable lives. Many poor people live great lives. I know that, because I see it directly through people I know. If I had to bet, I'd bet that leading a miserable life is actually more prevalent in places that are economically rich on paper.

You may have a point there.

[btd1981]

Timely article: 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

Hopefully we're entering a new phase in the cycle. Would be lovely to see a load of greedy Airbnbers get their fingers burned, but it's early days yet.

[nome]

23 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Timely article: 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

Hopefully we're entering a new phase in the cycle. Would be lovely to see a load of greedy Airbnbers get their fingers burned, but it's early days yet.

Not to mention how nice it would be if all the Faceybook, Ticky Tock and Insta morons return to their previous haunts on the beaches and bars of Tenerife and Benidorm ending this fad of flocking to the "great outdoors" for their coffee cup selfies.. and the UK national parks can be left for people who actually have respect and appreciation for the countryside. 

Edited April 7 by nome

[winkie]

On 05/04/2024 at 23:00, The Angry Capitalist said:

Like anywhere if you have money things are good like London.

But if you are born into a poor area and not managed to get yourself a decent wage then it must be a tough time.

Have been to North Wales and there are many scenic places. Not doubting that. Been to Scottish highlands too and beautiful there as well.

Would not consider living there though unless I was financially independent and didn't need to work.

Economic opportunities are limited in those places so many locals get left behind and live a miserable existence in many cases.

But yes.

If you have done well for yourself then they are good options to live there.

Most places are good if you don't need to worry about money like second home owners.

 

Things are not bad if poor and live in London......the only thing that makes London expensive is housing, don't have that to pay for London can be cheaper to live than most other places......don't have to spend much money living there, buses are cheap, fresh foods bought from independent continental stores of good value, CT cheaper, broadband and mobile data cheaper, lots of free entertainment available, can walk to most needs, parks to run and walk in, low cost supermarkets mixed in with the more costly ones, lots of banks still about and places where can still talk to people if need help or advice.......choices count for a lot, including choices of different people....not a bad place to live, not an expensive place to live unless want to make it expensive.